ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wzrgirl1]

NHC website has/had a “Hurricane ETA” header a few minutes ago just FYI...

So does Max Tracker.

[Kazmit]

Classic looking strong TS

[chaser1]

It seems like the deep convection led to the formation of a mesovortex, with locally stronger winds and a tight pressure gradient. However, this structure seems very tilted. If convection does not persist, I could easily see this feature collapsing over the next couple of hours and the system transitions back to a sheared mess. On the other hand, if convection does persist, the feature can become better aligned and lead to the development of a deeper TC. For now, it seems the deepest convection is firing to the east of this feature, which makes me wonder if we will see yet another attempt at a center reformation down the road. Previous HWRF runs hinted at this.

This pretty much nails it. Simply based upon present appearance and persistence of convection, i'd have to think we'll be seeing Hurricane Warnings lifted for a portion of the Cuba coastline shortly. One other thing that should be noted - while dry air is immediately encroaching on Eta from the West, the moisture/humidty immediately north of Cuba is uber-thick. That layer will likely soon begin to move northward over the Keys and S. Florida. That could well be your "first 4-6" for this event.

[underthwx]

Classic looking strong TS

https://img.techpowerup.org/201107/goes16162020312ossfa5.jpg

That is a great image!

[dandeliongum]

In Pembroke Pines here. Friends of mine weren't even aware there was a system approaching and they're usually the type to be prepared. Hardly any mention of the storm on local news sites, too.

My local NWS predicts 25-35 mph winds in my area with gusts to 40-50~.

[chaser1]

10:00 am_19.6W/81.8W_40 mph
11:00 am_19.7W/81.5W_50 mph

.1N and .3E past hour = ENE not NE

The low hasn't cut off in the gulf yet and the track could take a larger circumference.
18Z models..

uh oh...... That would suggest a track further east and north. That might imply a U-turn closer to Andros (?) perhaps and would imply a potential landfall maybe as far north as Broward/Palm Beach.

[Cat5James]

In Pembroke Pines here. Friends of mine weren't even aware there was a system approaching and they're usually the type to be prepared. Hardly any mention of the storm on local news sites, too.

My local NWS predicts 25-35 mph winds in my area with gusts to 40-50~.

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/50576582917_40d705302e_c.jpg

These maps were updated after the last advisory... Pembroke Pines would now fall under the Orange colored section where winds of 58-73 mph are possible.

[underthwx]

It seems like the deep convection led to the formation of a mesovortex, with locally stronger winds and a tight pressure gradient. However, this structure seems very tilted. If convection does not persist, I could easily see this feature collapsing over the next couple of hours and the system transitions back to a sheared mess. On the other hand, if convection does persist, the feature can become better aligned and lead to the development of a deeper TC. For now, it seems the deepest convection is firing to the east of this feature, which makes me wonder if we will see yet another attempt at a center reformation down the road. Previous HWRF runs hinted at this.

This pretty much nails it. Simply based upon present appearance and persistence of convection, i'd have to think we'll be seeing Hurricane Warnings lifted for a portion of the Cuba coastline shortly. One other thing that should be noted - while dry air is immediately encroaching on Eta from the West, the moisture/humidty immediately north of Cuba is uber-thick. That layer will likely soon begin to move northward over the Keys and S. Florida. That could well be your "first 4-6" for this event.

Yes, ETA may very well be affecting the peninsula for some time to come, hopefully ETA will get picked up by a front, and accelerate out of the region

[Mouton]

On the WV loop, I can kinda see the "wall" descending from the Carolinas that it's going to start to run into eventually.

It is the expanding pressure boundary.

Looks to me on sat it is heading to a landing in Cuba around 79w. Water temps on north side cuba about 2c below those on south side too. Combo of land interaction and slightly cooler sea temps should put a throttle on it especially if it gets some dry air immersion. Once north of cuba it begins running into the pillow effect of the high 1029mb to its north so unless it can get under it to the east, doubtful, it will slow down and begin shifting back to the NW. I am horrible on intensity forecast but will go ahead with a top 80MPH and declining once it reaches the GOM given the water temps there near florida around 25C. That said, the wind field will exist quite far in the NE portion of the storm.

[Aric Dunn]

Definitely an eyewall coming together.

https://www.rainviewer.com/map.html?loc ... &sm=0&sn=0

[Kazmit]

Wow, that's quite a band.

[chaser1]

Definitely an eyewall coming together.

https://www.rainviewer.com/map.html?loc ... &sm=0&sn=0

Yeah, i'm looking at that warm spot NW of GC. Boy, and yet that dry slot is increasingly encroaching to the southwest. We've seriously entered the "now-cast" zone lol

[AutoPenalti]

TWC mentioning that convection is diminishing rapidly. May not become a Hurricane once it crosses Cuba...


Uh...?

[chaser1]

Side note:

14N & 74W - "Spawn of Eta" .... coming to a theater near you

[underthwx]

Side note:

14N & 74W - "Spawn of Eta" .... coming to a theater near you

Lol...

[jlauderdal]

On the WV loop, I can kinda see the "wall" descending from the Carolinas that it's going to start to run into eventually.

It is the expanding pressure boundary.

Looks to me on sat it is heading to a landing in Cuba around 79w. Water temps on north side cuba about 2c below those on south side too. Combo of land interaction and slightly cooler sea temps should put a throttle on it especially if it gets some dry air immersion. Once north of cuba it begins running into the pillow effect of the high 1029mb to its north so unless it can get under it to the east, doubtful, it will slow down and begin shifting back to the NW. I am horrible on intensity forecast but will go ahead with a top 80MPH and declining once it reaches the GOM given the water temps there near florida around 25C. That said, the wind field will exist quite far in the NE portion of the storm.

Fyi,79w is east of fort lauderdale

[underthwx]

Out of curiosity, I looked up the longest lasting cyclone on record, and found that Hurricane John, also known as Typhoon John, was active from August 11th, 1994 to September 13th, 1994. 4 weeks, 2 days.... I wonder will ETA surpass the record?

[Kazmit]

Hurricane-force winds found.

[Mouton]

Fyi,79w is east of fort lauderdale

I know exactly where it is but thanks for recognizing that.

[underthwx]

Hurricane-force winds found.

I would imagine the NHC will issue another intermediate advisory within an hour or so, with recon finding stronger winds..