ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Recon just found a fairly well defined center around 17.2N, 87W

Full degree south of the NHC position.

[Jr0d]

It is easy to say that Eta will not become a hurricane based on how it looks now, however all the models were it good agreement that it would still.be a broad low at this point and not start to consolidate until tomorrow morning. Right now its on track for that.

Right now I would give it about a 20% chance of becoming a hurricane, will up it to 50%+ if the pressure falls below 1000mb tonight.

I do expect TS watches for the Keys and S. Florida at the next advisories and doubt the NHC will issue hurricane watches today, maybe tomorrow if it consolidates as forecast and the starts to drop.

The fact the generally bearish EURO is showing a hurricane is something we should not ignore.

12z Euro does not show a Hurricane. In fact 12z GEFS has trended downwards in intensity along with 18z Intensity guidance.

The EURO is showing 992mb with low resolution. I consider that close enough to call a hurricane.

Looking at the big picture, I think there is a good chance Eta consolidate tomorrow.

[Emmett_Brown]

Recon just found a fairly well defined center around 17.2N, 87W

Full degree south of the NHC position.

Yeah, so models will likely shift a little, but not sure how this might affect them

[TheStormExpert]

It is easy to say that Eta will not become a hurricane based on how it looks now, however all the models were it good agreement that it would still.be a broad low at this point and not start to consolidate until tomorrow morning. Right now its on track for that.

Right now I would give it about a 20% chance of becoming a hurricane, will up it to 50%+ if the pressure falls below 1000mb tonight.

I do expect TS watches for the Keys and S. Florida at the next advisories and doubt the NHC will issue hurricane watches today, maybe tomorrow if it consolidates as forecast and the starts to drop.

The fact the generally bearish EURO is showing a hurricane is something we should not ignore.

12z Euro does not show a Hurricane. In fact 12z GEFS has trended downwards in intensity along with 18z Intensity guidance.

The EURO is showing 992mb with low resolution. I consider that close enough to call a hurricane.

Looking at the big picture, I think there is a good chance Eta consolidate tomorrow.

Typically Cat.1 hurricanes have a minimum central pressure of at least 989mb. What the 12z Euro likely shows is a mid-strong TS.

[wxman57]

May not be quite organized enough to be classified as a true depression. Plane found a couple of 35 kt winds in squalls, but FL winds not much more than 30-31kts. Seems to be an elliptical circulation.

Yeah, this was never a depression but out of respect to CA, and for classification reasons I'm guessing, it was essentially a TD through Central America.

The NHC had this forecasted as a remnant low at this time several days ago, don't know why they changed or never downgraded.

Technically, it was a remnant low over Honduras. But if the NHC called it "Post-Tropical/Remnant Low", then it may cause some in its path to take it less seriously, plus it could be confusing to the public. Easier for everyone just to call it a TD, as it made no difference as far as the rainfall.

P.S. Second recon found another center north of western Cuba. I think it's finding enhanced NE surface winds along the east coast of the Yucatan associated with the front, as FL winds are much lower.

[AutoPenalti]

That second center may throw a wrench into things...

[boca]

I think he was joking about the second center,but how does the center being a degree south affect the models?

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

That second center may throw a wrench into things...

He's not being serious, recon is finding winds in different directions due to switching altitudes at various points. Seems like their SFMR is calibrated for a different altitude than the one they're currently at anyway.

[Loveweather12]

That second center may throw a wrench into things...

How so? What is your thinking on this?

[chaser1]

May not be quite organized enough to be classified as a true depression. Plane found a couple of 35 kt winds in squalls, but FL winds not much more than 30-31kts. Seems to be an elliptical circulation.

You're certainly right about that. I suppose I can understand NHC keeping that TD designation given ease of public reference but it really does go to the point that "if" or when a T.S forms, that this should realistically be named Theta. That's a discussion that's already been hashed out in another thread I think.

[AutoPenalti]

That second center may throw a wrench into things...

How so? What is your thinking on this?

Well, if he mentioned it I don't think he'd be joking about, which is why I said "may".

[wxman57]

That second center may throw a wrench into things...

How so? What is your thinking on this?

Well, if he mentioned it I don't think he'd be joking about, which is why I said "may".

I can assure you that he was joking about that second center north of western Cuba.

[ClarCari]

May not be quite organized enough to be classified as a true depression. Plane found a couple of 35 kt winds in squalls, but FL winds not much more than 30-31kts. Seems to be an elliptical circulation.

You're certainly right about that. I suppose I can understand NHC keeping that TD designation given ease of public reference but it really does go to the point that "if" or when a T.S forms, that this should realistically be named Theta. That's a discussion that's already been hashed out in another thread I think.

What other thread?
Anyways if the remnants are clearly associated with the convection of a previous system in the same basin, then it will keep the same name even without a low. Harvey basically had only convection left until the Yucatan.
Only crossing basin’s with no low, will rename the system. This convection is very clearly associated with Eta, so a new name is unwarranted even if there wasn’t a low left.

I’m curious if NHC ever downgrades TD to post-tropical at times?

Thankfully for tracking purposes recon finally found one!

[stormchazer]

Going into the weekend, as a Miami teacher, I just want to know if school will be cancelled on Monday! LOL

You and my daughter. She’s a teacher in Polk County.

[AutoPenalti]

How so? What is your thinking on this?

Well, if he mentioned it I don't think he'd be joking about, which is why I said "may".

I can assure you that he was joking about that second center north of western Cuba.

Nevermind then.

[GCANE]

Very heavy rain rate reported by recon, ~45 mm/hr.
Strong latent heating very capable of further intensification.

[bob rulz]

Oh so NOW recon works properly.

[chaser1]

I think he was joking about the second center,but how does the center being a degree south affect the models?

Timing gets thrown off. Could have ramifications affecting when and where it begins to deepen. Not already moving northeast could suggest a greater chance of dry air getting entrained before becoming well developed. A 12 hr. or more delay could impact whether the system ever gets quite as far north or east near southeast Florida, before interacting with the progged mid to upper low in the southeast GOM. I suppose there's other scenario's where a delayed motion could result in a stronger storm too if it remained south of Cuba long enough for any GOM mid level low to move up and out.

[AutoPenalti]

NHC has Eta at 17.3N vs Recon's 17.1

I guess it doesn't really make much of a difference.

[TheProfessor]

I'm surprised NHC kept Eta a TD at 4 PM. Based on both planes finding 35 knot SFMR+ and the AF plane now recording an area of tropical storm forced winds at it's very low altitude, I'd think that'd be enough data for an upgrade, I guess the NHC wants to see more.