ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

Recon is finding 33 Knots SE to the supposed LLC in the CDO

Yea, they are SE of that first LLC and reporting winds out of the WSW to eventually SW.

[sponger]

She is back!

[Mouton]

Is recon finding sub-circulations?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF309-1029A-ETA_zoom.png

Maybe an old vorticity, pressure is much lower over the Cayman Islands than where the recon is.

In last nights up date, TD mentioned there were perhaps separate areas of vorticity and eventually they would get together. Added it was not unusual in a "mess" like this one as it appeared at that time.

[NDG]

Clearly the Recon missed the true CoC, where it found a slight wind shift pressure were 5 mb higher than what Cayman Islands is reporting.

[Dean4Storms]

Would have to think Recon heads toward that center now WNW of Grand Cayman.

[wxman57]

Clearly the Recon missed the true CoC, where it found a slight wind shift pressure were 5 mb higher than what Cayman Islands is reporting.

Yeah, they passed west of the center. I think NHC will upgrade based on ob at MWCR (Grand Cayman airport).

[Iceresistance]

Recon is getting consistant 40 mph (35 knot) winds right now

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like the recon sampled a dying LLC, you can see there's another LLC in the deep convection.

[Una]

Definitely a TS now, steady winds of 40 mph being reported in Cayman Islands, pressure down to 1000mb

07 Nov 8:37 am 75 75 100 ESE 40 0.62 Hvy Rain FEW014,OVC120 29.52

NHC has not confirmed this, they are currently depending on Recon

There is no need for a confirmation. The international airport on Grand Cayman is reporting TS winds:

MWCR 071337Z 12035KT 1000 +RA FEW014CB OVC120 24/24 Q1000 RMK WIND SP/DIR EST

Did you miss the remark at the end stating that the wind speed and direction are estimated rather than measured?

[SFLcane]

Wow...

[Weatherboy1]

I’ll say it again. This looks to be rapidly organizing. Banding much more impressive by the minute. Central convection much more impressive. If it was in a location away from surface obs, I would guess just by looking at it that it was a high end TS. Guessing that’s what recon will find before too long if these trends continue

[sponger]

Wow...

https://i.imgur.com/aXeGKFq.gif[/url]

Not surprised at all Grand Cayman is seeing 40 mph winds.

[tiger_deF]

Last night Eta looked terrible, I actually can't believe what I'm seeing. Went from a sheared line of convection to this in 8 hours

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Expect a late 10 AM EST advisory. Recon going in for a fix of the new LLC now.

[edu2703]

Eta regains TS strenght

10:00 AM EST Sat Nov 7
Location: 19.6°N 81.8°W
Moving: NE at 17 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

[Iceresistance]

Cayman Islands reporting 30 knots now, middle right of the Recon screen

[SFLcane]

It’s 2020 folks the year of rapidly intensifying storms!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

10:00 AM EST Sat Nov 7
Location: 19.6°N 81.8°W
Moving: NE at 17 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

[NDG]

Expect a late 10 AM EST advisory. Recon going in for a fix of the new LLC now.

I just can't believe they missed the center on the first pass, I guess they didn't communicate to the crew the pressure over the Cayman Islands at the time they were sampling the old LLC.

[HurricaneBelle]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 AM EST Sat Nov 07 2020

...ETA REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS THE CENTER REFORMS TO
THE NORTHEAST...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 81.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WNW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM WSW OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for south Florida from
Golden Beach to Chokoloskee, including Florida Bay, as well as
for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas.

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect along the Florida east
coast north of Sebastien Inlet to the Brevard/Volusia county line.

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida west coast
north of Bonita Beach to Englewood.