ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[captainbarbossa19]

I have yet to see any definitive proof of a center reformation south of Hispaniola. You guys are going to drive yourselves crazy trying to pick out a center tonight while it traverses Hispaniola. It's still a large low pressure area with more than one vortex rotating around the larger area of low pressure.

Recon found the llc south of DR

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA3-0613A-LAURA.png

Winds are also out of the east and southeast on the coast further confirming the circulation is over water to the south.

Well Laura, you sure are full of surprises. This could very well make landfall now close to where the 1900 Galveston Hurricane made landfall in the DR. It hit Baní.

[wx98]

I have yet to see any definitive proof of a center reformation south of Hispaniola. You guys are going to drive yourselves crazy trying to pick out a center tonight while it traverses Hispaniola. It's still a large low pressure area with more than one vortex rotating around the larger area of low pressure.

Recon found the llc south of DR

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA3-0613A-LAURA.png

The NHC also has the center south of DR.

[eastcoastFL]

I have yet to see any definitive proof of a center reformation south of Hispaniola. You guys are going to drive yourselves crazy trying to pick out a center tonight while it traverses Hispaniola. It's still a large low pressure area with more than one vortex rotating around the larger area of low pressure.

Recon found the llc south of DR

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA3-0613A-LAURA.png

I see what they found, but a cyclonic turn in the winds doesn't mean it's not just another Vort rotating around a common center. If you look at the rest of the data, the lowest pressures found by recon were north of Hispaniola, not south.

I noticed that. But they didn’t seem to find an llc anywhere else and the strongest wind has been pretty far north the whole time. Someone else said that there may have been another center up north that got crushed and a new one developed to the center. We’ll have to see what the nhc says at 11.

[eastcoastFL]

I have yet to see any definitive proof of a center reformation south of Hispaniola. You guys are going to drive yourselves crazy trying to pick out a center tonight while it traverses Hispaniola. It's still a large low pressure area with more than one vortex rotating around the larger area of low pressure.

Recon found the llc south of DR

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA3-0613A-LAURA.png

The NHC also has the center south of DR.

Yup and the one recon found is just west of the 8pm nhc position so I think that’s probably it

[MississippiWx]

I have yet to see any definitive proof of a center reformation south of Hispaniola. You guys are going to drive yourselves crazy trying to pick out a center tonight while it traverses Hispaniola. It's still a large low pressure area with more than one vortex rotating around the larger area of low pressure.

Recon found the llc south of DR

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA3-0613A-LAURA.png

The NHC also has the center south of DR.

Not at the location that recon found an eddy, however. The center of the broad low is likely directly over Hispaniola now, or straddling the Southern coastline.

[supercane4867]

HWRF nailed the convective pattern again.

[wx98]

11:00 PM AST Sat Aug 22
Location: 18.3°N 69.6°W
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 1003 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

[rigbyrigz]

Eric Webb points out 20 knots of MID-level shear affecting the vortex showing up South of DR on recon, so maybe Jamaica mistake to call it the new LLC rather than just one of a few nascent vortices spinning about?

[SoupBone]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1297355175749984257

[MississippiWx]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1297355175749984257?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

This.

[BobHarlem]

Eric Webb points out 20 knots of MID-level shear affecting the vortex showing up South of DR on recon, so maybe Jamaica mistake to call it the new LLC rather than just one of a few nascent vortices spinning about?

11PM Position is basically on the southern coast of DR, near Boca Chica.

[SoupBone]

[wx98]

Recon found the llc south of DR

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA3-0613A-LAURA.png

The NHC also has the center south of DR.

Not at the location that recon found an eddy, however. The center of the broad low is likely directly over Hispaniola now, or straddling the Southern coastline.

The advisory location is almost the same place that recon found the center...

[supercane4867]

https://i.imgur.com/rBL8ZYQ.png

Western edge of the cone reminds me of Lili

[eastcoastFL]

HWRF nailed the convective pattern again.

https://i.imgur.com/PD3Pb6y.png

https://i.imgur.com/z6am4mC.jpg

I find that incredible. I wish I understood how it’s able to do this.

[eastcoastFL]

The NHC also has the center south of DR.

Not at the location that recon found an eddy, however. The center of the broad low is likely directly over Hispaniola now, or straddling the Southern coastline.

The advisory location is almost the same place that recon found the center...

It’s about a half a degree north just south of the coast. Nhc puts it at 18.3n

[supercane4867]

If Laura manages to keep its center offshore of Cuba(more likely to the south), it could start to ramp up before entering the Gulf.

[Highteeld]

Peak winds increased to 90 mph by the NHC.

[MississippiWx]

The NHC also has the center south of DR.

Not at the location that recon found an eddy, however. The center of the broad low is likely directly over Hispaniola now, or straddling the Southern coastline.

The advisory location is almost the same place that recon found the center...

You have a much more liberal definition of a center fix than I do. I see no center on this recon mission.

[ColdMiser123]

Not at the location that recon found an eddy, however. The center of the broad low is likely directly over Hispaniola now, or straddling the Southern coastline.

The advisory location is almost the same place that recon found the center...

You have a much more liberal definition of a center fix than I do. I see no center on this recon mission.

https://i.imgur.com/n6eczJS.png

Yeah, recon found a broad low level low structure associated with the wave envelope, and no sharp wind shift. It's that same broad structure that will likely play into Laura's favor in maintaining intensity while crossing the islands over the next 1-2 days.