ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve]

Looking at a 3-hr radar loop with lat/lon lines plotted, it does appear as if Sally has wobbled a little northward. This does not imply it is moving or has turned north.

Yep, Recon was reporting it reaching north of 29N.....that's a drift northward.

It also crossed 88W. Slight NW drift just like the NHC says.

[Dean4Storms]

Still a big difference in timing with Sally's landfall between the GFS & Euro, the GFS shows around 5 AM tomorrow morning while the Euro not until around 4 AM Thursday morning.

You have to wonder if maybe the 06z GFS has the more recent NOAA samplings and the ECM operating from late yesterday. Only reason I can come up with for that big a discrepancy.

[Dean4Storms]

Looking at a 3-hr radar loop with lat/lon lines plotted, it does appear as if Sally has wobbled a little northward. This does not imply it is moving or has turned north.

Yep, Recon was reporting it reaching north of 29N.....that's a drift northward.

It also crossed 88W. Slight NW drift just like the NHC says.

Yea, over all I'd say the long term motion right now would be a drift NW, but see the Recon drops and it drifted NE a bit then North just after reaching past 88W. Like WXMan said, a wobble. Guess we're in wobble watching mode.

[Blow_Hard]

Still a big difference in timing with Sally's landfall between the GFS & Euro, the GFS shows around 5 AM tomorrow morning while the Euro not until around 4 AM Thursday morning.

Crazy disagreement for a storm so close to landfall, no? With Laura, they pretty much nailed landfall with a consensus like 3 days out. I guess the steering currents are just much weaker here...

Juan in 1985 comes to mind. Steering broke down and he looped around off the Louisiana Coast finally coming ashore around P’cola after several days of loitering.

[bella_may]

Appears we might have a closed eye?

[NDG]

Still a big difference in timing with Sally's landfall between the GFS & Euro, the GFS shows around 5 AM tomorrow morning while the Euro not until around 4 AM Thursday morning.

Crazy disagreement for a storm so close to landfall, no? With Laura, they pretty much nailed landfall with a consensus like 3 days out. I guess the steering currents are just much weaker here...

Still a big difference in timing with Sally's landfall between the GFS & Euro, the GFS shows around 5 AM tomorrow morning while the Euro not until around 4 AM Thursday morning.

You have to wonder if maybe the 06z GFS has the more recent NOAA samplings and the ECM operating from late yesterday. Only reason I can come up with for that big a discrepancy.

I spoke too soon, newly out 06z Euro sped up landfall, now showing around 1 PM tomorrow, almost straight up Mobile Bay, stronger than previous run like the latest GFS.

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks to have drifted slightly nw from last night. Judging by radar and satellite, shear has shifted from S to SW, pushing some of the convection NE

[tolakram]

Still a big difference in timing with Sally's landfall between the GFS & Euro, the GFS shows around 5 AM tomorrow morning while the Euro not until around 4 AM Thursday morning.

You have to wonder if maybe the 06z GFS has the more recent NOAA samplings and the ECM operating from late yesterday. Only reason I can come up with for that big a discrepancy.

For two runs now the Euro (see it at weather.us) has shown Sally wobbling around before slowly creeping north. The GFS has always kept Sally moving, which so far has been wrong. What a mess!

[Dean4Storms]

Appears we might have a closed eye?

It's close but cannot verify that by either Eglin or New Orleans radar, both show open to south side right now. Of course Mobile radar is down for now.

[bella_may]

Appears we might have a closed eye?

It's close but cannot verify that by either Eglin or New Orleans radar, both show open to south side right now. Of course Mobile radar is down for now.

I’m looking at the weather channel radar so I could be wrong lol

[BobHarlem]

Appears we might have a closed eye?

It's close but cannot verify that by either Eglin or New Orleans radar, both show open to south side right now. Of course Mobile radar is down for now.

South is a bit open, but it is wrapping around a lot more than it was earlier this morning. Sally over the last few days seems to look weaker overnight only to pick back up later in the morning.

[Dean4Storms]

This radar site using the Eglin radar is helpful seeing the short term motion of the center because it's right at the edge of the screen.....

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?parms=EVX-N0Q-1-200-100-usa-rad

[stormhunter7]

Looks like double eyewalls on Sally east side .. if she closes off the west side... She may have one more run up with winds... There is a lot of mid level dry air IMO close to center.

[GCANE]

Moat feature on radar.
Last eye drop showed increasing humidity at 700 mb.
Could be dry-air incursion.
Well defined dry-line convection firing to the east of it.

[Chemmers]

Looking at ir it seem that the very cold cloud tops have wrap round the centre, will be veru interesting what the recon plan finds

[tolakram]

Visible loop: https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/grb/meso_vis_sqrt/meso1_60.html

source: https://www.aos.wisc.edu/weather/wx_obs/GOES16.html

[Blown Away]

12z Intensity Guidance seeing Sally @70 knots at landfall... Let's hope this trend continues...

[Blown Away]

Sally a little NNE of the track IMO...

[hurricaneCW]

12z Intensity Guidance seeing Sally @70 knots at landfall... Let's hope this trend continues...

The flooding was always the biggest issue and that's not going away.

[Chemmers]

Lightning near the centre again, maybe getting ready to intensify again?