ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneEdouard]

While the storms are different and headed on their own unique paths, the scene in the western Atlantic this morning is remarkably reminiscent of a similar scene in August 2004, with storms at similar intensities.

4.8 MB. Source: Bonnie/Charley image from the now defunct website Operational Significant Event Imagery. RGB composite of Marco and Laura made using data from NASA MSFC.
https://i.imgur.com/gigRAcu.png

How did you make the latter composite? I really miss the unique look of the OSEI RGB visible imagery, and would love to recreate it!

[NDG]

GTMO naval base is now reporting ENE winds, the LLC will pass to the south of them most likely.

MUGM19.91/-75.16 @ 55ft.
Name:Guantanamo Bay
Provider:NWS/FAA
Valid:23 Aug 2:29 PM EDT
Temp:83 °F28 °C
Dew Point:76 °F24 °C
Relh:79 %
Wind Speed:23 mph20 kts
Wind Dir:ENE70°
Gust:32 mph28 kts
Heat Index:91 °F
Altimeter:29.75 in
Visibility:10.00 mi
Clouds:Thin Scattered @ 3000 ft
Broken @ 5000 ft
Overcast @ 6500 ft

[StormTracker]

One of my favorite satellite views/sites: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined thank me later

Thank you!!!

[CyclonicFury]

Whoever believes 12z Euro's weaker run on Laura as it heads north in the GOM is not using logic, first of all Euro has been really bad with both systems' forecast strength all along, and very inconsistent, secondly Marco is a hurricane despite much higher windshear that it is going through than what Laura will have while in the GOM.

I have a hard time believing that run, the Euro has been much worse this season than in recent years. It never even acknowledged Marco until it became a tropical cyclone.

[hohnywx]

Whoever believes 12z Euro's weaker run on Laura as it heads north in the GOM is not using logic, first of all Euro has been really bad with both systems' forecast strength all along, and very inconsistent, secondly Marco is a hurricane despite much higher windshear that it is going through than what Laura will have while in the GOM.

Yes, we all have short-term memory. As you say, the Euro has been terrible since the beginning with these storms. Normally, you would hope it would be better as landfall time edges closer.

[Sanibel]

Up the spine of Cuba now for its next speed break...

[Nimbus]

saved loop

https://imgur.com/2wYTn6e

Really nice loop. She has a very vigorous spin. Looks to be headed directly towards some of very tall mountains of eastern Cuba.

From Manzanillo Bay WNW Laura will probably stay over water just one area with some 2200 foot mountains to disrupt the core.

[ConvergenceZone]

saved loop

https://imgur.com/2wYTn6e

Really nice loop. She has a very vigorous spin. Looks to be headed directly towards some of very tall mountains of eastern Cuba.

And the weather channel is saying that it might even be stronger than a Cat 2 at landfall due to how well it's holding up. They said the reason it's holding up so well is because of such a extremely large circulation, thus mountains aren't going to do anything to it, other than maybe take it down 5 or 10 mph at the most, then it will be back over water again.

[Nimbus]

saved loop

https://imgur.com/2wYTn6e

Really nice loop. She has a very vigorous spin. Looks to be headed directly towards some of very tall mountains of eastern Cuba.

And the weather channel is saying that it might even be stronger than a Cat 2 at landfall due to how well it's holding up. They said the reason it's holding up so well is because of such a extremely large circulation, thus mountains aren't going to do anything to it, other than maybe take it down 5 or 10 mph at the most, then it will be back over water again.

I think that may have more to do with 48 hours over steaming hot SST's..

[HurricaneEdouard]

Whoever believes 12z Euro's weaker run on Laura as it heads north in the GOM is not using logic, first of all Euro has been really bad with both systems' forecast strength all along, and very inconsistent, secondly Marco is a hurricane despite much higher windshear that it is going through than what Laura will have while in the GOM.

I have a hard time believing that run, the Euro has been much worse this season than in recent years. It never even acknowledged Marco until it became a tropical cyclone.

I feel this bears repeating: EURO is not one of the more reliable models when it comes to intensity, nor are globals generally. Its legendary reputation stems from the fact that (ignoring the consensus aids, of course) it is the most reliable track model. EURO (and the GFS, for that matter) was one of the least accurate intensity models in 2019; HWRF was one of the most accurate, tendency to overintensify storms notwithstanding. This pattern is continuing in 2020.

