ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Weatherboy1]

Looking very closely at visible satellite imagery, wondering if a new center might not be trying to pull together off the north coast of Honduras under that building area of convection. Appears like some low clouds might be streaming into that area, along with some mid-level rotation. IF Eta reorganizes off the coast sooner than some models forecast, it likely increases the intensity outlook for down the road. We'll see.

[TallyTracker]

Looks like Eta’s getting into position for it’s run to landfall in Louisiana like just about everything else in the Gulf did this year...lol j/k

[Iceresistance]

At this rate, Florida may be out of the cone entirely by tomorrow. The Florida shield strikes again.


Gotta keep checking runs first, still lot's of time to track this.

Yep. We deflect every storm that comes our way.

If only it could get deflected the other way...

And possibly into the East Coast

[TheStormExpert]

Encouraging news to see the track shift south and bend more west at days 4-5. Probably will just be a rain event for South Florida if trends continue. I wouldn’t be surprised to see more south and west shifts.

https://i.imgur.com/lAz4ZIq.png

But what about Louisiana? They may be hit for the 6th time!

I wouldn’t be surprised if it goes that way honestly at this point. The 00z Euro showed just that.

[Blown Away]

Still thinking the LLC will pull together near 16.5N/84.5W under/near that persistent deep convection. Modeling keeps pulling it together @16.5N/88.5W in @24 hours. I do think we will see some big track changes over next 48 hours.

[Loveweather12]

Still thinking the LLC will pull together near 16.5N/84.5W under/near that persistent deep convection. Modeling keeps pulling it together @16.5N/88.5W in @24 hours. I do think we will see some big track changes over next 48 hours.

Shifts to East or west?

[StPeteMike]

Is there any troughs expected around the end of the 5-day forecast? I’m beginning to wonder if the models aren’t predicting a stronger ridge but more of a breakdown of the steering environment once ETA enters the southeast GOM.

[ElectricStorm]

At this rate, Florida may be out of the cone entirely by tomorrow. The Florida shield strikes again.


Gotta keep checking runs first, still lot's of time to track this.

Yep. We deflect every storm that comes our way.

Irma?

[Cat5James]

Still thinking the LLC will pull together near 16.5N/84.5W under/near that persistent deep convection. Modeling keeps pulling it together @16.5N/88.5W in @24 hours. I do think we will see some big track changes over next 48 hours.

Shifts to East or west?

This would be a shift East

[wxman57]

Both the GFS & Euro now have Eta weakening to a depression (or less) by the time it reaches the northern Gulf coast next Friday or Saturday. Interesting 12Z GFS run with another hurricane heading for the Yucatan Channel the week after next...

As for Eta, we really need to wait and see if, when, and where it redevelops before being more confident in any track.

[Blown Away]

Still thinking the LLC will pull together near 16.5N/84.5W under/near that persistent deep convection. Modeling keeps pulling it together @16.5N/88.5W in @24 hours. I do think we will see some big track changes over next 48 hours.

Shifts to East or west?

I think shifts E, maybe E of 80W, then NNW over/near FL peninsula. I’m probably wrong, but typically when there is so much uncertainty if/where a LLC forms and you see an extremely weird track, I lean towards not buying those weird tracks and go with something more realistic. I know it’s November, but the track being shown by modeling is so unusual.

[wxman57]

The west movement Mon/Tue is due to a ridge building over northern Florida. If that happens, then a track into the FL Peninsula is not likely. I'm just hoping it is inland or dissipated by Thanksgiving.

[TheStormExpert]

Still thinking the LLC will pull together near 16.5N/84.5W under/near that persistent deep convection. Modeling keeps pulling it together @16.5N/88.5W in @24 hours. I do think we will see some big track changes over next 48 hours.

Shifts to East or west?

I think shifts E, maybe E of 80W, then NNW over/near FL peninsula. I’m probably wrong, but typically when there is so much uncertainty if/where a LLC forms and you see an extremely weird track, I lean towards not buying those weird tracks and go with something more realistic. I know it’s November, but the track being shown by modeling is so unusual.

The track might be unusual but so has this season. I mean how often do you see hurricanes such as Delta and Zeta making landfall in Louisiana in October? Not saying that’s where Eta is headed but I’m willing to place a bet on another northern Gulf Coast hit over a Florida peninsula hit.

[TheStormExpert]

The west movement Mon/Tue is due to a ridge building over northern Florida. If that happens, then a track into the FL Peninsula is not likely. I'm just hoping it is inland or dissipated by Thanksgiving.

I just hope this is it for this season!

The storm weary Gulf Coast needs a break.

[NDG]

Nice southerly low level jet starting to set up as pressures begin to fall in the GOH, shouldn't be long before we start seeing a defined surface circulation start redeveloping in the extreme SW area of the GOH.

[toad strangler]

Shifts to East or west?

I think shifts E, maybe E of 80W, then NNW over/near FL peninsula. I’m probably wrong, but typically when there is so much uncertainty if/where a LLC forms and you see an extremely weird track, I lean towards not buying those weird tracks and go with something more realistic. I know it’s November, but the track being shown by modeling is so unusual.

The track might be unusual but so has this season. I mean how often do you see hurricanes such as Delta and Zeta making landfall in Louisiana in October? Not saying that’s where Eta is headed but I’m willing to place a bet on another northern Gulf Coast hit over a Florida peninsula hit.

NOAA clearly shows that tracks into LA are part of October climo and E LA it's actually in the more likely area.

[Nuno]

Nice southerly low level jet starting to set up as pressures begin to fall in the GOH, shouldn't be long before we start seeing a defined surface circulation start redeveloping in the extreme SW area of the GOH.

https://i.imgur.com/MJU2FAf.gif

Been watching this all morning... its a bit further east compared to models too.

[Iceresistance]

Nice southerly low level jet starting to set up as pressures begin to fall in the GOH, shouldn't be long before we start seeing a defined surface circulation start redeveloping in the extreme SW area of the GOH.

https://i.imgur.com/MJU2FAf.gif

Not far East of the convection you are talking about, there are low-level clouds rapidly moving west.

[NDG]

Nice southerly low level jet starting to set up as pressures begin to fall in the GOH, shouldn't be long before we start seeing a defined surface circulation start redeveloping in the extreme SW area of the GOH.

https://i.imgur.com/MJU2FAf.gif

Not far East of the convection you are talking about, there are low-level clouds rapidly moving west.

Yes, but lowest pressure are over western Honduras and Belize, where the low surface low should start moving over water, from there it will follow the convection been sheared to the NE.

[Iceresistance]

Nice southerly low level jet starting to set up as pressures begin to fall in the GOH, shouldn't be long before we start seeing a defined surface circulation start redeveloping in the extreme SW area of the GOH.

https://i.imgur.com/MJU2FAf.gif

Not far East of the convection you are talking about, there are low-level clouds rapidly moving west.

Yes, but lowest pressure are over western Honduras and Belize, where the low surface low should start moving over water, from there it will follow the convection been sheared to the NE.

There is a noticable circulation over the EPAC