EPAC: DOUGLAS - Remnants

[Yellow Evan]

Could be in the 125-130 knot range. Knocking on the door of being a T 6.5

https://i.imgur.com/Ty5svtJ.png

I’m shocked that raw Ts haven’t started spiking yet. A +19 C eye and a nearly full W ring are present, what more does ADT want?

Because it's analyzing it like this:
https://i.imgur.com/qognDwf.png

That's close enough to whether it would accurately measure it's CDO and eye (hence the eye pattern). What's more notwhorthy about that is that Douglas is a little north than forecast.

The CDO isn't very thick at all. That's what's holding ADT back. Even LG is somewhat shallow.

[Highteeld]

Based off some of the data I have gathered over the last year, I'm calculating Douglas to have flight level winds around 144 knots assuming they fly at standard level.

[aspen]

Still strengthening, white ring is almost wrapped around 100%.
https://i.imgur.com/G1zrvtl.png

That’s no less than 130 kt. A Category 5 seems likely.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 JUL 2020 Time : 225031 UTC
Lat : 14:28:47 N Lon : 137:43:12 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 954.2mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 5.9 5.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : +19.3C Cloud Region Temp : -63.0C

[supercane4867]

[Kingarabian]

Beast. Can't stop looking at it lol.

Stronger it is now, the stronger it will be on approach. Let's hope the ridge ends up being weaker and this finds a way to avoid hitting Hawaii as its ancestors did before it.

[Highteeld]

https://i.imgur.com/z5ThuBM.gif

Looks like a WPAC super typhoon. Amazing banding features.

[Yellow Evan]

B might be thick enough actually.

[Bocadude85]

I’m wonder if the ridge will be just weak enough to allow Douglas to slip north of the islands? It’s going to be close either way though.

[Kingarabian]

https://i.imgur.com/z5ThuBM.gif

Looks like a WPAC super typhoon. Amazing banding features.

This is a system where if Recon goes in, they would find borderline Cat.5.

[Kingarabian]

I’m wonder if the ridge will be just weak enough to allow Douglas to slip north of the islands? It’s going to be close either way though.

Even the more northern members of the 12z-18z guidance barely cleared Hawaii and that was the UKMET.

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/BSbYxhP.jpg

B might be thick enough actually.

If an EWRC doesn’t try to start within the next few hours, diurnal max could help thicker that W ring. I really hope this is enough for the NHC to give it a well deserved 120-130 kt.

[CryHavoc]

https://i.imgur.com/z5ThuBM.gif

Stadium effect clearly visible from that image.

Max cat 4 to decent Cat 5 IMO from that gif.

[Yellow Evan]

Actually CDO thickening. Might qualify for T6.5 now but I'd need to measure.

[HurricaneEnzo]

I feel fairly confident if this had recon they would be finding a cat 5 right now. 140-145kts. Douglas is a picture perfect beast.

[aspen]

Second eyewall has formed, so an EWRC is imminent. Just needs to hold off a little longer so Douglas can get upgraded.

[TheStormExpert]

The fact that the East Pacific pulled a complete 180 in a week is impressive!

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 JUL 2020 Time : 235031 UTC
Lat : 14:37:48 N Lon : 137:57:36 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 953.4mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 6.0 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : +19.2C Cloud Region Temp : -63.7C

Scene Type : EYE

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ25 KNES 240014
TCSENP

A. 08E (DOUGLAS)

B. 23/2330Z

C. 14.6N

D. 137.9W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.0/6.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY B AND EMBEDDED IN LG RESULTS IN A
DT OF 6.0 AFTER ADDING A 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET IS 6.0 BASED ON RAPID
24 HOUR DEVELOPMENT. PT IS 5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...CLARK

Good fix.

[Highteeld]

Getting 145.6 knots FL winds now.