ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1313094680473726977

[aspen]

The NHC put Delta at 16.4N, but that microwave pass from earlier this morning suggests it’s even further south at 16.0N. It’s so far south from the previously estimated positions that it has a reasonable chance of hitting the Yucatán instead of Cuba. Also, with its slower movement and center reposition, it’ll have a little more time to organize and intensify.

[us89]

https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1313094680473726977

That would otherwise explain the otherwise-rare occurrence of the GFS intensifying a storm much further than the HWRF/HMON. The 06z runs of the hurricane models showed Delta struggling to drop below 980 mb, while that GFS run has a peak in the 960s.

[NDG]

Delta is getting organized fairly quick this morning, the quicker and stronger it gets before tracking over the cooler coastal waters of the northern GOM the greater the chance it has of staying at least a Cat 1 if not Cat 2 as it makes landfall somewhere within the current cone of uncertainty. If it tracks through the Yucatan Channel I will not doubt it will become a Cat 3 sooner than later in the southern GOM if not over the Yucatan Channel.
GFS shows a very good environment as it tracks over that area.

[AutoPenalti]

Doesn't relocation of Delta mean a slower progression to the gulf that will allow the trough to have more time to dig down?

[kevin]

https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1313094680473726977

The euro (which has been very conservative with intensity or even cyclone formation all season) also shows a 964 mbar hurricane nearing the US in its 06z run, so for now I'm also not putting that much weight in the latest HMON and HWRF runs. We have to wait for 12z to get a better idea, but I don't see how this could be caused by something else than the poor initialization. It would be quite something if HWRF/HMON suddenly go down in intensity now that GFS/euro are quite bullish on a storm for the first time in quite a while, especially this early in Delta's formation.

[Aric Dunn]

Doesn't relocation of Delta mean a slower progression to the gulf that will allow the trough to have more time to dig down?

Sure does.

So as I mentioned before. if gamma does not move. we should see a right shift in the early track and with this slower movement probably a right shift in the late track.

anywhere from big bend to eastern LA still in play.

[NDG]

I was just thinking that if Gamma would had not been in the picture right now Delta would had not been much of an issue in the GOM with so much cool dry air along the northern gulf coast. But what Gamma has done is pumped in very warm moist air into the SE GOM which will continue to rotate NW towards the rest of the GOM ahead of Delta.

[cycloneye]

26L DELTA 201005 1200 16.4N 78.3W ATL 35 1004

[StPeteMike]

Until Gamma is gone, I think models aren’t quite certain on Delta’s track yet. A stronger Gamma made a track towards LA more sense, as the two storms would have somewhat of a Fujiwara Effect while in the GOM. But with Gamma likely (but not 100%) dissipating before Delta enters the Gulf and a stronger than predicted storm, I won’t buy into the models yet.

[GCANE]

A couple warm-core features showing up around the hot towers firing close to the CoC.
Eyewall development likely underway.

[supercane4867]

Rocket fuels ahead

[tiger_deF]

Rocket fuels ahead

https://i.imgur.com/kb8jft8.png

If Delta runs right into that cold eddy I see rapid weakening as a possibility, but if it moves just a little to the left of it than the high octane fuel continues throughout a good portion of the gulf

[cheezyWXguy]

Rocket fuels ahead

https://i.imgur.com/kb8jft8.png

If Delta runs right into that cold eddy I see rapid weakening as a possibility, but if it moves just a little to the left of it than the high octane fuel continues throughout a good portion of the gulf

I would be interested to see sst’s in addition to ohc. Ohc may be low in that area, but if sst’s are sufficiently high it may not make much difference since the storm will be moving decently fast

[TallyTracker]

Rocket fuels ahead

https://i.imgur.com/kb8jft8.png

If Delta runs right into that cold eddy I see rapid weakening as a possibility, but if it moves just a little to the left of it than the high octane fuel continues throughout a good portion of the gulf

As long as Delta is moving over the low OHC pool at a good speed, it should be able to at least maintain itself. Low OHC becomes a bigger issue with slow moving tropical cyclones. The water temps in that area are still above 26C; they just have very little depth.

[aspen]

Rocket fuels ahead

https://i.imgur.com/kb8jft8.png

I guess you can say Delta has a ton of delta-v.

I apologize for such a terrible pun, but I’ve been waiting for the right opportunity to use it.

[us89]

Even if Gamma is still around in a couple days when Delta gets up to the northwest Caribbean, it likely won't have much of an influence on Delta's track. Gamma is already a weak storm and likely to continue weakening, but all signs are pointing towards Delta becoming much stronger in the next couple days. A Fujiwhara interaction at that point would probably tear Gamma apart while barely affecting Delta.

[GCANE]

CoC relocated south.
Hot tower now firing on top of the relocated CoC.

[kevin]

Rocket fuels ahead

https://i.imgur.com/kb8jft8.png

I guess you can say Delta has a ton of delta-v.

I apologize for such a terrible pun, but I’ve been waiting for the right opportunity to use it.

How difficult can it be to make an accurate forecast? I mean it's not rocket science... oh wait

[3090]

Until Gamma is gone, I think models aren’t quite certain on Delta’s track yet. A stronger Gamma made a track towards LA more sense, as the two storms would have somewhat of a Fujiwara Effect while in the GOM. But with Gamma likely (but not 100%) dissipating before Delta enters the Gulf and a stronger than predicted storm, I won’t buy into the models yet.

You are going against all conventional wisdom and thought and based off of the influence Gamna will have. You are basically a contrarian in this case. Just saying.