ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sailingtime]

Latest GFS model run shows Eta meandering all over the Caribbean before making a Florida Panhandle landfall on November 17th.

I see a landfall in S FL on November 8th...

I sure hope we won't be watching our turkeys cookin with one eye...and watching ETA with the other eye...I read somewhere that ETA may not resolve until the 11th, or thereabouts...

Should be long gone by the time the Turkey is cooking.

[underthwx]

I see a landfall in S FL on November 8th...

I sure hope we won't be watching our turkeys cookin with one eye...and watching ETA with the other eye...I read somewhere that ETA may not resolve until the 11th, or thereabouts...

Should be long gone by the time the Turkey is cooking.

Lol....let's hope so!

[Iceresistance]

Latest GFS model run shows Eta meandering all over the Caribbean before making a Florida Panhandle landfall on November 17th.

I see a landfall in S FL on November 8th...

The latest run I talked about was the 6 AM run, the noon run shows a South Florida landfall then a panhandle Florida landfall, this system is going to be very hard to forecast. . .

[underthwx]

Looks as if ETA is very, very close to landfall....

[Iceresistance]

Eta 2020 looks very similar to Beta 2005.

[aspen]

Eta certainly is taking its sweet time to make landfall.

[gatorcane]

Eta certainly is taking its sweet time to make landfall.

Boy is it ever. Really crawling to the coast, taking longer than expected for sure

[galaxy401]

Maybe it's because of the EWRC but Eta seems to be moving WNW now. Not seeing much of a south wobble anymore.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I was just about to post the exact same comment , maybe a wobble but does appear to be moving WNW to me.

[Jr0d]

Not sure how this current 'stall' over water will effect the long term track.

If Eta does not go as far inland as projected, we will likely have a much stronger system re-emerging later in the week.

Now most of the models are in good agreement the circulation will be heavily disrupted and the system that emerges will struggle and have a lopsided sub-tropical look....now it is looking like there is a chance Eta will not go as far inland, meaning it may not be broken up by the CA mountains.

Regardless, this is going to be a busy week for us.

Hopefully those in Nicaragua and Honduras have heeded the warnings and taken shelter for the high winds, surge, flooding and landslides.

Even if Eta surprises and a much stronger storm impacts Florida, that will pale in comparison to the destruction happening now in Central America.

[LarryWx]

Not sure how this current 'stall' will effect the long term track.

If Eta does not go as far inland as projected, we will likely have a much stronger system re-emerging later in the week.

Now most of the models are in good agreement the circulation will be heavily disrupted and the system that emerges will struggle and have a lopsided sub-tropical look....now it is looking like there is a chance Eta will not go as far inland, meaning it may not be broken up by the CA mountains.

Regardless, this is going to be a busy week for us.

Hopefully those in Nicaragua and Honduras have heeded the warnings and taken shelter for the high winds, surge, flooding and landslides.

Even if Eta surprises and a much stronger storm impacts Florida, that will pale in comparison to the destruction happening now in Central America.

The current "stall"/slowdown has been fully forecasted by model consensus imo.

[Jr0d]

The current "stall"/slowdown has been fully forecasted by model consensus imo.

I am well aware of this, however the center also over land by now with the model consensus.

Still being over water is very significant.

[MJGarrison]

Not sure how this current 'stall' will effect the long term track.

If Eta does not go as far inland as projected, we will likely have a much stronger system re-emerging later in the week.

Now most of the models are in good agreement the circulation will be heavily disrupted and the system that emerges will struggle and have a lopsided sub-tropical look....now it is looking like there is a chance Eta will not go as far inland, meaning it may not be broken up by the CA mountains.

Regardless, this is going to be a busy week for us.

Hopefully those in Nicaragua and Honduras have heeded the warnings and taken shelter for the high winds, surge, flooding and landslides.

Even if Eta surprises and a much stronger storm impacts Florida, that will pale in comparison to the destruction happening now in Central America.

The current "stall"/slowdown has been fully forecasted by model consensus imo.

For what it’s worth the NHC forecast from this morning (4AM EST) said Eta would be inland at 1800 UTC, which is now.

Edit: source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2020/a ... .011.shtml?


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[AnnularCane]

It really does seem like some of them will go to any possible lengths to avoid landfall.

[otowntiger]

Eta certainly is taking its sweet time to make landfall.

Boy is it ever. Really crawling to the coast, taking longer than expected for sure

https://i.postimg.cc/2SYT0yVR/goes16-vis-29-L-202011031445.gif

Yep not good for the poor folks in Nicaragua and Honduras. On another point if it continues crawling like this over the mountains it could totally dissipate before ever getting back over water.

[wxman57]

High pressure is building over the SE U.S. and northern Caribbean now. That should scoot Eta on inland and westward for the next 48 hours. The low-level circulation will likely dissipate over the mountains of Honduras on Thursday. What's left of Eta should emerge into the Gulf of Honduras by Friday evening, where it will likely slowly redevelop. It probably won't be as compact of a system by them, but a broad low that will take time to organize. Interesting that all the 12Z models so far, except the Euro (which isn't in that far yet) have Eta near or over south Florida by day 5 as a lower-end TS. I have a feeling we'll see a big shift in the consensus model that the NHC follows (for good reason) with the next update that should arrive by about 1:30pm CST. Will the NHC jump the 5-day point north of Cuba to south Florida in their next advisory? That would surprise me. I don't think they will, just based on the 12Z models. I wish I didn't have to issue a 7-day forecast this afternoon...

[AutoPenalti]

High pressure is building over the SE U.S. and northern Caribbean now. That should scoot Eta on inland and westward for the next 48 hours. The low-level circulation will likely dissipate over the mountains of Honduras on Thursday. What's left of Eta should emerge into the Gulf of Honduras by Friday evening, where it will likely slowly redevelop. It probably won't be as compact of a system by them, but a broad low that will take time to organize. Interesting that all the 12Z models so far, except the Euro (which isn't in that far yet) have Eta near or over south Florida by day 5 as a lower-end TS. I have a feeling we'll see a big shift in the consensus model that the NHC follows (for good reason) with the next update that should arrive by about 1:30pm CST. Will the NHC jump the 5-day point north of Cuba to south Florida in their next advisory? That would surprise me. I don't think they will, just based on the 12Z models. I wish I didn't have to issue a 7-day forecast this afternoon...

How about just issuing isolated showers and windy conditions for those days

[LarryWx]

The current "stall"/slowdown has been fully forecasted by model consensus imo.

I am well aware of this, however the center also over land by now with the model consensus.

Still being over water is very significant.

I'm not sure about the exact timing, but I saw most models having this stall just offshore for a good while before finally moving inland. So, what's it doing is no surprise to me even though it may be delayed a few hours.

[wxman57]

12Z Euro also has Eta's center north of Cuba by Sunday afternoon. Very weak and disorganized, though. Could well be moving into south Florida early next week as a weak TS, mostly a rainfall threat. I'm betting that the NHC keeps the 117 hr point still south of Cuba in their next advisory.

P.S. Euro has TS into the central FL Keys Monday morning - moving westward from there. Maybe 45 kts. In the SE Gulf west of Key West Monday evening.

[CrazyC83]

It looks very likely that Eta will be the worst storm of the season. There's already serious problems in Central America and it's just getting started.