ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[robbielyn]

Downpours in Broward County right now

Same here in Port Saint Lucie. Was out grocery shopping and the heavy bands are already flooding roads and parking lots, and this is just the beginning.

Wow that’s incredible already

[JDHoss]

Downpours in Broward County right now

Same here in Port Saint Lucie. Was out grocery shopping and the heavy bands are already flooding roads and parking lots, and this is just the beginning.

It was literally raining sideways here in The Fort about 40 minutes ago.

[caneseddy]

60 mph winds..994 mb per 1pm advisory

[AutoPenalti]

Wow, if this stacked this would have been a hurricane.

[chaser1]

Strong fast moving squalls looking most concentrated around Port St Lucie, but especially training across the FLL area. And this stuff is well north of the thick mass associated with the old frontal trough across the Florida straits now and slowing lifting northward beginning to affect the Keys now. A wet windy 3 days for sure. Curious to see if T.S. warnings will soon be extended as far north as the Cape area; perhaps later this evening.

[Evil Jeremy]

60 mph winds..994 mb per 1pm advisory

Special advisory too. NHC still only forecasting an additional 5mph of strengthening, then holding 65mph for 48 hours.

[lhpfish]

I thought we expected to see a pocket of favorable conditions once ETA rolls off Cuba, is still the case?

[AutoPenalti]

I thought we expected to see a pocket of favorable conditions once ETA rolls off Cuba, is still the case?

Once past Cuba, it’s expected to slow down and meander over slightly warmer waters (over the gulf stream) and encounter favorable conditions.

[Nuno]

I thought we expected to see a pocket of favorable conditions once ETA rolls off Cuba, is still the case?

Once past Cuba, it’s expected to slow down and meander over slightly warmer waters (over the gulf stream) and encounter favorable conditions.

Which makes the lack of hurricane watches bizarre. The NHC must be really confident in its intensity leveling off below hurricane strength

[Jr0d]

Minor flooding so far in Key West, its been a rainy morning. A lot more rain for the rest of the day. I am thinking we will get a dry window before Eta makes that left turn towards us, then more flooding plus surge.

Sally gave us widespread flooding but some areas got 10"+ in less than a day. It could be just as bad if not worse, even the predicted minor surge will enhance flooding because it will prevent the rain water from running off.

Best case scenerio for us is Eta to stay north. The next model run will be crucial for our planing. I am not liking the WSW track the GFS keeps hinting at.

[chaser1]

Looks to me as if Eta is now reaching it's peak. Eyewall attempting to form on it's north quad but dry air seems to be decaying convection immediately to the south of center. Tops warming significantly there. I could be wrong and new convective bursting south of center could increase but at this point I'd hedge that Eta will begin to start taking on a more sub-tropical "comma" appearance. That tells me that it's time for lunch

[NDG]

Unbelievable how gusty the winds have gotten already here in east central FL when I went to the store, no doubt TS force will reach this area tomorrow night and Monday.

[ElectricStorm]

Wow up to 60mph already, that escalated a lot quicker than I thought it would, not sure if it could become a hurricane or not but if it keeps this up it has a shot.

[robbielyn]

I thought we expected to see a pocket of favorable conditions once ETA rolls off Cuba, is still the case?

only if the dry air doesn’t get entrained into the llc. it should start entraining into the system only partially before cuba preventing it from bombing. if it swings wide to east part of fl and the dry air does not get into the center before landfall, we will have chance at 983mb and stronger winds. hwrf and Levi thinks this is could happen. but dry air could get in the center of llc if so weaker winds and hybrid.

[robbielyn]

Unbelievable how gusty the winds have gotten already here in east central FL when I went to the store, no doubt TS force will reach this area tomorrow night and Monday.

yes here too spring hill two counties north of tampa due to upper level trough.

[AutoPenalti]

Convection appears to be waning on the left flank. However, towers are beginning to fire near the LLC.

[gatorcane]

Some wind and rain, we can handle it here. Nobody here by the beach is putting up shutters and the grocery store looks like a normal day. Doubt we will see widespread power outages. Thankfully none of the models show rapid strengthening and time is running out. Good thing it is November and not October

[Patrick99]

Not too much here in Miami yet today. Solid clouds and breezy with just a brief shower earlier.

[blacktopninja]

Just looking at this setup right now on synoptic models has me thinking the SE Metro areas of FL are going to get inundated with 10-12" accumulations areawide. Those of us in Broward and Palm Beach can already tell that convergence setting up as showers from the coast move inland. There's an area north of 595 that had widespread 1 to 2" of rain in the last hour, and those tend to under-estimate ground observations. This is just north of Pembroke and my location in Cooper City, and there's already another healthy band over the immediate Atlantic waters heading to our area. I don't the estimates of posters that think totals will be 10-15 or 15-20", check out some of the latest short-range models. Some locations today could receive 2-6" of rain within the next 12 hours, or 25-100% of totals for a storm that will be sitting around the area over the next 3 days.

[AdamFirst]

Some wind and rain, we can handle it here. Nobody here by the beach is putting up shutters and the grocery store looks like a normal day. Doubt we will see widespread power outages. Thankfully none of the models show rapid strengthening and time is running out. Good thing it is November and not October

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