ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[toad strangler]

The calendar doesn't lie. It's do or die time for a CONUS threat and it looks like the latter is at hand.

There have been CONUS hits in November before.

#TWO since 1851 and neither one came from the Caribbean

[SFLcane]

Levi mentioned in his video last night the possibility of 95L getting caught between two different steering flows and sticking in the WCar for a few days before the ridge arrives. Based on how the system appears to have relocated further SW of the Cayman Islands, that scenario might be becoming ever more likely. It could also be safer from the potential moisture stretching that the GFS shows.

This is exactly what is happening in my opinion atleast with a relocation further SW was all that was needed to give the ridge sometime to build. At this point the longer it sits down there the Yucatán might have to watch as any north motion will essentially be blocked. Other then that I feel for gulfcoast residents what a season for them.

[Do_For_Love]

Levi mentioned in his video last night the possibility of 95L getting caught between two different steering flows and sticking in the WCar for a few days before the ridge arrives. Based on how the system appears to have relocated further SW of the Cayman Islands, that scenario might be becoming ever more likely. It could also be safer from the potential moisture stretching that the GFS shows.

Sounds pretty dangerous. I think I remember him mentioning some potential problems for proto-zeta with dry air from the western gulf if it tracks that way, though. Hopefully that's true, let's give the region a break, lol...

[NDG]

No wonder the 06z Euro came in stronger with 95L, it shows a not so bad UL winds environment in the GOM for this time of the year, wow!

[aspen]

Levi mentioned in his video last night the possibility of 95L getting caught between two different steering flows and sticking in the WCar for a few days before the ridge arrives. Based on how the system appears to have relocated further SW of the Cayman Islands, that scenario might be becoming ever more likely. It could also be safer from the potential moisture stretching that the GFS shows.

Sounds pretty dangerous. I think I remember him mentioning some potential problems for proto-zeta with dry air from the western gulf if it tracks that way, though. Hopefully that's true, let's give the region a break, lol...

Yeah, he pointed out a ton of dry air sitting in the Gulf that could try to be a problem for 95L. I think it’s more of a problem on the GFS run he was using because the system’s moisture field gets stretched out, which might be less likely with a further SW and potentially stronger system.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The calendar doesn't lie. It's do or die time for a CONUS threat and it looks like the latter is at hand.

You underestimate this season's irrational hatred for Louisiana.

[StAuggy]

Levi mentioned in his video last night the possibility of 95L getting caught between two different steering flows and sticking in the WCar for a few days before the ridge arrives. Based on how the system appears to have relocated further SW of the Cayman Islands, that scenario might be becoming ever more likely. It could also be safer from the potential moisture stretching that the GFS shows.

This is exactly what is happening in my opinion atleast with a relocation further SW was all that was needed to give the ridge sometime to build. At this point the longer it sits down there the Yucatán might have to watch as any north motion will essentially be blocked. Other then that I feel for gulfcoast residents what a season for them.

All things considered if this indeed takes longer to make its big move north, that would also mean there’s a chance the ridge ends up further east than predicted

[aspen]

The circulation is still broad on visible satellite imagery (I can see westward moving cirrus clouds as north as the Cuban coast), but all of that <-75C convection firing further south should tighten up the circulation there.

[Blown Away]

No way this late October storm will be a strait forward NW track out of the Caribbean into the NGOM like it’s September. I think a trapped storm under HP in the NW Caribbean looping around and either bury’s into CA, quickly ejects NE over Fl Peninsula or S, or never really pulls together. I’m laying heavy bet on Climo this time.

[toad strangler]

The calendar doesn't lie. It's do or die time for a CONUS threat and it looks like the latter is at hand.

You underestimate this season's irrational hatred for Louisiana.

Nah, if this tracks that way it likely will be very weak given the huge amount of dry air heading that way.

[caneman]

The calendar doesn't lie. It's do or die time for a CONUS threat and it looks like the latter is at hand.

There have been CONUS hits in November before.

#TWO since 1851 and neither one came from the Caribbean

Have you not learned anything from 2020? Further, climo is just a guide, it doesn't predict the future. At some point there would be a 3rd storm.

[Iceresistance]

The circulation is still broad on visible satellite imagery (I can see westward moving cirrus clouds as north as the Cuban coast), but all of that <-75C convection firing further south should tighten up the circulation there.

Might be able to see circulation here:http://www.weather.gov.ky/radar_images/radar/400km_ppi.gif

[toad strangler]

There have been CONUS hits in November before.

#TWO since 1851 and neither one came from the Caribbean

Have you not learned anything from 2020? Further, climo is just a guide, it doesn't predict the future. At some point there would be a 3rd storm.

Don't hold your breath.

[Blown Away]

Drifting SW?

[aspen]

Drifting SW?

Relocating SW it seems. Consistent <-80C hot towers will do that. If the exact LLC concentrates further SW of the Cayman Islands than how the models initialized it, 95L’s future track and intensity will likely become even more uncertain.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks to be drifting westward at a crawl. I would not be surprised to see a hurricane on the western edge of the Ridge once it reaches the central Gulf but more than likely weakening as it comes toward the upper Gulf Coast. SST's drop and there should be increasing westerly shear.

[Weatherboy1]

That track by the Euro is highly unusual if you look at climo. I couldn’t find one storm that took that track in late October in 150 years of historical tracks.

Historical tracks. All of the ones that impacted the northern and western Gulf were in early or mid October.

Image courtesy of:

https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/news/hist ... urricanes/

https://i.postimg.cc/yNWvHwjg/8-FD572-B9-D663-444-A-967-B-CB01-C9-E1-F685.png

To use one of my favorite expressions, I would bet dollars to donuts this never makes landfall further west than Panama City Beach area or so ... and that models will shift East to
Reflect that in next couple cycles. Climo isn’t everything but This time of year it’s far more likely that a system in this area will get swept NNE or NE. Irene classic case where models were too far west over and over

[cp79]

That track by the Euro is highly unusual if you look at climo. I couldn’t find one storm that took that track in late October in 150 years of historical tracks.

Historical tracks. All of the ones that impacted the northern and western Gulf were in early or mid October.

Image courtesy of:

https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/news/hist ... urricanes/

https://i.postimg.cc/yNWvHwjg/8-FD572-B9-D663-444-A-967-B-CB01-C9-E1-F685.png

To use one of my favorite expressions, I would bet dollars to donuts this never makes landfall further west than Panama City Beach area or so ... and that models will shift East to
Reflect that in next couple cycles. Climo isn’t everything but This time of year it’s far more likely that a system in this area will get swept NNE or NE. Irene classic case where models were too far west over and over

If it goes further west than Panama, it’ll get ripped to shreds. The consensus for days has been the further west it goes in the Gulf, the weaker it is. I am surprised to see any storm move west this time of year. So strange.

[tiger_deF]

I think 95L is looking really good right now, deep convection has been firing for the past ~10 hours and rotation is more and more evident on satellite loops. As for the drift SW, I think it is more indicative of a lack of steering currents than any major shift

[NDG]

It looks to me the LLC is still displaced to the north of the MLC further south. Recon should find it to be at least a TD if not a TS, IMO.