ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[Aric Dunn]

Given the current organizational trends with Christobal and what will likely be a quick jump up in intensity over the next 12 hours possibly to hurricane strength assuming it stays over water...

expect all the models to start changing. especially those that disipate over land a reform farther NE.. I.e GFS , UKMET etc.

How would this affect the track if it develops quickly like it is right now?

North sooner.

[bella_may]

https://twitter.com/nwsneworleans/statu ... 63008?s=21

[aspen]

12z Euro takes Cristobal into Mexico as part of its loop. The rest of the model hasn’t loaded yet.

[Aric Dunn]

well the 12z euro goes way too far west in the next 24 hours.. the motion is not what is happening now. so we can sit and wait for then run now. lol

[SoupBone]

Euro at 120

[Ivanhater]

12z euro is much more aggressive than yesterday. This could reach hurricane status

[gatorcane]

Euro 120 hours:

[bella_may]

well the 12z euro goes way too far west in the next 24 hours.. the motion is not what is happening now. so we can sit and wait for then run now. lol

Yeah once it moves away from land I’m guessing the models will consolidate much more

[SoupBone]

Euro 144

[davidiowx]

Euro right into central LA coast at hour 144

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro much further east

[Wx_Warrior]

12z EURO central louisiana, 996mb (144h)

[Aric Dunn]

:P

well the 12z euro goes way too far west in the next 24 hours.. the motion is not what is happening now. so we can sit and wait for then run now. lol

Yeah once it moves away from land I’m guessing the models will consolidate much more

Yeah right now models are not really to helpful except for the general background environment and steering.

this 12z Euro still takes it inland for awhile disrupts the circ and turns it into a more broad circ. tighter than some runs but still less organized core.

[bella_may]

12z Euro much further east

Wasn’t the other models further east as well?

[Stormcenter]

We are starting to see more and more of
model consensus with where the storm ultimately
makes landfall somewhere around SW/C LA. coastline
IMO.

[davidiowx]

We are starting to see more and more of
model consensus with where the storm ultimately
makes landfall somewhere around SW/C LA. coastline
IMO.

That is looking that way for today.. Tomorrow may be a different story. I think the storm needs to get away from the coastline for models to get a better grip no things. Currently it looks like it may make landfall in Mexico fairly quickly if it doesn't wobble away.

[SoupBone]

:P

well the 12z euro goes way too far west in the next 24 hours.. the motion is not what is happening now. so we can sit and wait for then run now. lol

Yeah once it moves away from land I’m guessing the models will consolidate much more

Yeah right now models are not really to helpful except for the general background environment and steering.

this 12z Euro still takes it inland for awhile disrupts the circ and turns it into a more broad circ. tighter than some runs but still less organized core.

This does make the Euro agree a bit more with the GFS, who has been going slightly more east on each run.

[stormlover2013]

Word to the wise don’t model hug, with it meandering down there in boc models will be everywhere

[PTrackerLA]

12z Euro landfalls @ Intracoastal City, LA 979mb

[PTrackerLA]

Word to the wise don’t model hug, with it meandering down there in boc models will be everywhere

I've been following the Euro ensembles guidance for potential track envelope and intensity. As of last night the Euro operational runs are aligning with the stronger Euro ens members. Central TX coast - MS need to be on guard.