ATL: PAULETTE - Remnants - Discussion

[msbee]

I just heard the meteorologist on the NYC ABC station @amyfreeze7 call Paulette a fish storm. How can Paulette be a fish storm if it’s threatening Bermuda?

Hi Barbara. Is a big error on his part saying that with Bermuda going to be affected.

Yes I think so too. These statements by local Mets are sometimes so inaccurate.

[Do_For_Love]

Paulette looks like she is struggling a bit on radar but starting to get it together. Should strengthen significantly over the next two days, hopefully everyone in Bermuda is prepared. Interestingly, it's supposed to peak *north* of Bermuda per the NHC close to a Cat 3.

[Kazmit]

Looking like a classic sloppy cat 1 this morning.

[gfsperpendicular]

Major is explicitly forecast:

INIT 13/1500Z 29.9N 61.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 30.9N 63.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 32.8N 64.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 35.0N 63.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 37.0N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 39.1N 55.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 41.4N 49.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 43.9N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 44.0N 36.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I just heard the meteorologist on the NYC ABC station @amyfreeze7 call Paulette a fish storm. How can Paulette be a fish storm if it’s threatening Bermuda?

Hi Barbara. Is a big error on his part saying that with Bermuda going to be affected.

Yes I think so too. These statements by local Mets are sometimes so inaccurate.

I've seen TV mets call systems "fish storms" even if they're impacting the Lesser Antilles.

[StPeteMike]

Last hour or so it looks like it has really improved. Pretty clear eye depicted on satellite.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Much better organized.

[toad strangler]

Paulette feels like she has been around since April.

[msbee]

Hi Barbara. Is a big error on his part saying that with Bermuda going to be affected.

Yes I think so too. These statements by local Mets are sometimes so inaccurate.

I've seen TV mets call systems "fish storms" even if they're impacting the Lesser Antilles.

I know.

[plasticup]

Major is explicitly forecast:

INIT 13/1500Z 29.9N 61.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 30.9N 63.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 32.8N 64.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 35.0N 63.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 37.0N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 39.1N 55.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 41.4N 49.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 43.9N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 44.0N 36.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Will be well clear of Bermuda by then, thankfully

[plasticup]

I just heard the meteorologist on the NYC ABC station @amyfreeze7 call Paulette a fish storm. How can Paulette be a fish storm if it’s threatening Bermuda?

We get that all the time.

[plasticup]

Much better organized.

https://i.imgur.com/z1EU6Nk.jpg

Wow, yeah! Right on schedule

[us89]

Major is explicitly forecast:

INIT 13/1500Z 29.9N 61.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 30.9N 63.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 32.8N 64.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 35.0N 63.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 37.0N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 39.1N 55.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 41.4N 49.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 43.9N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 44.0N 36.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Will be well clear of Bermuda by then, thankfully

Unfortunately that means the recent trend of storms intensifying right up into landfall is not going to stop here.

Which is sort of anomalous climatologically - seems like most Bermuda hits are from weakening storms.

[aspen]

Recon is in but did not find a pressure drop from last time.

[plasticup]

Recon is in but did not find a pressure drop from last time.

Surprising because it looks much better on satellite

[plasticup]

Coming into radar range. Eye clearly visible.

[Kazmit]

This is always a good webcam to watch:

https://www.portbermudawebcam.com/

[toad strangler]

I just heard the meteorologist on the NYC ABC station @amyfreeze7 call Paulette a fish storm. How can Paulette be a fish storm if it’s threatening Bermuda?

We get that all the time.

I try and catch myself from looking past that little speck out there in the Atlantic! Once in awhile I mess up and forget about y'all. It's just a stupid human nature thing. It's a numbers thing too. The population of just the COUNTY I live in has 5 times the population of Bermuda. I'll keep trying to do better though. I'm getting there, as I never overlook the GA's or the LA's anymore

[chaser1]

This is always a good webcam to watch:

https://www.portbermudawebcam.com/

Nice link! Question is, how long will it hold up

[aspen]

I think the lack of a pressure fall is due to the dry air the NHC noted Paulette was mixing out in its 11am advisory. Convection is becoming deeper and starting to obscure the eye, so it seems that dry air is no longer a problem and Paulette is trying to build a better core.