ATL: NANA - Remnants - Discussion

[EquusStorm]

Saved loop showing the nice outflow and banding. Not surprising this developed. Models don’t do well with micro storms:

https://i.postimg.cc/x8vmxqd5/goes16-vis-16-L-202009011535.gif

Such a pretty thing. But it seems like a lot of the sat loops I've seen lately have been jumping around. Is something going on with them?

I think that's the storm centered loops just re-centering

[lrak]

Ridging is well-established north of Grandma. She’s on a beeline for a Central American burial. Let’s just hope she’s not a bitter old lady before that happens.

Is that why all the outflow is to the west of "grandma?"

Yes. She is being steered by a stacked deep layer ridge to the north which goes all the way up to the 200mb level. In other words, she ain’t got the strength to climb the stairs and the elevator is broken.

Thank you....I'm learning for a change

[AnnularCane]

Saved loop showing the nice outflow and banding. Not surprising this developed. Models don’t do well with micro storms:

https://i.postimg.cc/x8vmxqd5/goes16-vis-16-L-202009011535.gif

Such a pretty thing. But it seems like a lot of the sat loops I've seen lately have been jumping around. Is something going on with them?

I think that's the storm centered loops just re-centering

I guess I've just been looking at them at the wrong times.

[MississippiWx]

If Nana still has a closed eye wall, I will eat my shoe (or pick my own switch...whichever she makes me do). I could see a partial eye wall being possible, but satellite imagery doesn’t give the impression of a closed eye-wall.

Still think she will be a hurricane before landfall.

[lrak]

she ain’t got the strength to climb the stairs and the elevator is broken.

Climbing the stairs is the "beta drift?"

[wxman57]

LMFAO!!!!
GFS totally misses the ML Vort in the Yucatan Channel.
We might see a little Fuji dance.
Wait when the models put in that recon drop there and the pinhole eye.

https://i.imgur.com/zvCdQv2.png

https://i.imgur.com/kxqz3Dz.png

Don't laugh too hard, it's not at 500 mb, it's an upper-level low, which the GFS sees well.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020090112/gfs_uv200_watl_2.png

You are right, I just checked CIMSS and it is an ULL.
Thanks.

However, you do make a good point. So far, all models kept this system very weak, sort of like Marco. As such, they keep it moving west into CA. What would the models do with a stronger TS, as far as steering currents? Would it act like Marco and accelerate northward? Well, maybe not northward, since there's a big ridge to its north, but I do see an opening for it to reach the SW Gulf and possibly NE Mexico or the TX coast as a stronger storm. I'm not forecasting that yet, but it's something to watch for as at least a possibility.

[GCANE]

High rain-rate tower firing 17N just shy of 80W.
Could be very near the CoC.
It just starting to get into the 3500 CAPE air.

[lrak]

Don't laugh too hard, it's not at 500 mb, it's an upper-level low, which the GFS sees well.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020090112/gfs_uv200_watl_2.png

You are right, I just checked CIMSS and it is an ULL.
Thanks.

However, you do make a good point. So far, all models kept this system very weak, sort of like Marco. As such, they keep it moving west into CA. What would the models do with a stronger TS, as far as steering currents? Would it act like Marco and accelerate northward? Well, maybe not northward, since there's a big ridge to its north, but I do see an opening for it to reach the SW Gulf and possibly NE Mexico or the TX coast as a stronger storm. I'm not forecasting that yet, but it's something to watch for as at least a possibility.

wxman57 I've never read any hypothetical forecasting from you...I will stay tuned.

[GCANE]

Recon on the way.

[ThetaE]

Don't laugh too hard, it's not at 500 mb, it's an upper-level low, which the GFS sees well.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020090112/gfs_uv200_watl_2.png

You are right, I just checked CIMSS and it is an ULL.
Thanks.

However, you do make a good point. So far, all models kept this system very weak, sort of like Marco. As such, they keep it moving west into CA. What would the models do with a stronger TS, as far as steering currents? Would it act like Marco and accelerate northward? Well, maybe not northward, since there's a big ridge to its north, but I do see an opening for it to reach the SW Gulf and possibly NE Mexico or the TX coast as a stronger storm. I'm not forecasting that yet, but it's something to watch for as at least a possibility.

It doesn't matter how you cut it, CIMSS' mean-layer steering charts all show due easterly motion straight into Central America. Like you said, the ridge is strong. Of course, these steering charts are a crude way to estimate storm motion since they are static snapshots.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

[GCANE]

Uh oh, looks like they are turning around and dropping.

[wxman57]

However, you do make a good point. So far, all models kept this system very weak, sort of like Marco. As such, they keep it moving west into CA. What would the models do with a stronger TS, as far as steering currents? Would it act like Marco and accelerate northward? Well, maybe not northward, since there's a big ridge to its north, but I do see an opening for it to reach the SW Gulf and possibly NE Mexico or the TX coast as a stronger storm. I'm not forecasting that yet, but it's something to watch for as at least a possibility.

wxman57 I've never read any hypothetical forecasting from you...I will stay tuned.[/quote]

I think that the ridge to the north will be strong enough to keep it moving westward. However, on very rare occasions, I've seen storms misbehave...

[lrak]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/movies/wg8dlm2/wg8dlm2_loop.html this morning it looked like a sure straight line to CA. The loop shows the steering weakening.

Understood wxman57...

[FireRat]

Just checking in to see how my Nana is doing,
I see she's on a Caribbean cruise, I guess she's heading to Belize.

[GCANE]

Nothing from recon for half hour.

[Laminar]

Looks like they turned back? I see new flights for tomorrow.

[MarioProtVI]

Nothing from recon for half hour.

Thinking they aborted or something, maybe plane issues. Sucks because we won’t know the true intensity for another 12 hours..

[Emmett_Brown]

Nana sure is moving quickly. I think she needs to slow in order to stay closed.

[Nimbus]

Uh oh, looks like they are turning around and dropping.

That is the Black Bay oil field near the edge of Breton Sound, southeast of New Orleans?

[GCANE]

Just past 80W.
High rain rate and symmetrical dispersion.