ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[boca]

Let me add it will look more organized up by Florida at 65mph. Nothing to look down on, during Irma the winds were only tropical storm strength here in SE Florida.

[boca]

Definitely the strength of Eta as it tracks across S FL will depend how quickly it gets tropical characteristics again once shear drops over it after it passes Cuba. But my bet that tracking over the warm gulf stream it will be a quick strengthening with such low shear environment.

Call me crazy, but I don't like the idea of Eta slowing to a crawl for half of Monday in the vicinity of the Keys...

Good to hear from you.

[Nuno]

We should have TS Eta during overnight hrs.

Very weird that it hasn't been upgraded yet.

People down here don't take TS watches seriously, there's a very blase attitude of "oh its no big deal just rain", so it seems weird that forecasting 65kt gusts being possible that they wouldn't just go with the hurricane watches. They can always upgrade those to TS warnings if it doesn't pan out. Seems like the NHC is down on Eta intensifying much after Cuba.

[SFLcane]

We should have TS Eta during overnight hrs.

Very weird that it hasn't been upgraded yet.

People down here don't take TS watches seriously, there's a very blase attitude of "oh its no big deal just rain", so it seems weird that forecasting 65kt gusts being possible that they wouldn't just go with the hurricane watches. They can always upgrade those to TS warnings if it doesn't pan out. Seems like the NHC is down on Eta intensifying much after Cuba.

Hurricane watches could potentially be isssued tomorrow

[SFLcane]

Let me add it will look more organized up by Florida at 65mph. Nothing to look down on, during Irma the winds were only tropical storm strength here in SE Florida.

How did that work out for you? Have those flash lights ready to go

[boca]

Let me add it will look more organized up by Florida at 65mph. Nothing to look down on, during Irma the winds were only tropical storm strength here in SE Florida.

How did that work out for you? Have those flash lights ready to go

During Irma we never lost power but we lost cable and we had flashlights also those hockey puck lights you can put on the wall. We made out good with Irma.

[gatorcane]

Let me add it will look more organized up by Florida at 65mph. Nothing to look down on, during Irma the winds were only tropical storm strength here in SE Florida.

How did that work out for you? Have those flash lights ready to go

Irma created 90-100mph gusts across some areas of South Florida. That is a big difference from 50mph which generally won’t cause mass power outages.

[boca]

We are ready good on supplies and water and some junk food.

[underthwx]

We should have TS Eta during overnight hrs.

Very weird that it hasn't been upgraded yet.

People down here don't take TS watches seriously, there's a very blase attitude of "oh its no big deal just rain", so it seems weird that forecasting 65kt gusts being possible that they wouldn't just go with the hurricane watches. They can always upgrade those to TS warnings if it doesn't pan out. Seems like the NHC is down on Eta intensifying much after Cuba.

Hurricane watches could potentially be isssued tomorrow

yeah...I believe Wxman57 said in an earlier post...that he expects hurricane watches to be posted...

[TheStormExpert]

https://i.imgur.com/0utqtwl.jpg

We can handle this. I don’t foresee Eta being all that bad for South Florida.

If you consider power outages a prolonged period of winds gusts over 55 mph and 10 inches rain no biggie more power to you.

Sounds a bit over the edge to me. 18z GFS is only forecasting 4-6 inches of rain to fall across South Florida. I’m probably not going to shutter up for this one, unless overnight runs get more bullish.

[TheStormExpert]

Let me add it will look more organized up by Florida at 65mph. Nothing to look down on, during Irma the winds were only tropical storm strength here in SE Florida.

How did that work out for you? Have those flash lights ready to go

Irma created 90-100mph gusts across some areas of South Florida. That is a big difference from 50mph which generally won’t cause mass power outages.

Unless we see hurricane wind gusts then I don’t expect to see too many power outages across South Florida. We get TS wind gusts in a typical afternoon severe thunderstorm.

