ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wx98]

If Laura manages to keep its center offshore of Cuba(more likely to the south), it could start to ramp up before entering the Gulf.

This is an interesting issue. At the current time the “center” of note is making landfall on DR. On its projected path, Laura could now realistically pass straight through eastern Cuba and off the northern coast, reform further north off Haiti and miss Cuba altogether, or continue more westerly south of Cuba and then cross western Cuba into the Gulf. I think the first 2 options are more likely, as the ridge would need to build in very strong to force it to stay that far south. Those are just my thoughts.

[Ivanhater]

I removed a bunch of nonsense in here again. No one and I mean NO ONE wants to come in here and read through petty bickering.

The discussions have been great overall today. Keep it that way.

[toad strangler]

https://i.imgur.com/rBL8ZYQ.png

It's mind blowing at how far west this cone has traveled since wednesday or Thursday. Laura will NOT be a storm that helps shrink the cone going forward!

[Ken711]

Peak winds increased to 90 mph by the NHC.

And that was inland.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 18.3N 69.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 19.3N 72.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 24/0000Z 20.6N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1200Z 22.1N 79.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 25/0000Z 23.4N 83.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 25/1200Z 24.7N 85.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 26.2N 88.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 29.8N 91.2W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
120H 28/0000Z 34.7N 89.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

[rigbyrigz]

If Laura manages to keep its center offshore of Cuba(more likely to the south), it could start to ramp up before entering the Gulf.

This is an interesting issue. At the current time the “center” of note is making landfall on DR. On its projected path, Laura could now realistically pass straight through eastern Cuba and off the northern coast, reform further north off Haiti and miss Cuba altogether, or continue more westerly south of Cuba and then cross western Cuba into the Gulf. I think the first 2 options are more likely, as the ridge would need to build in very strong to force it to stay that far south. Those are just my thoughts.

If this stretched elongated center with presumably a separated LLC and MLC and maybe other vortices holds (and why couldn't it?), it might even traverse Cuba in such form, and be a ragtag mess as it enters the GOM. But then...

[BobHarlem]

this recent Ascat pass implies the center is over Hispaniola now

[CrazyC83]

Thinking about possible warning and dual-threat scenarios, they will likely need a Hurricane Watch for Laura on the Louisiana coast while Marco is still ongoing. It creates a real communication challenge.

[eastcoastFL]

00z icon crosses Cuba about halfway than dips back into the water before crossing the western tip and entering the gulf.

[stormlover2013]

00z icon crosses Cuba about halfway than dips back into the water before crossing the western tip and entering the gulf.

If it takes that route then we will see west shift

[ElectricStorm]

Thinking about possible warning and dual-threat scenarios, they will likely need a Hurricane Watch for Laura on the Louisiana coast while Marco is still ongoing. It creates a real communication challenge.

I know it's still several days out but this has the potential to be a really bad situation for Louisiana. First a possible strong TS/Cat 1 hit from Marco followed possibly by Laura a couple days later. And Laura could have potential to become quite strong...

[eastcoastFL]

this recent Ascat pass implies the center is over Hispaniola now

https://i.imgur.com/aFAh9jI.jpg

Is ASCAT only able to pick up wind speed on the sea and not inland? I know it has something to do with the waves or condition of the sea but I never knew if it’s able to read land wind speeds?

[catskillfire51]

this is NHC's updated position for the center

[cheezyWXguy]

https://i.imgur.com/PJTyB4K.jpg

this is NHC's updated position for the center

Such a strange looking storm, but I guess that’s what a 50mph broad low looks like.

[ConvergenceZone]

I noticed they are predicting this to get to 90 mph now.......I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up with a Cat 2 hurricane out of this when all is said and done. I know that it would have to intensify quickly, but I don't think a Cat 2 is off the table at this point....

[eastcoastFL]

Looking at how the models are bombing out this storm in the gulf it could be wild when we get into late sept and early to mid October when things just start popping up in the western carrib like Wilma and Michael and heading for the gulf.

[AxaltaRacing24]

I noticed they are predicting this to get to 90 mph now.......I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up with a Cat 2 hurricane out of this when all is said and done. I know that it would have to intensify quickly, but I don't think a Cat 2 is off the table at this point....

cat 3-4 isn't off the table either...

[Nederlander]

I noticed they are predicting this to get to 90 mph now.......I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up with a Cat 2 hurricane out of this when all is said and done. I know that it would have to intensify quickly, but I don't think a Cat 2 is off the table at this point....

I think that’s likely the low end

[Blinhart]

I noticed they are predicting this to get to 90 mph now.......I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up with a Cat 2 hurricane out of this when all is said and done. I know that it would have to intensify quickly, but I don't think a Cat 2 is off the table at this point....

I think that’s likely the low end

That is exactly what I was thinking, high end is Cat 5.

[eastcoastFL]

With the center being over land it’s still firing off some seriously deep convection to the south and east. I don’t think Hispaniola is going to do much to inhibit Laura at all. I am glad she’s moving at a decent speed because they don’t need the massive floods and mudslides that even a weak TS can bring to Haiti and DR.

[Steve]

Thinking about possible warning and dual-threat scenarios, they will likely need a Hurricane Watch for Laura on the Louisiana coast while Marco is still ongoing. It creates a real communication challenge.

I know it's still several days out but this has the potential to be a really bad situation for Louisiana. First a possible strong TS/Cat 1 hit from Marco followed possibly by Laura a couple days later. And Laura could have potential to become quite strong...

Thanks Dude. It's all a big dilemma. And I'm not really sure what I'm going to do. I'm not particularly worried about Marco. Usually a TS coming through is something I enjoy experiencing. Secure the loose objects, get the cars to higher ground and sit back and chill. But with the ambiguities for Laura with track and strength, I'm not sure what the move is mid-week. We'd be out of time to evacuate because you theoretically aren't going to evacuate during a tropical storm, and it takes 48-72 hours to get people out of New Orleans. I guess I'd ride it out at that point not having a lot of other options because of time. We have most of what we need to get through a week, and even if the whole city flooded again, I could get my truck from downtown at some point and have a way to get out later.

We don't even really know what we'd be dealing with if we do get hit (or close) by Laura. Some of the runs into the 940's, 930's and even 920's are terrifying. I'd love to ride those out in a bunker or something. But living in a flood prone city with fragile protective infrastructure will make you think twice.

As dumb as it may sound for now, I have no real plan of action. It's just wait and see. I'll talk with all the family tomorrow and see where everyone's heads are at and maybe try to craft some options based on work schedules and such if we do need to get out. All we can talk is in concepts though because again, we don't even know what we might be facing or if it's something handleable.