[shiny-pebble]

Regarding forward speed in the Gulf:

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1297607880854720524

[Hurricaneman]

Pressure is 1004 according to recon and 47kt smfr so basically what the NHC has for Laura

[TallyTracker]

The first part of this track largely reminds me of Fay 2008. Very little disruption from Hispaniola and Cuba. As soon as it got north of Cuba it quickly reached strong TS strength over a short distance. Problem with Laura is that it has 48 hours over hot water.

[Blinhart]

Pressure is 1004 according to recon and 47kt smfr so basically what the NHC has for Laura

But is that at the LLC, I thought that was north of Cuba.

[SoupBone]

Whoever believes 12z Euro's weaker run on Laura as it heads north in the GOM is not using logic, first of all Euro has been really bad with both systems' forecast strength all along, and very inconsistent, secondly Marco is a hurricane despite much higher windshear that it is going through than what Laura will have while in the GOM.

If that's the case, I'd expect the NHC to not use those runs, and put something in their discussion about it. Otherwise, you'd end up with an obvious east shift in their forecast.

[NDG]

Recon finding lower pressures with Laura. Pressure ~998mb, at 19.49N 74.55W

AF305 0813A LAURA HDOB 27 20200823
190330 1950N 07423W 6961 03147 //// +086 //// 107035 038 048 003 01
190400 1948N 07424W 6965 03141 //// +085 //// 103037 039 047 002 01
190430 1947N 07425W 6968 03135 0045 +088 //// 103033 035 041 004 01
190500 1945N 07426W 6963 03137 0033 +089 //// 100035 037 041 003 01
190530 1944N 07427W 6973 03121 9997 +103 +098 085027 034 040 001 01
190600 1942N 07428W 6962 03137 0000 +111 +092 076024 025 042 005 00
190630 1940N 07428W 6956 03135 0025 +096 //// 105009 025 042 006 01
190700 1938N 07427W 6950 03142 //// +090 //// 081004 009 043 005 01
190730 1936N 07427W 6969 03125 //// +096 //// 093008 009 042 002 01
190800 1935N 07427W 6976 03121 0006 +106 +092 124012 015 042 004 00
190830 1933N 07428W 6969 03130 0024 +100 +090 138014 016 042 008 00
190900 1931N 07429W 6962 03135 //// +088 //// 158019 020 040 004 01
190930 1930N 07430W 6969 03126 0012 +098 +095 151020 021 040 004 03
191000 1929N 07432W 6964 03127 9995 +109 +097 129014 020 040 004 03
191030 1928N 07433W 6965 03127 9984 +120 +088 128009 011 038 001 03
191100 1926N 07434W 6965 03125 9991 +113 +091 158011 012 038 002 03
191130 1925N 07435W 6966 03124 9992 +109 +095 160005 010 033 001 00
191200 1925N 07437W 6961 03130 9995 +106 +096 011007 012 026 000 00
191230 1924N 07439W 6969 03121 0000 +102 +099 356019 021 026 000 03
191300 1923N 07440W 6965 03129 //// +097 //// 355029 031 031 003 01
$$

[Highteeld]

How much parallax error is GOES-16 creating with Laura right now? 15 miles or so?

[hohnywx]

Whoever believes 12z Euro's weaker run on Laura as it heads north in the GOM is not using logic, first of all Euro has been really bad with both systems' forecast strength all along, and very inconsistent, secondly Marco is a hurricane despite much higher windshear that it is going through than what Laura will have while in the GOM.

I have a hard time believing that run, the Euro has been much worse this season than in recent years. It never even acknowledged Marco until it became a tropical cyclone.

I feel this bears repeating: EURO is not one of the more reliable models when it comes to intensity, nor are globals generally. Its legendary reputation stems from the fact that (ignoring the consensus aids, of course) it is the most reliable track model. EURO (and the GFS, for that matter) was one of the least accurate intensity models in 2019; HWRF was one of the most accurate, tendency to overintensify storms notwithstanding. This pattern is continuing in 2020.

https://i.imgur.com/fRHcYZB.png

Interesting stuff! I would have never thought the HWRF would be one of the most accurate, considering the dismissive nature towards it by many here (including a few pros). Thank you for sharing.

[CrazyC83]

Pressure looks to be 998 and the center is about 55 miles SE of Guantanamo Bay. As for the intensity, 50 kt looks reasonable.

[Jr0d]

Recon is showing sub-1000mb with the low being southeast of Gitmo, the strongest flight level winds were on the north coast of Cuba.

Definitely a broad system. Guessing it wont be too disrupted by the mountains.