ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[underthwx]

https://twitter.com/YucAlMomento/status/1323716582242091009

This video is is from the Phillipines .. I remember seeing it

Thanks, I removed it.

Good grief!!!...if I may ask, what typhoon is that video showing?...

[longhorn2004]

Most storms continue into the Pacific, why is this doing a boomerang? Especially since there is a High sitting over Florida.

[Evil Jeremy]

Advisory package being rolled out. Day 5 point now right in the middle of the FL Straits.

EDIT: And from the discussion:

4. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength as it moves
across portions of Cuba and approaches southern Florida this
weekend. While it is too soon to determine the exact timing,
magnitude, and location of possible impacts from wind and rainfall,
interests in Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys should
monitor the progress of Eta through the week.

[CrazyC83]

IMO, 120 kt is reasonable for the landfall intensity. I'd have lowered it if not for the fact that the eye has reappeared and it appears the ERC is over.

Regardless, the BIG threat is rainfall. Think of this as like Harvey over a mountainous region.

[wxman57]

Advisory package being rolled out. Day 5 point now right in the middle of the FL Straits.

Very close to my 5-day track point (within 20 miles), slower than the GFS but a little faster than the Euro. I just hope this is long gone by Thanksgiving...

[Evil Jeremy]

Advisory package being rolled out. Day 5 point now right in the middle of the FL Straits.

Very close to my 5-day track point (within 20 miles), slower than the GFS but a little faster than the Euro. I just hope this is long gone by Thanksgiving...

What's your guess re; intensity?

[wxman57]

Advisory package being rolled out. Day 5 point now right in the middle of the FL Straits.

Very close to my 5-day track point (within 20 miles), slower than the GFS but a little faster than the Euro. I just hope this is long gone by Thanksgiving...

What's your guess re; intensity?

Very, very uncertain. Don't know what will be left of Eta in the western Caribbean Saturday or how quickly it may recover. May not even be a TS crossing Cuba. I have 40 kts, they have 45 kts. Building ridge over eastern U.S. Monday should turn Eta NW beyond NHC's last track point.

[Hurricane Jed]

Another 2-3 days and SFL might be in the cone.

Um, no.

Check the latest 12z guidance to find your answer.

Florida in the cone

[SFLcane]

Another 2-3 days and SFL might be in the cone.

Um, no.

Check the latest 12z guidance to find your answer.

Florida in the cone

A double

[Iceresistance]

Eta has offically made landfall south of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua

[underthwx]

Again, I want to express my deep concerns for those in harm's way in CA....and anyone in ETA's current, or future path....I will be a happy camper once ETA is gone for good....

[AutoPenalti]

FWIW, NHC has this intensifying back to a TS by 96hrs.

Although the 12z GFS and ECMWF
models are in general agreement on the overall forecast scenario,
there are large differences in how fast Eta accelerates
northeastward. The NHC track forecast is near the HFIP corrected
consensus model which lies between the faster GFS and slower ECMWF
solutions. There is still significant spread among the various
global models and the ensembles, which results in a higher than
normal level of uncertainty regarding the details of the track and
intensity forecast later in the period.


4. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength as it moves
across portions of Cuba and approaches southern Florida this
weekend. While it is too soon to determine the exact timing,
magnitude, and location of possible impacts from wind and rainfall,
interests in Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys should
monitor the progress of Eta through the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 13.8N 83.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 13.8N 84.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
24H 04/1800Z 14.1N 85.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/0600Z 14.7N 87.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1800Z 15.4N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/0600Z 16.3N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1800Z 17.0N 87.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 07/1800Z 20.0N 83.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 24.0N 80.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

[Blown Away]

King may be the best analog for Eta. VortexFl posted links.

[ClarCari]

So unless it gets trapped, there is a chance that “something” tropical will be over higher OHC in the WCar than what was in the CCar. If it does get trapped or not picked as fast as currently forecasted than it could take longer.

I’d really pay attention to the future atmospheric trends in the next few days.
If even a low-pressure survives, it has a head start compared to say a tropical wave trying to organize. The atmosphere that was supposed to suppress activity in the gulf hasn’t been as effective lately as we could tell.

[underthwx]

IMO, 120 kt is reasonable for the landfall intensity. I'd have lowered it if not for the fact that the eye has reappeared and it appears the ERC is over.

Regardless, the BIG threat is rainfall. Think of this as like Harvey over a mountainous region.

My thoughts as well...I will never forget Harvey, along with many others like my family and I.....

[edu2703]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1323737070553235458

[underthwx]

ETA's slow movement, as terrible as it is, also affords those in the cone, ample time for preparations, and planning...

[Blown Away]

https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1323737070553235458

Some good news they didn't get the Cat 5 monster we thought would happen... The rain, ugh...

[TheStormExpert]

Um, no.

Check the latest 12z guidance to find your answer.

Florida in the cone

A double

We all know being in the cone at 4-5 days is the best spot to be in the cone, hopefully this changes like most other cases.

[TheStormExpert]

https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1323737070553235458

Some good news they didn't get the Cat 5 monster we thought would happen... The rain, ugh...

Instead they got a Cat.4 monster.