ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

The large area of convection is starting to swirl & getting better organized, maybe center reformation? Note the northern spiral banding.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/data/AL292020/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-AL292020-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif


(The models are saying something that could form South of the Azores within the next 5 days, we may need to keep an eye on this next system)

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png

There's another thread for that

[Sanibel]

Showing curvature...Should be poorly organized for the synoptic reasons explained in Tropical Tidbits...

[Iceresistance]

The large area of convection is starting to swirl & getting better organized, maybe center reformation? Note the northern spiral banding.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/data/AL292020/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-AL292020-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif


(The models are saying something that could form South of the Azores within the next 5 days, we may need to keep an eye on this next system)

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png

There's another thread for that

I never noticed that until just now. I don't think that will develop, but Eta may have a center reformation based on the amount of convection in a certain area. (whink? )

[robbielyn]

Levi’s video is out. tropicaltidbits.com synopsis dry air will wrap in the inner core and be a hybrid, cross cuba before hitting florida could build thunderstorms again in the inner core producing up to 80mph hurricane or if dry air disrupts the core again, it will remain hybrid and produce 60mph.

[NDG]

Definitely the strength of Eta as it tracks across S FL will depend how quickly it gets tropical characteristics again once shear drops over it after it passes Cuba. But my bet that tracking over the warm gulf stream it will be a quick strengthening with such low shear environment.

[ElectricStorm]

The large area of convection is starting to swirl & getting better organized, maybe center reformation? Note the northern spiral banding.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/data/AL292020/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-AL292020-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif


(The models are saying something that could form South of the Azores within the next 5 days, we may need to keep an eye on this next system)

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png

There's another thread for that

I never noticed that until just now. I don't think that will develop, but Eta may have a center reformation based on the amount of convection in a certain area. (whink? )

Huh? How are those two related lol

[Iceresistance]

There's another thread for that

I never noticed that until just now. I don't think that will develop, but Eta may have a center reformation based on the amount of convection in a certain area. (whink? )

Huh? How are those two related lol

I was saying that the area on intreast is the one I don't think will develop, but since Eta has a crazy amount of convection, Eta may have a center reformation.

[Iceresistance]

Definitely the strength of Eta as it tracks across S FL will depend how quickly it gets tropical characteristics again once shear drops over it after it passes Cuba. But my bet that tracking over the warm gulf stream it will be a quick strengthening with such low shear environment.

https://i.imgur.com/3GblXLw.png

Only if Eta does not curve west towards Louisiana

[underthwx]

This season is turning into the 20/21 season...

[Blown Away]

Definitely the strength of Eta as it tracks across S FL will depend how quickly it gets tropical characteristics again once shear drops over it after it passes Cuba. But my bet that tracking over the warm gulf stream it will be a quick strengthening with such low shear environment.

https://i.imgur.com/3GblXLw.png

GFS/HWRF/HMON pretty consistent on a 980’s mb hurricane into SFL but likely b/c they go past the peninsula @79W before the turn and have @24 hours over water moving NW before hitting peninsula. NHC doesn’t seem to buy into that idea.

[ElectricStorm]

This season is turning into the 20/21 season...

After all 2021 really is just 2020...+1

[underthwx]

I read part of the NWS Tampa forecast discussion earlier...it mentioned that ETA may be lingering in the Florida region through next week....that's quite a bit of time ...what are some of the precipitation forecasts looking like?...

[ObsessedMiami]

NWS Miami has dropped “tropical storm conditions possible” from the Miami point forecast for Sunday and Monday, where they had them this afternoon

[lhpfish]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.local1 ... utType=amp

Miami mayor declares state of emergency

[Blown Away]

Eta must hit 18.2W/84.8 by midnight to reach the first NHC forecast point from the 3pm advisory.

6pm position was 17.7N/85.8W, based on latest satellite, Eta is going to pass that NHC point early and a bit S.

These marks early will be important b/c NHC still not real certain of current movement.

[gatorcane]

Pretty strong 850mb vort

[robbielyn]

I read part of the NWS Tampa forecast discussion earlier...it mentioned that ETA may be lingering in the Florida region through next week....that's quite a bit of time ...what are some of the precipitation forecasts looking like?...

not much rain 30% chance of rain. didn’t say inches but generally 1-2 inches. i checked out hernando county and tampa news typed in zip code to get local 7day forecast. winds gusting to 30mph for both areas.

[robbielyn]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.local10.com/weather/2020/11/07/gimenez-declares-state-of-emergency-as-eta-approaches-south-florida/%3foutputType=amp

Miami mayor declares state of emergency

people in mobile homes and low lying areas hv to evacuate

[WeatherHoon]

NWS Miami has dropped “tropical storm conditions possible” from the Miami point forecast for Sunday and Monday, where they had them this afternoon

This is strange, especially when a non-direct hit to Miami to the south would still bring about TS conditions

[lhpfish]

Looks like it’s coming together on IR