ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Evil Jeremy]

Odd choice I think for NHC to issue TS Warnings just for Miami-Dade and Monroe. Those warnings are going to have to be extended North with succeeding advisories. In fact (and I'm not sure how much sense this makes), per the NHC Wind Probabilities product, both WPB (43%) and Fort Lauderdale (51%) have higher odds of experiencing TS winds than Miami (41%). And it's not like there's going to be a significant delay in effects between Miami and Broward/WPB. So I'm struggling to figure out the NHC's logic here.

[AutoPenalti]

That does not make sense Broward not under warning but northern Bahamas are????

This will be updated

Counties issue warnings.

[Blown Away]

Yep, Eta continues to move faster and to the SE of the NHC cone. 10am has Eta all the way to 79.3W before the turn, at 4am it was 80.2W. The curves are flattening out to a more realistic track. Moving NE at 17 mph and NHC still uncertain of true movement, looking at satellite I would favor E side of cone for next few hours. Hurricane warnings may be in SFL’s future, JMHO...

Also for the Storm2k record, IMO the Euro is caving to the GFS...

[Weatherboy1]

SFMR

55 knots
(~ 63.3 mph)


Flight level

60 knots

Like I said earlier ... appeared to be rapidly intensifying - which recon is now confirming
(~ 69.0 mph)

[Nimbus]

The pressure was 1001.9 at the second flight level wind shift.
Isn't the center still tilted to the northeast from the surface low?

[SFLcane]

Odd choice I think for NHC to issue TS Warnings just for Miami-Dade and Monroe. Those warnings are going to have to be extended North with succeeding advisories. In fact (and I'm not sure how much sense this makes), per the NHC Wind Probabilities product, both WPB (43%) and Fort Lauderdale (51%) have higher odds of experiencing TS winds than Miami (41%). And it's not like there's going to be a significant delay in effects between Miami and Broward/WPB. So I'm struggling to figure out the NHC's logic here.

Yep, that left me scratching my head. I have no doubt this will be updated

[SFLcane]

SFMR

55 knots
(~ 63.3 mph)


Flight level

60 knots

Like I said earlier ... appeared to be rapidly intensifying - which recon is now confirming
(~ 69.0 mph)

What!!??!

[Evil Jeremy]

Odd choice I think for NHC to issue TS Warnings just for Miami-Dade and Monroe. Those warnings are going to have to be extended North with succeeding advisories. In fact (and I'm not sure how much sense this makes), per the NHC Wind Probabilities product, both WPB (43%) and Fort Lauderdale (51%) have higher odds of experiencing TS winds than Miami (41%). And it's not like there's going to be a significant delay in effects between Miami and Broward/WPB. So I'm struggling to figure out the NHC's logic here.

Yep, that left me scratching my head. I have no doubt this will be updated

Updated as in within this advisory cycle? We've had those updates before when some of the Caribbean islands update watches/warnings maybe a half hour after an advisory is issued, but I can't recall that happening with the states.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

What the hell? Recon heading north and pressures rose to 1013mb, but then suddenly dropped to 1001mb without a windshift. Doesn't appear to be due to the change in the planes altitude.

[HurricaneFrances04]

I believe John Morales has said before that the wind probabilities are based off the airport location, so MIA is further inland than PBI and FLL.

[SFLcane]

Odd choice I think for NHC to issue TS Warnings just for Miami-Dade and Monroe. Those warnings are going to have to be extended North with succeeding advisories. In fact (and I'm not sure how much sense this makes), per the NHC Wind Probabilities product, both WPB (43%) and Fort Lauderdale (51%) have higher odds of experiencing TS winds than Miami (41%). And it's not like there's going to be a significant delay in effects between Miami and Broward/WPB. So I'm struggling to figure out the NHC's logic here.

Yep, that left me scratching my head. I have no doubt this will be updated

Updated as in within this advisory cycle? We've had those updates before when some of the Caribbean islands update watches/warnings maybe a half hour after an advisory is issued, but I can't recall that happening with the states.

Next advisory I meant.

[Aric Dunn]

Just your typical reorginization of the llc during the life a deepening TS.

it will stabelize shortly.

[boca]

Is it possible since Eta is moving NE at 17mph it might miss South Florida and hit the NW Bahamas than make the turn N and NW further up state across Central Florida?

[Iceresistance]

55 knot FL winds in a 40 mph TS?

This thing is ready to explode

[Nimbus]

What the hell? Recon heading north and pressures rose to 1013mb, but then suddenly dropped to 1001mb without a windshift. Doesn't appear to be due to the change in the planes altitude.

https://i.imgur.com/mcL3LUB.png

There are some outflow boundaries visible moving out from under the Southwest side of the circulation so its still in transformation.

[AutoPenalti]

Is it possible since Eta is moving NE at 17mph it might miss South Florida and hit the NW Bahamas than make the turn N and NW further up state across Central Florida?

It’s expected to slowdown after Cuba.

[aspen]

55 knot FL winds in a 40 mph TS?

This thing is ready to explode

Not really. It’s in the middle of a center reformation and might’ve been underestimated earlier. Even with this, I don’t think it’ll get above 70 kt before landfall in Cuba.

[boca]

Is it possible since Eta is moving NE at 17mph it might miss South Florida and hit the NW Bahamas than make the turn N and NW further up state across Central Florida?

It’s expected to slowdown after Cuba.

Thanks because that was my next question if a slow down were to happen in the Florida straits.

[toad strangler]

We've ALL been fooled before by sat presentation but I can't help to think Eta's structure is recovering in such a way that wasn't expected.

[Evil Jeremy]

Is it possible since Eta is moving NE at 17mph it might miss South Florida and hit the NW Bahamas than make the turn N and NW further up state across Central Florida?

I would think that just means it runs into the high pressure wall to it's North sooner, not that Eta would be substantially further North as it pertains to it's first Florida landfall.