ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Airboy]

Eye begining to been seen on visible?

[Chris_in_Tampa]

NASA satellite:

Visible:
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/g ... te=ir1.pal

IR:
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/g ... te=ir2.pal

[Jr0d]

I don't like the looks of the last couple of satellite frames. Looks like an eye is trying to pop out. I did not expect strengthening however the radar, satellite and especially pressure suggest it is currently strengthening.

I am praying Sally jogs far enough east to spare Mobile Bay from the south winds and max surge. Unfortunately there is no escaping the flooding rains in the impact area.

CIRA Slider Visible zoomed in

[NDG]

Buoy south of Orange Beach, still showing 83.5 F since this morning. Plenty of warm to slowly intensify before landfall. IMO.



https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42012

[northjaxpro]

I don't like the looks of the last couple of satellite frames. Looks like an eye is trying to pop out. I did not expect strengthening however the radar, satellite and especially pressure suggest it is currently strengthening.

I am praying Sally jogs far enough east to spare Mobile Bay from the south winds and max surge. Unfortunately there is no escaping the flooding rains in the impact area.

Deep convective bands on the northern eyewall definitely is trying to wrap around.on radar imagery. I am watching that closely.

[LowerAlabamaTider]

Getting some much stronger gusts here in Mobile now

[bella_may]

Still “moving” NW or maybe NNW

[Aric Dunn]

Our new location farter east. Perdido key. Where we will stream from. Looks like best landfall point.

https://www.facebook.com/10212035498142 ... 984972564/

[NDG]

Dropsonde 980 mb, 16 knot winds.

[NDG]

Our new location farter east. Perdido key. Where we will stream from. Looks like best landfall point.

https://www.facebook.com/10212035498142 ... 984972564/

Good choice.

[Nimbus]

18z sounding from Slidell LA, shows dry air on the NW quadrant of the circulation but notice the stacked circulation all the way up to h20, that dry air is just circulation around it and not being punched into it, unless there is SW shear on the SW quadrant into the circulation.

https://i.imgur.com/pixv3CM.gif

The 200 MB winds are a little biased but that doesn't seem to be having any effect on intensity and tracking.
Might be enough of a north jog to start the landfall timer but this isn't going to be good, slow moving hurricanes are always the worst and even inland its going to take too long for that trough to arrive and scoop her out of the watershed.

[Javlin]

I’ve seen some here mention before that a good guess for landfall point will be where the lowest pressures are along the coast. The lowest pressures at this time are in the Gulf Shores/Orange Beach area. That is likely a good guess for landfall in my opinion.

Yes it is. It's old school forecasting that the old guy tv mets used to use when I was a kid. And I'm old. When it is most useful is with a moving storm and you want to narrow down a landfall range.

Besides looking for lowest pressure, another thing to look for is pressure falls. If a buoy or land station shows a rapid fall compared to other stations, you can generally lay your money down that's where it's going.

So lets see if this works two buoys Port of Pascagoula fell from 29.71@10am to 29.58 @ 2:24pm
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=ptbm6

Then Fort Morgan was 29.71@10:24am and now is 29.54 @2:18pm
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=fmoa1

With Orange beach 29.78@10am and now @ 29.68@ 2pm
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=ppta1

[bella_may]

Interesting. The strongest winds are still on the west side

[northjaxpro]

Good to hear from you Aric. Take care out there!

[Steve]

We finally get to join the party with a break away band on radar of light blues. Haha. Still nice to get 5-10 minutes of rain and a couple gusts. Had this been happening yesterday, the western side would have been moistened up a bit. Better than nothing and I made sure to stick my arm out and get rained on and to stick out my tongue and get a sip. I think it’s the 4th or 5th or so system we got a raindrop from.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[tolakram]

Looks really good, no sign of any shear. Give the GFS and HWRF (and the latest Euro) models credit, all had a strengthening storm heading towards landfall. Hopefully the shear picks up soon.

[ClarCari]

Right now it looks like it’s starting to get a “blurry” cloudy eye just like Hanna had exactly when she made landfall.

[cheezyWXguy]

Interesting. The strongest winds are still on the west side

Consistent with radar, consistently seeing bins of 100-105mph on the west vs 90-95 on the east

[us89]

Atlanta now under a flash flood watch.

Expecting 6 to 8 inches of rain across the metro. Will definitely be worse than Michael.