ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Mosaic of Cuba radar since Grand Cayaman radar is down..

sure looks like an eyewall forming there.

[Cat5James]

Pressure has fallen like a rock with that center reformation. Now down to the low 990s.

Does ETA have potential to achieve Category 1 status?....or will the combination of crossing Cuba, and moving into drier air limit it's strengthing?

From what I've seen Eta will encounter the best conditions yet for strengthening after it passes Cuba and approaches FL... if we have a strong TS emerge past Cuba a Category 1 Hurricane seems very possible.

[underthwx]

Pressure has fallen like a rock with that center reformation. Now down to the low 990s.

Does ETA have potential to achieve Category 1 status?....or will the combination of crossing Cuba, and moving into drier air limit it's strengthing?

From what I've seen Eta will encounter the best conditions yet for strengthening after it passes Cuba and approaches FL... if we have a strong TS emerge past Cuba a Category 1 Hurricane seems very possible.

I have to agree with you, the 11 am advisory notes that recon is finding stronger winds, the NHC states that an intermediate advisory may be required in the next hour or two, if the recon finds even stronger winds...so I would not be surprised if ETA attains minimal Hurricane status at some point...thankyou for your reply!

[shansgonefishin]

NHC have increased winds to 50mph

[cycloneye]

Atention to this.

 https://twitter.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/1325106959033495552

[NDG]

Eta may be making a run at hurricane intensity this afternoon. Beyond then, though, the dry air should be moving in from the west. Eta's structure will change to more of a subtropical appearance, with tropical storm-force winds extending over 200 miles north of the center as it nears Florida. Such storms are less prone to rapid intensity changes. Could be a hurricane as it passes Florida Monday morning. No school for you, Miami!

I agree with you, but it could regain some tropical characteristics back again as it tracks over the very warm gulf stream when is SE of FL Sunday night as the shear drops over it.

[Evil Jeremy]

NHC have increased winds to 50mph

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND STRONGER WINDS
IN ETA...

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds in Eta have increased to 50 mph.
The plane is still investigating Eta at this time. If it finds
stronger winds, a special advisory may be required during the next
hour or two.

[chaser1]

55kts SMFR unflagged. Hurricane warnings may be necessary for the Bahanas, S. Florida and the Keys.

Looking much better than 6 hours ago. If this can consolidate tonight, watch out!

My guess is that it will hit Cuba just as it might be starting to ramp up to near H, and this is why it's not projected to be one. After, I don't know..........from what I've gleaned from historical tracks, Cuba really doesn't seem to do all that much to storms that hit it from the south and cross it reasonably quickly.

Wow, talk about a race against time for Eta. On one hand Eta appears to be rapidly organizing and deepening nicely. COC will have to further tuck itself within and under the deepest convection to it's east and north. In doing so, i'd agree with Jr0d that Eta could briefly be a hurricane prior to Cuba landfall. Oddly, whatever weakening that occurs shortly thereafter will likely have less to do with land interaction (which the storm could easily regain) but probably everything to do with the extent of dry air entrainment that might be occurring .... or soon after Eta emerges into the Florida Straits. Right now, one can plainly see on WV loop that the easternmost dry slot has practically caught up to the storm's western flank. As I see it, the timing of greatest risk to South Florida will probably be most dependent on Eta maintaining or increasing it's forward speed while also beginning it's turn toward the north. It'll be a race again how fast that dry air can penetrate into the storms core

[SouthDadeFish]

It seems like the deep convection led to the formation of a mesovortex, with locally stronger winds and a tight pressure gradient. However, this structure seems very tilted. If convection does not persist, I could easily see this feature collapsing over the next couple of hours and the system transitions back to a sheared mess. On the other hand, if convection does persist, the feature can become better aligned and lead to the development of a deeper TC. For now, it seems the deepest convection is firing to the east of this feature, which makes me wonder if we will see yet another attempt at a center reformation down the road. Previous HWRF runs hinted at this.

[NDG]

NHC have increased winds to 50mph

Still conservative, with recon finding 60 knot flight level winds.

[Weatherboy1]

NHC website has/had a “Hurricane ETA” header a few minutes ago just FYI...

[underthwx]

Mosaic of Cuba radar since Grand Cayaman radar is down..

sure looks like an eyewall forming there.

https://i.ibb.co/7jpgY7C/Capture.png

I agree...I watched ETA pretty much throughout last night, and the cyclone has definitely made it's expected comeback....Chapter 30 of ETA...

[Blown Away]

10:00 am_19.6W/81.8W_40 mph
11:00 am_19.7W/81.5W_50 mph

.1N and .3E past hour = ENE not NE

[Dean4Storms]

It looked to me that Recon found 60mph winds, were they flagged?

[Weatherboy1]

NHC website has/had a “Hurricane ETA” header a few minutes ago just FYI...

Fixed now. Then again at this rate??

[HURRICANELONNY]

It's back to a tropical storm. Sick of the weekend rains. If ETA center went over me and went out to sea probably just be some wind and showers. But track has the dirty side right over me. Maybe some power outages. Funny if it was sept. People would be running to get supplies. Now it's nov. most people can give a crap. The virus and election I think took the wind out of peoples sails.

[Evil Jeremy]

It looked to me that Recon found 60mph winds, were they flagged?

IMO NHC wants to get one more pass to make sure those numbers hold, hence their update suggesting we could have a special advisory in the coming hours.

[Cat5James]

The tallest mountains in central Cuba are located just west of 80 W. I'm wondering if the center of Eta is going to pass East of these mountains.. looks like its going to be close.

[Nimbus]

10:00 am_19.6W/81.8W_40 mph
11:00 am_19.7W/81.5W_50 mph

.1N and .3E past hour = ENE not NE

The low hasn't cut off in the gulf yet and the track could take a larger circumference.
18Z models..

[boca]

Is it possible that the turn happens in the central Bahamas?