ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1323737070553235458

Some good news they didn't get the Cat 5 monster we thought would happen... The rain, ugh...

Instead they got a Cat.4 monster.

The tweet implied Cat 2-3 winds and center was just S... That community hopefully missed the core...

[jlauderdal]

King may be the best analog for Eta. VortexFl posted links.

Miami nws very aggressive with rainfall totals...cant recall 15 inches mentioned in any disco

[Blown Away]

https://i.imgur.com/0GrJ7yX.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/8pILmfg.jpg
King may be the best analog for Eta. VortexFl posted links.

Miami nws very aggressive with rainfall totals...cant recall 15 inches mentioned in any disco

Snipet from NWS Miami 3:28 Disco: Thursday Through this weekend...
All eyes turn to the strength and path of tropical cyclone Eta
currently located near Nicaragua. The latest long range models are
showing the system to move northeast into somewhere in the NW
Caribbean Sea late this week into this upcoming weekend. At the
same time, a ridge of high pressure over the southeast United
States will move east into the Atlantic waters as a trough of low
pressure develop over the Gulf of mexico and moves northeast into
the Florida Peninsula. This will allow for a tightening pressure
gradient over South Florida late this week into this weekend and
allow for very deep tropical moisture to work into the region from
the Caribbean Sea. Therefore, breezy to windy easterly flow will
develop over South Florida late this week into this weekend along
with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms especially
over the east coast metro areas.

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/0GrJ7yX.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/8pILmfg.jpg
King may be the best analog for Eta. VortexFl posted links.

Miami nws very aggressive with rainfall totals...cant recall 15 inches mentioned in any disco

We’re is the disco calling for 15 inches?

[VortexFl]

"East Coast 7-10" of rain localized amounts up to 15"


.Hydrology...
The long range models are also showing that the PWAT values will
be in the 2.1 to 2.4 inches range which is at the maximum value
for the PWAT values for this time of Year. This means that any
showers and thunderstorms that do develop will be capable of
producing heavy rainfall this weekend. Weather Prediction Center
(WPC) is also forecasting at this time around 3 to 5 inches for
the west coast metro areas to 7 to 10 inches for the east coast
metro areas with isolated amounts up to 15 inches mainly between
Friday early next week. Will continue to monitor the the forecast
model runs on the potential of heavy rainfall for South Florida
this weekend, and if trends continue then a Flood Watch may be
needed late this week for this weekend.
0 likes

[cheezyWXguy]

It is still beyond me how last night’s near perfect presentation equated to 150mph when the current landfall presentation yields 140mph. It’s not like the pressure gradient was flattening out. Despite hints at a double wind maximum, it wasn’t very prominent at all, and hurricane force winds only extended about 25mi from the center.

[SFLcane]

Wow! Going to need a bigger boat

This is Irene 99 type potential

[Iceresistance]

Wow! Going to need a bigger boat

This is Irene 99 type potential

https://i.postimg.cc/3JXDjSVm/637-D313-E-80-D1-4706-933-E-E27-B1448-DCD5.jpg

How strong will Eta be at the Florida landfall?

[wxman57]

I should stress that we don't know how Eta will be structured if and when it redevelops in the Caribbean this weekend, or how crossing Cuba may affect it. I'd say that the FL Peninsula could anticipate 5-10 inches of rain from Sunday through Tuesday, but that's just a guess this far out. We may not really be confident in potential rainfall totals across Florida until late Saturday, once we see what is in the western Caribbean.

[SouthFLTropics]

Wow! Going to need a bigger boat

This is Irene 99 type potential

https://i.postimg.cc/3JXDjSVm/637-D313-E-80-D1-4706-933-E-E27-B1448-DCD5.jpg

How strong will Eta be at the Florida landfall?

That's a 10 million dollar question that can't be known at this time.

[Iceresistance]

I should stress that we don't know how Eta will be structured if and when it redevelops in the Caribbean this weekend, or how crossing Cuba may affect it. I'd say that the FL Peninsula could anticipate 5-10 inches of rain from Sunday through Tuesday, but that's just a guess this far out. We may not really be confident in potential rainfall totals across Florida until late Saturday, once we see what is in the western Caribbean.

Eta is going to be very hard to forecast. . .

