ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nimbus]

I don't see that at all.

It’s there, check out the SE.

No outflow boundaries. especially not on the SE side.

Those were from the weakening low level center after it "jumped" to the new location.
You can have a system that is tilted the higher you go but once the base jumps (like a tornado) the new center becomes dominant and we get some outflow boundaries SW of the convection.

[Aric Dunn]

Being farther east sooner and stronger with a vertical core structure developing. Models will have to adjust.

some of those earlier runs where Eta Swung out to the central bahamas before turning back west. might be in play now.

So the GFS is running now still shows a S FL hit should it be considered a garbage run not accounting the center relocation to the NE.

All this new data did not make it into the 12z models. will have to wait for 18z.

[AutoPenalti]

Wow, pressure is falling rapidly.

[NDG]

Outflow boundaries still pooping out on the southeast side.

I don't see that at all.

It’s there, check out the SE.

I still don't see any outflow boundaries moving away from the LLC on its SE quadrant.

[Patrick99]

55kts SMFR unflagged. Hurricane warnings may be necessary for the Bahanas, S. Florida and the Keys.

Looking much better than 6 hours ago. If this can consolidate tonight, watch out!

My guess is that it will hit Cuba just as it might be starting to ramp up to near H, and this is why it's not projected to be one. After, I don't know..........from what I've gleaned from historical tracks, Cuba really doesn't seem to do all that much to storms that hit it from the south and cross it reasonably quickly.

[AutoPenalti]

It’s there, check out the SE.

No outflow boundaries. especially not on the SE side.

Those were from the weakening low level center after it "jumped" to the new location.
You can have a system that is tilted the higher you go but once the base jumps (like a tornado) the new center becomes dominant and we get some outflow boundaries SW of the convection.

Got it, I must have missed the memo of a dying LLC.

[nativefloridian]

Counties issue warnings.

I do not believe that is accurate.
Countries May issue them but not counties or States in the US.
If so, that’s need to me.

I thought NHC gave out the forecast and then it was the county that issued them? Maybe it’s the State then?

Here's some info I obtained from NHC.NOAA,GOV site: ".....To meet its mission, the NHC is composed of several units. The Hurricane Specialist Unit (HSU) maintains a continuous watch on tropical cyclones and areas of disturbed weather within the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins. The HSU prepares and issues analyses and forecasts in the form of text advisories and graphical products. The HSU issues coastal tropical cyclone watches and warnings for the United States and its Caribbean territories and provides watch and warning recommendations to other World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Region IV meteorological services."

Hope that helps answer the question.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[sma10]

The globals have under performed rapid strengthening of virtually all near landfall events this entire season. Should we expect this one to be any different?

[AdamFirst]

The part of Cuba it's going to traverse has some rolling hills that get to about 600 feet. Considering the speed of the system, it likely wouldn't be enough to disrupt the system too much.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[NDG]

Being farther east sooner and stronger with a vertical core structure developing. Models will have to adjust.

some of those earlier runs where Eta Swung out to the central bahamas before turning back west. might be in play now.

So the GFS is running now still shows a S FL hit should it be considered a garbage run not accounting the center relocation to the NE.

All this new data did not make it into the 12z models. will have to wait for 18z.

But the 12z GFS did a nice job in showing the current strengthening.

[TheStormExpert]

The globals have under performed rapid strengthening of virtually all near landfall events this entire season. Should we expect this one to be any different?

No. You can’t rule out minimum hurricane intensity since the max winds are forecasted to be 65mph, but the window seems to have diminished.

[aspen]

Pressure has fallen like a rock with that center reformation. Now down to the low 990s.

[TheStormExpert]

55kts SMFR unflagged. Hurricane warnings may be necessary for the Bahanas, S. Florida and the Keys.

Looking much better than 6 hours ago. If this can consolidate tonight, watch out!

My guess is that it will hit Cuba just as it might be starting to ramp up to near H, and this is why it's not projected to be one. After, I don't know..........from what I've gleaned from historical tracks, Cuba really doesn't seem to do all that much to storms that hit it from the south and cross it reasonably quickly.

Central and Eastern Cuba have mountains which will briefly weaken Eta about 5kts.

[NDG]

You can see how tilted the circulation is due to the SW shear, the radar clearly shows the mid level circulation and LLC separated.

[boca]

The high pressure that will turn Eta to the NW, wouldn’t you think it should start to slow down or will the turn occur up in Central Florida.

[Aric Dunn]

So the GFS is running now still shows a S FL hit should it be considered a garbage run not accounting the center relocation to the NE.

All this new data did not make it into the 12z models. will have to wait for 18z.

But the 12z GFS did a nice job in showing the current strengthening.

Yeah, it is much mor ein line with the other models now. it was a weak outlier until this run.

Models as a whole will likely adjust higher for 18z. and hopefully they fly a g-iv flight to sample the gulf dry air.

because the recon flight yesterday did a drop in the northern gulf and it was way off from what the models were showing for the pool of dry air.

[underthwx]

Pressure has fallen like a rock with that center reformation. Now down to the low 990s.

Does ETA have potential to achieve Category 1 status?....or will the combination of crossing Cuba, and moving into drier air limit it's strengthing?

[Nimbus]

No outflow boundaries. especially not on the SE side.

Those were from the weakening low level center after it "jumped" to the new location.
You can have a system that is tilted the higher you go but once the base jumps (like a tornado) the new center becomes dominant and we get some outflow boundaries SW of the convection.

Got it, I must have missed the memo of a dying LLC.

I'm visualizing this circulation as more tilted than vertical at this time but its got TS strength winds and low pressure at the surface. I'm assumming those 992 mb pressures are at the surface not a sideways extrap?

[Blown Away]

Being farther east sooner and stronger with a vertical core structure developing. Models will have to adjust.

some of those earlier runs where Eta Swung out to the central bahamas before turning back west. might be in play now.

So the GFS is running now still shows a S FL hit should it be considered a garbage run not accounting the center relocation to the NE.

All this new data did not make it into the 12z models. will have to wait for 18z.

Aric, how do you find out that information?

[wxman57]

Eta may be making a run at hurricane intensity this afternoon. Beyond then, though, the dry air should be moving in from the west. Eta's structure will change to more of a subtropical appearance, with tropical storm-force winds extending over 200 miles north of the center as it nears Florida. Such storms are less prone to rapid intensity changes. Could be a hurricane as it passes Florida Monday morning. No school for you, Miami!