ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro also has Eta's center north of Cuba by Sunday afternoon. Very weak and disorganized, though. Could well be moving into south Florida early next week as a weak TS, mostly a rainfall threat. I'm betting that the NHC keeps the 117 hr point still south of Cuba in their next advisory.

P.S. Euro has TS into the central FL Keys Monday morning - moving westward from there. Maybe 45 kts. In the SE Gulf west of Key West Monday evening.

Yep nothing South Florida couldn’t handle. We may have higher winds from the front we are seeing now than what this storm could bring. The 933MB CAT 5 the Euro was showing just yesterday appears long gone.

[NDG]

The images that will be coming out of Puerto Cabezas will be catastrophic, how unlucky that little town in the middle of an unpopulated part of the coast to get directly hit by such a tiny core.

[SFLcane]

12Z Euro also has Eta's center north of Cuba by Sunday afternoon. Very weak and disorganized, though. Could well be moving into south Florida early next week as a weak TS, mostly a rainfall threat. I'm betting that the NHC keeps the 117 hr point still south of Cuba in their next advisory.

P.S. Euro has TS into the central FL Keys Monday morning - moving westward from there. Maybe 45 kts. In the SE Gulf west of Key West Monday evening.

Except euro had 0 knowledge eta was moving into CA as almost a Cat 5. Completely missed. Gfs also.

Nothing short of atrocious this season.

[Weatherboy1]

12Z Euro also has Eta's center north of Cuba by Sunday afternoon. Very weak and disorganized, though. Could well be moving into south Florida early next week as a weak TS, mostly a rainfall threat. I'm betting that the NHC keeps the 117 hr point still south of Cuba in their next advisory.

P.S. Euro has TS into the central FL Keys Monday morning - moving westward from there. Maybe 45 kts. In the SE Gulf west of Key West Monday evening.

Except euro had 0 knowledge eta was moving into CA as almost a Cat 5. Completely missed. Gfs also.

Nothing short of atrocious this season.

I certainly don't foresee any kind of powerful "Reborn Eta" here in South Florida, based on time of year, synoptic setup, model output, etc. More like TS/hybrid system ... or at worst, low-end Cat 1. One thing that would make me change my tune is if this thing really starts heading more to the WNW or NW in the next 24-36 hours vs. traversing more of Central America on a due west heading. Hard to tell if WNW motion of last few hours is just a wobble or something more. But that's what I'll be paying the most attention to.

[aspen]

Eyewall is crawling onshore at a snail’s pace.

[underthwx]

Looks like ETA is right on the NHC track?

[GCANE]

Eye coming back on IR.
Still offshore.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/RyanRickert4/status/1323670294016512000

[underthwx]

Eye coming back on IR.
Still offshore.

https://i.imgur.com/a3bk4VA.gif

Is ETA stationary?...NHC has its motion W @ 3 mph....but it looks like it's not moving on IR loop

[wxman57]

Will be interesting to see how the NHC handles the major model shift next hour. I have the center nearing south Florida in 120 hrs and just south of Apalachicola Tuesday afternoon. Hated to make such a large change, but I can't keep it contained in the NW Caribbean any longer past day 4. I'm thinking maybe the NHC puts it over Cuba Sunday afternoon for their first adjustment. Maybe 40 kts there.

[aspen]

Eye coming back on IR.
Still offshore.

https://i.imgur.com/a3bk4VA.gif

Is ETA stationary?...NHC has its motion W @ 3 mph....but it looks like it's not moving on IR loop

Looks like a very slow W crawl to me.

[AutoPenalti]

Upwelling might be an issue if it still remains offshore.

[Sciencerocks]

https://twitter.com/RyanRickert4/status/1323670294016512000

I fully expect the nhc to raise the max intensity in post season to 150-155 knots. This thing was a monster!

[Canelaw99]

Homestead Air Reserve Base obviously planning for a potential something this weekend. They posted this on their Facebook page 2 hours ago:

Homestead Air Reserve Base is presently in HURCON 5 as a result of a National Hurricane Center forecast.
This weather event is in relation to Hurricane ETA.

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/darin_deveauWX/status/1323712467747377152

[Deshaunrob17]

https://twitter.com/YucAlMomento/status/1323716582242091009

This video is is from the Phillipines .. I remember seeing it

[us89]

https://twitter.com/RyanRickert4/status/1323670294016512000

I fully expect the nhc to raise the max intensity in post season to 150-155 knots. This thing was a monster!

I don't. I certainly will not be surprised to see a post-season upgrade to category 5, but the data just doesn't support anything above 140-145 kt.

[NDG]

https://twitter.com/YucAlMomento/status/1323716582242091009

This video is is from the Phillipines .. I remember seeing it

Thanks, I removed it.

[SconnieCane]

Eye is finally starting to move onshore. Is Puerto Cabezas in the northern eyewall (which would be the RFQ on a westward-moving storm)?

[Deshaunrob17]

I predicted 170-210 Ace but since late September I thought my Ace would.bust. However, it could actually hit 170 by the time we're completely done with eta next week.

Also, I remember posting a status in September about November surprises in the Caribbean during La Niña years- Paloma (2008), Tomas(2010), Thanksgiving giving hurricane of 2016..Given the La Nina conditions, I'm not too surprised about Eta