ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[xironman]

The vort recon found down near Roatan looks pretty good.

[Iceresistance]

The vort recon found down near Roatan looks pretty good.

Recon is also very low at only 131 gpm

[AutoPenalti]

The vort recon found down near Roatan looks pretty good.

Recon is also very low at only 131 gpm

GPM? That’s not Gallons per minute right lol

That’s the Global Precipitation Measurement?

[psyclone]

This really looks like a long, protracted fall gale with lots of rain for florida...weighted south and east. Big rains and beach eating tides and wave run up/coastal overwash looks like a lock at this point with the gradient north of the system. I'd be surprised if we get actual hurricane conditions in Florida...but it is a possibility. Securing a watch is far easier than getting those conditions (thank goodness). this is going to be a marathon system and it looks to provide days of stormy weather...especially for the the keys, south florida and east central florida...

[Blown Away]

The vort recon found down near Roatan looks pretty good.

Rotan is way far SE from the NHC position.

Has recon confirmed Eta's position?

[TheStormExpert]

This really looks like a long, protracted fall gale with lots of rain for florida...weighted south and east. Big rains and beach eating tides and wave run up/coastal overwash looks like a lock at this point with the gradient north of the system. I'd be surprised if we get actual hurricane conditions in Florida...but it is a possibility. Securing a watch is far easier than getting those conditions (thank goodness). this is going to be a marathon system and it looks to provide days of stormy weather...especially for the the keys, south florida and east central florida...

Yeah the structure of Eta should prevent it from becoming a hurricane again in my opinion. Will just be a very bad coastal storm for the East Coast of Florida.

[chaser1]

This really looks like a long, protracted fall gale with lots of rain for florida...weighted south and east. Big rains and beach eating tides and wave run up/coastal overwash looks like a lock at this point with the gradient north of the system. I'd be surprised if we get actual hurricane conditions in Florida...but it is a possibility. Securing a watch is far easier than getting those conditions (thank goodness). this is going to be a marathon system and it looks to provide days of stormy weather...especially for the the keys, south florida and east central florida...

That really sums it up, at least for the time being

[TheStormExpert]

Still a disorganized mess.

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1324799391773982721

[Blown Away]

Lowest pressure SE @17.6N/85.8W

[Blown Away]

Recon heading back SW... The red circle was the NHC 12:00 position.

[wxman57]

May not be quite organized enough to be classified as a true depression. Plane found a couple of 35 kt winds in squalls, but FL winds not much more than 30-31kts. Seems to be an elliptical circulation.

[AutoPenalti]

May not be quite organized enough to be classified as a true depression. Plane found a couple of 35 kt winds in squalls, but FL winds not much more than 30-31kts. Seems to be an elliptical circulation.

Yeah, this was never a depression but out of respect to CA, and for classification reasons I'm guessing, it was essentially a TD through Central America.

[SouthFLTropics]

I've been eyeballing the area around Roatan since this morning. With so much convection spread across the Caribbean, this could set up shop almost anywhere it seems.

[TheStormExpert]

May not be quite organized enough to be classified as a true depression. Plane found a couple of 35 kt winds in squalls, but FL winds not much more than 30-31kts. Seems to be an elliptical circulation.

Yeah, this was never a depression but out of respect to CA, and for classification reasons I'm guessing, it was essentially a TD through Central America.

The NHC had this forecasted as a remnant low at this time several days ago, don't know why they changed or never downgraded.

[Jr0d]

It is easy to say that Eta will not become a hurricane based on how it looks now, however all the models were it good agreement that it would still.be a broad low at this point and not start to consolidate until tomorrow morning. Right now its on track for that.

Right now I would give it about a 20% chance of becoming a hurricane, will up it to 50%+ if the pressure falls below 1000mb tonight.

I do expect TS watches for the Keys and S. Florida at the next advisories and doubt the NHC will issue hurricane watches today, maybe tomorrow if it consolidates as forecast and the starts to drop.

The fact the generally bearish EURO is showing a hurricane is something we should not ignore.

[TheStormExpert]

It is easy to say that Eta will not become a hurricane based on how it looks now, however all the models were it good agreement that it would still.be a broad low at this point and not start to consolidate until tomorrow morning. Right now its on track for that.

Right now I would give it about a 20% chance of becoming a hurricane, will up it to 50%+ if the pressure falls below 1000mb tonight.

I do expect TS watches for the Keys and S. Florida at the next advisories and doubt the NHC will issue hurricane watches today, maybe tomorrow if it consolidates as forecast and the starts to drop.

The fact the generally bearish EURO is showing a hurricane is something we should not ignore.

12z Euro does not show a Hurricane. In fact 12z GEFS has trended downwards in intensity along with 18z Intensity guidance.

[Evil Jeremy]

The NHC had this forecasted as a remnant low at this time several days ago, don't know why they changed or never downgraded.

Because downgrading to a remnant low and discontinuing advisories would disrupt the messaging as it pertains to possible threats to Florida. Keeping this a TD was a PR move.

[SFLcane]

May not be quite organized enough to be classified as a true depression. Plane found a couple of 35 kt winds in squalls, but FL winds not much more than 30-31kts. Seems to be an elliptical circulation.

You sure about those hurricane watches and warnings? Did u see the 18z guidance? Not sure that will come

[AutoPenalti]

Recon found the lowest pressure at 1000mb. Center at 17.1N 87.0W

[Emmett_Brown]

Recon just found a fairly well defined center around 17.2N, 87W