ATL: SALLY - Models

[PTPatrick]

Gfs rolling. Thru 24 hrs a north East of last run. It initialized a little weak but not sure gfs resolves that very well anyway. Guessing 1002 on gfs I probably akin to 990s anyway.

Looks like it will come more East of the mouth if ms this time but hard to say after.

At 30 still a bit East of the mouth. Couple mb weaker

36 hr it bumps a tad west south west to still come to the mouth...not sure I buy that. To me that just spells slowdown ...strength catches back up to last run though

By 48 bumps just east side of New Orleans up the pearl River state line almost. A good jump East from last couple runs. Expect to see hmon and Hwrf follow. We shall see.

[MidnightRain]

Gfs rolling. Thru 24 hrs a north East of last run. It initialized a little weak but not sure gfs resolves that very well anyway. Guessing 1002 on gfs I probably akin to 990s anyway.

Looks like it will come more East of the mouth if ms this time but hard to say after.

At 30 still a bit East of the mouth. Couple mb weaker

36 hr it bumps a tad west south west to still come to the mouth...not sure I buy that. To me that just spells slowdown ...strength catches back up to last run though

Models seem to be agreeing on a west “shove” just prior to landfall.

[pcolaman]

Icon is east now . LOL

[PTPatrick]

Gfs rolling. Thru 24 hrs a north East of last run. It initialized a little weak but not sure gfs resolves that very well anyway. Guessing 1002 on gfs I probably akin to 990s anyway.

Looks like it will come more East of the mouth if ms this time but hard to say after.

At 30 still a bit East of the mouth. Couple mb weaker

36 hr it bumps a tad west south west to still come to the mouth...not sure I buy that. To me that just spells slowdown ...strength catches back up to last run though

Models seem to be agreeing on a west “shove” just prior to landfall.

With this icon and gfs run I would not be surprised to see the suites pull back to a final Shell beach or Hancock Or even Harrison county landfall. They have more of a center now and the cake is nearly baked. The problem is steering at 36-48 hrs looks to weaken. That slow down near the mouth of the river really opens up options from AL to Baton Rouge. Slow down and turn in this region is Always a tricky proposition, but I think storms in this area more often than not end up a tad East of their 48 Hr points. Hence, I am feeling like East side of Nola to west of Biloxi seems to be the target zone.

[pcolaman]

Gfs rolling. Thru 24 hrs a north East of last run. It initialized a little weak but not sure gfs resolves that very well anyway. Guessing 1002 on gfs I probably akin to 990s anyway.

Looks like it will come more East of the mouth if ms this time but hard to say after.

At 30 still a bit East of the mouth. Couple mb weaker

36 hr it bumps a tad west south west to still come to the mouth...not sure I buy that. To me that just spells slowdown ...strength catches back up to last run though

Models seem to be agreeing on a west “shove” just prior to landfall.

With this icon and gfs run I would not be surprised to see the suites pull back to a final Shell beach or Hancock Or even Harrison county landfall. They have more of a center now and the cake is nearly baked. The problem is steering at 36-48 hrs looks to weaken. That slow down near the mouth of the river really opens up options from AL to Baton Rouge. Slow down and turn in this region is Always a tricky proposition, but I think storms in this area more often than not end up a tad East of their 48 Hr points. Hence, I am feeling like East side of Nola to west of Biloxi seems to be the target zone.

The thing I noticed that it takes almost 24 hours to finally make it on shore being so close to land . Thats kinda scary to see.

[gatorcane]

Saved GFS loop:

[PTPatrick]

Gfs rolling. Thru 24 hrs a north East of last run. It initialized a little weak but not sure gfs resolves that very well anyway. Guessing 1002 on gfs I probably akin to 990s anyway.

Looks like it will come more East of the mouth if ms this time but hard to say after.

At 30 still a bit East of the mouth. Couple mb weaker

36 hr it bumps a tad west south west to still come to the mouth...not sure I buy that. To me that just spells slowdown ...strength catches back up to last run though

Models seem to be agreeing on a west “shove” just prior to landfall.