[Iceresistance]

Wow! Going to need a bigger boat

This is Irene 99 type potential

https://i.postimg.cc/3JXDjSVm/637-D313-E-80-D1-4706-933-E-E27-B1448-DCD5.jpg

How strong will Eta be at the Florida landfall?

That's a 10 million dollar question that can't be known at this time.

I forgot to say 'according to the model?'

[Jr0d]

Wow! Going to need a bigger boat

This is Irene 99 type potential

https://i.postimg.cc/3JXDjSVm/637-D313-E-80-D1-4706-933-E-E27-B1448-DCD5.jpg

I know a lot of folks here in the Keys feel safe because of Cuba possibly weakening the storm before its near us. This was not the case with Irene of '99.

As the experts are saying...trying to guess intensity right now is tough. Until it re-emerges we will not know what to expect or what the structure will be.

I do think the overall size of the storm will be larger but that does not necessarily mean a stronger storm.

[underthwx]

Wow! Going to need a bigger boat


https://i.postimg.cc/3JXDjSVm/637-D313-E-80-D1-4706-933-E-E27-B1448-DCD5.jpg

How strong will Eta be at the Florida landfall?

That's a 10 million dollar question that can't be known at
this time.

Kind of like predicting the winner of an election...

[MetroMike]

I should stress that we don't know how Eta will be structured if and when it redevelops in the Caribbean this weekend, or how crossing Cuba may affect it. I'd say that the FL Peninsula could anticipate 5-10 inches of rain from Sunday through Tuesday, but that's just a guess this far out. We may not really be confident in potential rainfall totals across Florida until late Saturday, once we see what is in the western Caribbean.

That is correct, Precip forecasts are subject to large errors more than a couple days out.
Not an exact science as variables abound.

[Ken711]

What is the terrain like in Cuba for the forecasted NHC track?

[AJC3]

https://i.imgur.com/0GrJ7yX.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/8pILmfg.jpg
King may be the best analog for Eta. VortexFl posted links.

I was just about to post something along this line. The synoptic setup is pretty much textbook for a N-NW "slingshot" into Florida. Cutoff low over the GOMEX shears out into a negative tilt trough, with a strong blocking ridge over the western Atlantic and eastern U.S. coast. It's hard for me to envision this *not* having a significant impact on Florida.

[got ants?]

Haven't been watching this closely the past few days (my brother passed away saturday).. but if it does vomes this way we are in trouble.

Its rained every single day in October which very unusual. My backyard had water 4" sitting for a week. It caused my septic to back up/over flow. No trick or treaters as our streets were flooded. Saturday alone we had anout 10" of rain.

While the water has finally resided, more rain within a week will have some areas flooding, water inside houses. All bodies of water are full, lakes/ponds, etc..

Just more of 2020, I huess...

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/0GrJ7yX.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/8pILmfg.jpg
King may be the best analog for Eta. VortexFl posted links.

I was just about to post something along this line. The synoptic setup is pretty much textbook for a N-NW "slingshot" into Florida. Cutoff low over the GOMEX shears out into a negative tilt trough, with a strong blocking ridge over the western Atlantic and eastern U.S. coast. It's hard for me to envision this *not* having a significant impact on Florida.

[chaser1]

https://i.imgur.com/0GrJ7yX.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/8pILmfg.jpg
King may be the best analog for Eta. VortexFl posted links.

I was just about to post something along this line. The synoptic setup is pretty much textbook for a N-NW "slingshot" into Florida. Cutoff low over the GOMEX shears out into a negative tilt trough, with a strong blocking ridge over the western Atlantic and eastern U.S. coast. It's hard for me to envision this *not* having a significant impact on Florida.

Agreed. I think a reasonable wind event would range anywhere from a weak T.S to a Cat 1 hurricane. The biggest key however may be unlike King '50 where that storm took a pretty straight path right up the spine of Florida. If next week verifies, I'd think it could be a broader "nuisance" wind event possibly impacting many more people over a larger area. Precip impact might be tremendous if the system stalls or tracks erratically, or actually pulls off a hat-trick Florida landfall (Keys or S. Fla, then bend west over Central Fla. into the GOM, then north or NE over the Big Bend. Like always, timing will impact intensity and track. I'm thinking perhaps some blended average between the operational GFS-Para and Euro for ultimate track & timing, and the HWRF for plausible intensity.