ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

Parts of Broward now in 59-73 mph updated NWS Miami

[TheProfessor]

Hurricane-force winds found.

I would imagine the NHC will issue another intermediate advisory within an hour or so, with recon finding stronger winds..

The 1 PM advisory comes up in 48 minutes or so, they'll likely just wait till then.

[wxman57]

I can see dry air being entrained into the SW quadrant now, just as the models had been predicting as Eta approaches Cuba. That should put a lid on strengthening later this afternoon. Don't like the 12Z GFS - keeping Eta offshore for another 8-9 days spinning down in the Gulf.

[jlauderdal]

Parts of Broward now in 59-73 mph updated NWS Miami

All of it will be and PBC, like vote counting,be patient

[underthwx]

Hurricane-force winds found.

I would imagine the NHC will issue another intermediate advisory within an hour or so, with recon finding stronger winds..

The 1 PM advisory comes up in 48 minutes or so, they'll likely just wait till then.

Ah yes...I keep forgetting yall are an hour ahead of me!...thanks for your reply

[Nimbus]

The upper level winds outline the former trough, high cirrus starting to rotate NW around an ULL. I'm thinking that low may center a little west of forecast. Waiting for the 18Z models to verify but this is looking like there might be a slowdown in the track speed under more favorable conditions.

[robbielyn]

12z HWRF has it swinging east to Andros then swing west across south florida peninsula but shows 983mb before east coast of landfall.

[SFLcane]

Parts of Broward now in 59-73 mph updated NWS Miami

All of it will be and PBC, like vote counting,be patient

Yet not under a warning.

[Aric Dunn]

Yep definitely a partial eyewall developing.. well on its way.

[Blown Away]

Wow, that's quite a band.

https://img.techpowerup.org/201107/recon-af309-1029a-eta.png

Does that graphic imply the LLC might be farther SE?

[robbielyn]

I can see dry air being entrained into the SW quadrant now, just as the models had been predicting as Eta approaches Cuba. That should put a lid on strengthening later this afternoon. Don't like the 12Z GFS - keeping Eta offshore for another 8-9 days spinning down in the Gulf.

but it stays offshore and ends up dying out in panhandle. It does get close to sw coast before it swings out west and hits panhandle at 1010mb. it never gets higher than 999 near the sw coast before going way to the west. so i’m just curious when you say u don’t like that what’s so bad about it exactly? I just want to understand why u said that that’s all i mean by asking.

[CrazyC83]

55 kt looks reasonable based on the data I'm seeing. The SFMR is probably a bit high but the structure and pressure are good clues.

[chaser1]

12z HWRF has it swinging east to Andros then swing west across south florida peninsula but shows 983mb before east coast of landfall.

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#3126 Postby chaser1 » Sat Nov 07, 2020 12:31 pm

Nimbus wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
10:00 am_19.6W/81.8W_40 mph
11:00 am_19.7W/81.5W_50 mph

.1N and .3E past hour = ENE not NE


The low hasn't cut off in the gulf yet and the track could take a larger circumference.
18Z models..


uh oh...... That would suggest a track further east and north. That might imply a U-turn closer to Andros (?) perhaps and would imply a potential landfall maybe as far north as Broward/Palm Beach.
---------

Yep, that's pretty much what HWRF told us during a conference call a short while ago

[skyline385]

Is Eta RI'ing? The NHC update and recon data puts it much ahead of the last HWRF run...

[CrazyC83]

Is Eta RI'ing? The NHC update and recon data puts it much ahead of the last HWRF run...

Appears that way. Winds I would guess are 55 kt (65 mph).

[Aric Dunn]

12z HWRF has it swinging east to Andros then swing west across south florida peninsula but shows 983mb before east coast of landfall.

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#3126 Postby chaser1 » Sat Nov 07, 2020 12:31 pm

Nimbus wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
10:00 am_19.6W/81.8W_40 mph
11:00 am_19.7W/81.5W_50 mph

.1N and .3E past hour = ENE not NE


The low hasn't cut off in the gulf yet and the track could take a larger circumference.
18Z models..


uh oh...... That would suggest a track further east and north. That might imply a U-turn closer to Andros (?) perhaps and would imply a potential landfall maybe as far north as Broward/Palm Beach.
---------

Yep, that's pretty much what HWRF told us during a conference call a short while ago

Imentioned earlier farther east swing is possible.

but we have to wait for 18z models to initialized correctly and see.

[chaser1]

Is Eta RI'ing? The NHC update puts it much ahead of the last HWRF run...

Seems like it. Whether this quick uptick will soon end due to dry air immediately encroaching to the west and southwest of the storm is the $100,000 question. I would guess that any significant slow down OR decrease in convection would spell the beginning of a sub-tropical transition. This could begin by evening. On the other hand, an intensifying eye feature becoming further embedded within the overall envelope might fend off dry air intrusion if it could accelerate northeastward for a while. That seems to be the big question - for how long.

[Cat5James]

Downpours in Broward County right now

[chaser1]

12z HWRF has it swinging east to Andros then swing west across south florida peninsula but shows 983mb before east coast of landfall.

---------
#3126 Postby chaser1 » Sat Nov 07, 2020 12:31 pm

Nimbus wrote:
Blown Away wrote:
10:00 am_19.6W/81.8W_40 mph
11:00 am_19.7W/81.5W_50 mph

.1N and .3E past hour = ENE not NE


The low hasn't cut off in the gulf yet and the track could take a larger circumference.
18Z models..


uh oh...... That would suggest a track further east and north. That might imply a U-turn closer to Andros (?) perhaps and would imply a potential landfall maybe as far north as Broward/Palm Beach.
---------

Yep, that's pretty much what HWRF told us during a conference call a short while ago

Imentioned earlier farther east swing is possible.

but we have to wait for 18z models to initialized correctly and see.

Speed of forward motion likely to be key here. Faster would suggest a greater potential for this to occur. Slower might allow enough time for the cut-off to pull Eta more poleward a bit quicker. Wouldn't that be something though, if 18Z data began to sniff out a less southeast progressing cut-off low (or even a cut-off depicted to retrograde instead )

[AdamFirst]

Downpours in Broward County right now

Same here in Port Saint Lucie. Was out grocery shopping and the heavy bands are already flooding roads and parking lots, and this is just the beginning.