ATL: SALLY - Models

[Steve]

GFS looks to still take longer to organize (as per Levi's video) and is therefore not super strongly depicted at 42 hours. I guess that's what we'll have to figure out. What does it look like Monday am?

[Hammy]

GFS looks to still take longer to organize (as per Levi's video) and is therefore not super strongly depicted at 42 hours. I guess that's what we'll have to figure out. What does it look like Monday am?

A lot of the mesoscale models seem to keep the upper high a bit displaced to the west for a few days which seems like the primary reason behind the slow organization. NAM is a good trend tool (especially within the 24 hour mark) and still has a sheared mid-range tropical storm by this time tomorrow.

[toad strangler]

GFS looks to still take longer to organize (as per Levi's video) and is therefore not super strongly depicted at 42 hours. I guess that's what we'll have to figure out. What does it look like Monday am?

A lot of the mesoscale models seem to keep the upper high a bit displaced to the west for a few days which seems like the primary reason behind the slow organization. NAM is a good trend tool (especially within the 24 hour mark) and still has a sheared mid-range tropical storm by this time tomorrow.

Agree on the UNDER 24 hour mark with the NAM as the tropics are not what this model was created for. Under 24 hours though the NAM many times sniffs out subtle things that mean alot.

[MidnightRain]

GFS and HWRF appear west of NHC’s track, this could prompt a shift tomorrow in the cone.

[Steve]

GFS jumps on TT, but it looks to come in a bit west of the 18z run.

[Steve]

Canadian looks to landall around Harrison County and may be right or may be slightly an eastern outlier.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1300&fh=60

[NDG]

0z GFS shifted to the west, not good for Nola.

[SoupBone]

0z GFS shifted to the west, not good for Nola.


https://i.imgur.com/5bCcWkn.gif

Especially if the GFS underestimates the intensity.

[FixySLN]

Looks like everything else is shifting east or holding the line.

[Uptownmeow]

Looks like everything else is shifting east or holding the line.

What do you mean by everything else ? any details ?

[Steve]

Looks like everything else is shifting east or holding the line.

What do you mean by everything else ? any details ?

Only thing I saw was the CMC but it was already east. GFS was west. ICON was west. HMON was a FL hit so you expect that to move farther west. COAMPS to 18z went from Franklin County to NWFL so it shifted west as well. NHC track is pretty close to what it has been.

[JayTX]

Wow, what a flooding event that would be.

If the 18z Euro was to be correct.

https://i.imgur.com/KuhGQ9f.png

For Harvey, the modeling was too conservative and still showing 30" in some areas. I really hope the Euro doesn't end up verifying.

From what I remember no model showed anything close to what Harvey dropped in SETX. We had 45" to 50" next door to me. The models never came close to that. Rainfall is a hard thing to predict.

[NDG]

0z GFS shifted to the west, not good for Nola.


https://i.imgur.com/5bCcWkn.gif

Especially if the GFS underestimates the intensity.

Something to keep in mind is that the latest GFS is a little faster than previous runs on its approach to the north central gulf coast, by around noon on Monday is already approaching the mouth of the MS river so weather will be going down hill across SE LA and MS gulf coast early Monday afternoon if not a little earlier.
It shows making landfall in southern Lafourche Parish at 2 AM Tuesday morning. We are close to 48 hrs of the potential landfall if the GFS is correct.

[Steve]

HMON to 42 hours looks to be getting with the program a little more. We'll see how much farther it landfalls than Santa Rosa County. So that'd be another western model.

[Steve]

HMON 00z @ 72 hours


In the 18z run it only got as far west as south of Baldwin County before hooking NE and hitting Florida. It still might hook, but it's the HMON.

HWRF needs to hurry up.

[Steve]

HWRF out to 30 hours.



Note that the HWRF remains quicker with overall organization so when it probably kicks in in the day 2 range, it's already got a head start. We don't know if it's right, but we'll see where the run goes.

[PTPatrick]

HWRF out to 30 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/yR50TZD.png

Note that the HWRF remains quicker with overall organization so when it probably kicks in in the day 2 range, it's already got a head start. We don't know if it's right, but we'll see where the run goes.

Notable that Hwrf is a good 75 miles northeast of hmon at same time, 30 hrs. Seems like all the models kinda struggle with the 36-54 period with the drifting. The hmon coming to a halt then drifting into Mississippi is interesting...it takes nearly all day Tuesday to get from the mouth of the ms to Pascagoula/Grand bay

[Steve]

HMON is looking to hit the MS/AL border (Pascagoula, Moss Point, Grand Bay, Bayou Labatre and those areas.

[Steve]

HWRF out to 30 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/yR50TZD.png

Note that the HWRF remains quicker with overall organization so when it probably kicks in in the day 2 range, it's already got a head start. We don't know if it's right, but we'll see where the run goes.

Notable that Hwrf is a good 75 miles northeast of hmon at same time, 30 hrs. Seems like all the models kinda struggle with the 36-54 period with the drifting. The hmon coming to a halt then drifting into Mississippi is interesting...

Yeah. But HMON is pretty often the butt of jokes. I'm not saying I have a problem with where it landfalls. It just usually takes it a while to match up. HWRF looks deliberate, but I don't think it's going to end up as strong. I don't know though, because it's still got to slow it down where it's at on Levi's site.

[PTPatrick]

HMON is looking to hit the MS/AL border (Pascagoula, Moss Point, Grand Bay, Bayou Labatre and those areas.

https://i.imgur.com/8N4yVhh.png

Haha...won’t show this one to mom.,..she is right on the bayou there under the 9...between grand bay and Pascagoula.