With this icon and gfs run I would not be surprised to see the suites pull back to a final Shell beach or Hancock Or even Harrison county landfall. They have more of a center now and the cake is nearly baked. The problem is steering at 36-48 hrs looks to weaken. That slow down near the mouth of the river really opens up options from AL to Baton Rouge. Slow down and turn in this region is Always a tricky proposition, but I think storms in this area more often than not end up a tad East of their 48 Hr points. Hence, I am feeling like East side of Nola to west of Biloxi seems to be the target zone.

CMC is in to 60 hrs. Much of the Early track is west of its previous but it seems that it pull something similar to GFs with slow down near the mouth and then lifting north toward the eastern nola metro then state line.


Edit: 12z hmon coming in a tad stronger thru 15 hrs and northeast of 06z. At 24 hrs still northeast of last run and has a cat 1 due south of Pcola heading west toward the mouth. At 33 it’s much stronger this run with near cat 2 south of mobile bay. By 48 running a cat 3 toward Mississippi coast.

Edit: adding 12z Hwrf notes. Also slightly stronger and NE of 6z at 12 z but Still barely a cane then. Will be interesting to see if it gets to cane strength today. 12z initialized better. Oddly enough it weakens a tad overnight on the Hwrf. By 30 it’s looking more like ms this run...finally strength ting on approach off the MS sound but probably too late.

[gatorcane]

12Z HWRF looking similar to the 06Z out through 30 hours so far. Doesn’t look like it will be nearly as intense as the 00Z:

[PTPatrick]

Yeah based on under performance thus far I’m leaning more toward Hwrf than hmon. It looks like conditions will just be too little too late.

Hmon going for a landfall in Pascagoula/Grand bay...guessing at this Point weaker Is going to mean more Harrison and Hancock and stronger means faster turn ne toward Jackson county

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Chances of a significant hurricane (Cat 3+) have greatly reduced today.

[PTPatrick]

To summarize 12 z we have:

GFs shifted East: tracks over the mouth and up the pearl river.
CMC shifted west, tracks over East Nola then pearl river.
Hmon: shifted East, Major hurricane landfall near ms/al border
Hwrf: shifted East, strong TS /cat 1 landfall Over the mouth of the pearl river


Have hard time seeing how NhC doesn’t shift track back to east side of Nola at 5 pm and extend hurricane warning to Mobile bay. Good news is even if it goes that Far East it seems hmon is solo in depicting a significant hurricane

[gatorcane]

12Z HWRF saved loop:

[LowerAlabamaTider]

I can imagine everyone at the NHC are scratching their heads right now. The lack of steering is something not even the models can settle in on. Not to mention everyone from NO to P’Cola along the coast.

[Sailingtime]

Chances of a significant hurricane (Cat 3+) have greatly reduced today.

This is great news. No one needs the damage a major can do.

[Steve]

The European.

Btw, shout out to poster/promet The European.

[PTPatrick]

12 z euro straight over New Orleans from the west side of the mouth. Not much track change really. Just stronger than 0z

[Steve]

12 z euro straight over New Orleans from the west side of the mouth. Not much track change really. Just stronger than 0z

A day near/over the city - quality TS/Cat1. Possibly the strongest hit since Isaac (good TS). Other than him, you’d have to go back to Katrina for even Cat 1 winds. We’ve had a ton of fringe and close by stuff (slept through Ophelia which did bring TS winds) since Juan. Only Bill of centers that had weather that I can think of passed over since Florence ‘88. We will see. I got home from Pensacola and am looking to ride things out here. All preps are mostly done except a late nonessential food run. So it’s NFL today, here and models.

[Steve]

Oh for King Arabian, US Tropics or anyone who has the European rainfall totals from this run please show or describe. Looks like parts of MS could exceed 2’ with that Euro track

[PTrackerLA]

12z Euro precip

[Steve]

Thanks Patrick. 16 inches of rain in the city with surge raising the lakes. Lol. That’s not good.