ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

LLC on the very western edge of the convection, further west than where is supposed to be this morning.
Plenty of west winds for wxman57 to keep him happy

https://i.imgur.com/JTI0aoK.png

I'm not happy. 12 days without a day off so far. Maybe by next Wednesday. This appears to be a hurricane in name only. Strongest winds aren't even blowing in toward the center. Very poorly organized. As a weaker system, it does have a chance of tracking closer to Florida, though.

[cp79]

Looks like the track shifted a tiny bit west at the end of this loop. It shifts east in the beginning then slightly west, so it appears


http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/noaaport/radar_sat_anim.gif

That would be insane. Miami isn’t even in the NHC’s cone!

The more reliable models have it more West touching a landfall. I would expect the NHC to shift closer to landfall in Florida at 11

Wouldn't doubt that now after seeing the 6z Euro is now hitting Miami/S.Fla.

[drezee]

Going to spit out the LLC at this rate..

[Airboy]

North of the center:
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 41 kts (47.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 63 kts (72.5 mph)

[bqknight]

SIAP but this is a good updating radar loop.

https://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropic ... ahamas.gif

[ava_ati]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1289174145222107142

[gatorcane]

Given the models shifting west, will hurricane watches go up for South Florida and portions of the Florida east coast?

[wx98]

If this doesn’t get going again fast, they should probably downgrade to a 55-60 kt tropical storm.

[DestinHurricane]

Given the models shifting west, will hurricane watches go up for South Florida and portions of the Florida east coast?

Doubt it. If it's a hurricane it will stay east. If it goes into Florida it will not be a hurricane. They should upgrade the TS watches to warnings though.

[Jevo]

Given the models shifting west, will hurricane watches go up for South Florida and portions of the Florida east coast?

Hit or miss.. this this thing is going to be dealing with so much westerly shear that it can be sitting over Freeport and Boca would have breezy sunny skies.

[tarheelprogrammer]

If a US landfall is going to occur, a weak TS into SFL is not a bad choice. Much better option, as it doesn't have time to get stronger thanks to dry air and shear. Hope it fizzles out before SFL. Best case scenario there.

[DestinHurricane]

Given the models shifting west, will hurricane watches go up for South Florida and portions of the Florida east coast?

Hit or miss.. this this thing is going to be dealing with so much westerly shear that it can be sitting over Freeport and Boca would have breezy sunny skies.

All the convection will be to west so it could be sitting over Boca and Boca have sunny skies with a breeze.

[NDG]

Incredible flooding going on in the D.R.

 https://twitter.com/LEOVING/status/1289177125757440010

[Weatherboy1]

Kind of a good news/bad news situation here this morning. Good? Isaias getting sheared, which will cap intensification and may have caused some weakening already. Bad? Seems models are shifting back west this morning, which increases the chance of a South FL landfall/grazing by the system. Will be interesting to watch how things go the next several hours. I'm guessing NHC upgrades TS Watch to a Warning for east coast FL at 11 a.m. May add a hurricane watch at 5 p.m. if system can hold together.

[AutoPenalti]

Given the models shifting west, will hurricane watches go up for South Florida and portions of the Florida east coast?

Hit or miss.. this this thing is going to be dealing with so much westerly shear that it can be sitting over Freeport and Boca would have breezy sunny skies.

All the convection will be to west so it could be sitting over Boca and Boca have sunny skies with a breeze.

That’s not how it works.

[DestinHurricane]

Hit or miss.. this this thing is going to be dealing with so much westerly shear that it can be sitting over Freeport and Boca would have breezy sunny skies.

All the convection will be to west so it could be sitting over Boca and Boca have sunny skies with a breeze.

That’s not it works.

It will be a little naked swirl I mean.

Here's a perfect example: https://twitter.com/DaDaBuh/status/1197135282195308544

[Evil Jeremy]

TS warnings for SFL (and an extension of the watches further north) at 11am I think is a given this point. Looking at the models, NHC might make the most minor of shifts back West, and wait to see if the 12z guidance solidified that trend.

[TheStormExpert]

Here’s the shear that some were doubting would effect Isaias. Not to mention there is SAL out ahead of him over Florida which was mentioned on yesterday afternoon’s Miami NWS Forecast Discussion. Probably not even a hurricane anymore, hopefully won’t ever become one again.

[TheStormExpert]

Given the models shifting west, will hurricane watches go up for South Florida and portions of the Florida east coast?

TS warnings yes, hurricane watches/warnings will greatly depend on if it can maintain or re-intensify. The environment out ahead in The Bahamas must be more hostile than some have thought, even you were mentioning this days ago.

[b0tzy29]

Quick question for the collective group here - i live on south shore long island on the water. My home and neighborhood were decimated by Sandy. Should i be worried with this one? The models aren't looking to good for southern New England...