[Nuno]

Let me add it will look more organized up by Florida at 65mph. Nothing to look down on, during Irma the winds were only tropical storm strength here in SE Florida.

How did that work out for you? Have those flash lights ready to go

Irma created 90-100mph gusts across some areas of South Florida. That is a big difference from 50mph which generally won’t cause mass power outages.

Pretty sure the Keys will likely see 65-70 mph gusts. Not that its catastrophic but it will catch people off guard. Remember Katrina was only 80 mph and it shut down SFL for several days. And I recall so many people surprised somehow how strong "just a cat 1" was.

[TheStormExpert]

Let me add it will look more organized up by Florida at 65mph. Nothing to look down on, during Irma the winds were only tropical storm strength here in SE Florida.

No their were hurricane gusts all throughout South Florida during Irma. We just never saw sustained hurricane winds here in Metropolitan SE Florida.

[underthwx]

I wish all of you in Florida well throughout ETA.... unfortunately, it sounds as if the effects may be slow to clear out for yall, from what I have read on various news and weather agencies...

[toad strangler]

I wish all of you in Florida well throughout ETA.... unfortunately, it sounds as if the effects may be slow to clear out for yall, from what I have read on various news and weather agencies...

THis is what somebody like the StormExpert doesn't understand when he continually states that this will be no worse than what S FL sees in pop up thunderstorms. Those storms don't last for 24 to 48 hours.

[caneseddy]

I wish all of you in Florida well throughout ETA.... unfortunately, it sounds as if the effects may be slow to clear out for yall, from what I have read on various news and weather agencies...

THis is what somebody like the StormExpert doesn't understand when he continually states that this will be no worse than what S FL sees in pop up thunderstorms. Those storms don't last for 24 to 48 hours.

Exactly. Our typical summer thunderstorms last 1-2 hours and move out; this will be a prolonged event of at least 24 hours, especially if what Mets are saying about the windfield expanding and the pressure gradient

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I don't understand why a storm, if it's not a Cat 3+ , is always compared to a "summer thunderstorm" in Florida.

Summer thunderstorms are quick; they're in and out in 30-minutes at most. There's some localized street flooding at most and some branches down from a 60-mph wind gust. That's it.

Tropical storms are prolonged, with tons of rain that can bring much more flooding and significant damage.

They are not the same.

[underthwx]

I wish all of you in Florida well throughout ETA.... unfortunately, it sounds as if the effects may be slow to clear out for yall, from what I have read on various news and weather agencies...

THis is what somebody like the StormExpert doesn't understand when he continually states that this will be no worse than what S FL sees in pop up thunderstorms. Those storms don't last for 24 to 48 hours.

Exactly. Our typical summer thunderstorms last 1-2 hours and move out; this will be a prolonged event of at least 24 hours, especially if what Mets are saying about the windfield expanding and the pressure gradient

Nothing personal my friends...just wishing everyone well...I hope it will be a quick event... minimal effects...yall have a good weekend

[Jr0d]

I don't understand why a storm, if it's not a Cat 3+ , is always compared to a "summer thunderstorm" in Florida.

Summer thunderstorms are quick; they're in and out in 30-minutes at most. There's some localized street flooding at most and some branches down from a 60-mph wind gust. That's it.

Tropical storms are prolonged, with tons of rain that can bring much more flooding and significant damage.

They are not the same.

Plus the tornadoes that these hybrid systems often put out. Even if the winds are only in the 40kt range across South Florida, a tornado outbreak will be possible with Eta.

[Evil Jeremy]

This is going to be a relatively untraditional tropical experience for SFL. Prolonged, sustained, wacky approach and departure, and a sub-tropical structure.

Not an afternoon thunderstorm. I filled up the gas tank on the way home from work. Otherwise I’ve been stocked up on the essentials all season. Thought FL would get away with it this year after being in I think 3 cones prior to Eta without impacts. But 2020.