ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jr0d]

Typically Cat.1 hurricanes have a minimum central pressure of at least 989mb. What the 12z Euro likely shows is a mid-strong TS.

992 with low resolution is close enough to go with a hurricane...when Eta was sub 930 it was showing pressures 30mb+ higher so I think we can say 992mb at that resolution indicates a hurricane, especially with the pressure gradient shown.

The NHC discussion was very interesting. The expect Eta to merge with the frontal low and become a hybrid system....which also makes it very unlikely to be a hurricane when that happens. Unfortunately it also means a much larger windfield.

I still think there is a possibility of Eta becoming a hurricane near Cuba and the Keys, before it goes fully hybrid, however the shear forecast is also making this less likely.

[AutoPenalti]

Wow, a full recon mission was finally accomplished.

[Nimbus]

NHC has Eta at 17.3N vs Recon's 17.1

I guess it doesn't really make much of a difference.

Mission #7 found several wind flips and some pressure drops down near 1000 mb's in the monsoon.
This one from mission #8 might be the primary center time will tell 48 hours from now it doesn't make much difference.

[wxman57]

It's behaving pretty much as I expected. Was forecasting it to become a TS again tomorrow. I did adjust the track to touching the southern tip of the FL Peninsula around 4am Monday. Could have a large area of TS winds to its north due to strong high pressure to the north. Not sure there will be much left of it for final landfall in northern Florida Thursday night or Friday morning.

[SFLcane]

How so? What is your thinking on this?

Well, if he mentioned it I don't think he'd be joking about, which is why I said "may".

I can assure you that he was joking about that second center north of western Cuba.

SFL update? Are you still expecting hurricane watches?

[AutoPenalti]

HWRF 12z had this right pressure-wise, just a bit farther North.

[boca]

When do you think we will get tropical storm watches or warnings South Florida?

[xironman]

I'm surprised NHC kept Eta a TD at 4 PM. Based on both planes finding 35 knot SFMR+ and the AF plane now recording an area of tropical storm forced winds at it's very low altitude, I'd think that'd be enough data for an upgrade, I guess the NHC wants to see more.

42kt from the NOAA plane.

[TheProfessor]

I'm surprised NHC kept Eta a TD at 4 PM. Based on both planes finding 35 knot SFMR+ and the AF plane now recording an area of tropical storm forced winds at it's very low altitude, I'd think that'd be enough data for an upgrade, I guess the NHC wants to see more.

42kt from the NOAA plane.

The NOAA plane has sample a few areas with 35kt SFMR readings that didn't have high rain rates. They're also flying at 500mb so FL winds will be low.

[xironman]

I'm surprised NHC kept Eta a TD at 4 PM. Based on both planes finding 35 knot SFMR+ and the AF plane now recording an area of tropical storm forced winds at it's very low altitude, I'd think that'd be enough data for an upgrade, I guess the NHC wants to see more.

42kt from the NOAA plane.

The NOAA plane has sample a few areas with 35kt SFMR readings that didn't have high rain rates. They're also flying at 500mb so FL winds will be low.

I was going with this one. Noting that SFMR can be dodgy

Time: 21:26:30Z
Coordinates: 18.350N 85.633W
Acft. Static Air Press: 606.0 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 4,308 m (14,134 ft)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1003.3 mb (29.63 inHg)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 231° at 26 kts (From the SW at 29.9 mph)
Air Temp: 3.4°C (38.1°F)
Dew Pt: 2.1°C (35.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 27 kts (31.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 42 kts (48.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 2 mm/hr (0.08 in/hr)

[hurricanehunter69]

last visible of the day. Gonna be interesting to see what it looks like in the morning? A massive amount of deep convection and energy to work with here. Impressive. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=r ... =undefined

[TheStormExpert]

Starting to wrap up on TPW.

[wzrgirl1]

Going into the weekend, as a Miami teacher, I just want to know if school will be cancelled on Monday! LOL

You and my daughter. She’s a teacher in Polk County.

I am a teacher in Miami as well. Fingers crossed that school is cancelled.

[Evil Jeremy]

When do you think we will get tropical storm watches or warnings South Florida?

3. There is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and flash and
urban flooding due to heavy rainfall in portions of southern
Florida, the Florida Keys, and portions of the Bahamas this weekend
and early next week. Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches will likely
be issued for a portion of this area tonight.

Watches likely tonight. It would have been at 5pm if the forecast timeline didn't slow down by about 12 hours.

[Canelaw99]

Fellow Miami teacher crossing fingers too!

Going into the weekend, as a Miami teacher, I just want to know if school will be cancelled on Monday! LOL

You and my daughter. She’s a teacher in Polk County.

I am a teacher in Miami as well. Fingers crossed that school is cancelled.

[wxman57]

Well, if he mentioned it I don't think he'd be joking about, which is why I said "may".

I can assure you that he was joking about that second center north of western Cuba.

SFL update? Are you still expecting hurricane watches?

NHC is forecasting 65 mph winds as it passes through the Keys. Since intensity forecast error could easily be 15-20 mph, a hurricane watch is warranted tomorrow.

[underthwx]

Looks like ETA is getting better organized....again....all yall in Florida be prepared my friends....can anyone tell me when ETA was first designated a depression?....it's been so long now, I can't remember...

5 pm on Halloween.

I had to double check the time but the date was easy to remember.

Lol....Thanks!...

[Iceresistance]

The large area of convection is starting to swirl & getting better organized, maybe center reformation? Note the northern spiral banding.




(The models are saying something that could form South of the Azores within the next 5 days, we may need to keep an eye on this next system)

[underthwx]

I can assure you that he was joking about that second center north of western Cuba.

SFL update? Are you still expecting hurricane watches?

NHC is forecasting 65 mph winds as it passes through the Keys. Since intensity forecast error could easily be 15-20 mph, a hurricane watch is warranted tomorrow.

Wxman57...if I may ask you...the NHC cone extends towards the SE GOM....do you anticipate ETA to cross the northern parts of Florida, later in the forecast period?...

[SFLcane]

I can assure you that he was joking about that second center north of western Cuba.

SFL update? Are you still expecting hurricane watches?

NHC is forecasting 65 mph winds as it passes through the Keys. Since intensity forecast error could easily be 15-20 mph, a hurricane watch is warranted tomorrow.

Thanks!