ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[kevin]

This is coming together way faster than I expected. Not good news.

[edu2703]

 https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1313079057794445312

[edu2703]

And we have Tropical Storm Delta

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1313081514444288000

[Aric Dunn]

I go to sleep at it is looking ok... and wake up this ..

maybe recon should just skip Gamma and go to what is clearly nearing hurricane strength Delta.. lol

[aspen]

A forming eye on microwave and a southward shift in the track that misses Cuba...these are some very worrying developments, even though the 06z HWRF is even more bearish than wxman.

When is recon scheduled to investigate Delta?

[kevin]

A forming eye on microwave and a southward shift in the track that misses Cuba...these are some very worrying developments, even though the 06z HWRF is even more bearish than wxman.

Indeed, the latest 06z run doesn't really do a lot with Delta until +24 hours. At 18 hours (~12 hours from now) it's still only a 1003 mbar, 36 kt storm. Considering the development so far I personally think it'll be quite a bit stronger than that in about 12 hours. But independent of what I think, that can be a good gauge to check whether Delta is becoming stronger than the 06z HWRF or not.

[Aric Dunn]

The more curious thing to note is the lack of any SW movement by Gamma. its almost looks to be drifting south.

the farther east Gamma stays the farther east/ sharper the nw/nnw turn Delta will make.

if gamma moves over land the circ will die faster and delta will be free of much of any binary interaction. which would then intern free it to turn sooner to the NE.


watch a gamma very closely.

[tolakram]

The more curious thing to note is the lack of any SW movement by Gamma. its almost looks to be drifting south.

the farther east Gamma stays the farther east/ sharper the nw/nnw turn Delta will make.

if gamma moves over land the circ will die faster and delta will be free of much of any binary interaction. which would then intern free it to turn sooner to the NE.


watch a gamma very closely.

I wonder if the HWRF is seeing more interaction with Gamma in the short term. Gamma has been in the wrong place for over a day now and the models still insist it should be moving SW.

[Aric Dunn]

The more curious thing to note is the lack of any SW movement by Gamma. its almost looks to be drifting south.

the farther east Gamma stays the farther east/ sharper the nw/nnw turn Delta will make.

if gamma moves over land the circ will die faster and delta will be free of much of any binary interaction. which would then intern free it to turn sooner to the NE.


watch a gamma very closely.

I wonder if the HWRF is seeing more interaction with Gamma in the short term. Gamma has been in the wrong place for over a day now and the models still insist it should be moving SW.

Well the HWRF was the only model that showed yesterdays NE jog that gamma did. So I would definately take note of whatever the HWRF is showing inside 48 hours.

If Gamma does not move SW then expect some significant east shifts early in the period.

late track motion will depend on how much of Gamma remains.


For instance if Gamma does not move SW and just drifts south back over land.. Delta will be forced to turn NNW east of any of the current models and likely cross over western cuba.

[GeneratorPower]

With Gamma’s LLC not moving, and even Delta center relocations and overall slower movement...makes me think maybe steering currents are just weaker than anticipated. Could change a lot down the road.

[NDG]

What a waste to send out the recon to Gamma after been decoupled instead of out to TS Delta, so that the models have a better handle on it right away.

[GeneratorPower]

What a waste to send out the recon to Gamma after been decoupled instead of out to TS Delta, so that the models have a better handle on it right away.

Not a waste. Finding out where Gamma’s LLC is exactly and other measurements will help the forecast quite a bit. Gamma’s location and movement is key to Delta.

[NDG]

With Gamma’s LLC not moving, and even Delta center relocations and overall slower movement...makes me think maybe steering currents are just weaker than anticipated. Could change a lot down the road.

Not really, the models yesterday were showing Delta to move slowly during the past 24 hrs and over the next 18-24 hrs, not to pick up speed until tomorrow.

[NDG]

What a waste to send out the recon to Gamma after been decoupled instead of out to TS Delta, so that the models have a better handle on it right away.

Not a waste. Finding out where Gamma’s LLC is exactly and other measurements will help the forecast quite a bit. Gamma’s location and movement is key to Delta.

Gamma is now nothing but a low level circulation which will be eventually get caught in Delta's circulation, it will have not affect to Delta which will continue to grow in height.

[Do_For_Love]

Models seem very unified on this track into SE Louisiana. A little ironic given the name Delta! Reminds me of how they looked with Laura which ended up being right on the money, but we'll see. Seems like it's got potential to be a significant storm.

[cycloneye]

I go to sleep at it is looking ok... and wake up this ..

maybe recon should just skip Gamma and go to what is clearly nearing hurricane strength Delta.. lol

Will go this afternoon.

[Aric Dunn]

Here is how the day will probably go..

The 11am advisory - NHC bumps the winds up a little.
2pm - NHC bumps it up a little more.
Recon arrives finds Delta to be near or at Hurricane strength..


Have to watch out for these little whirlwinds..

[chaser1]

What a waste to send out the recon to Gamma after been decoupled instead of out to TS Delta, so that the models have a better handle on it right away.

Not a waste. Finding out where Gamma’s LLC is exactly and other measurements will help the forecast quite a bit. Gamma’s location and movement is key to Delta.

Gamma is now nothing but a low level circulation which will be eventually get caught in Delta's circulation, it will have not affect to Delta which will continue to grow in height.

Agreed. Of greater interest might be whether Gamma's mid level energy remains more or less "in place" or simply begins to jettison northward and shear out. Either way, no need for a left side window seat on this Delta flight; I suspect there will be quite little of any Gamma to influence Delta's track. If that in fact occurs then anticipate a more straight forward northwest to NNW track through the Yucatan Channel and potential one-way flight to Mobile. I suspect that Delta might reach a strong Cat 2 before even exiting the Caribbean.

[NDG]

06z GFS is handling Delta fairly well so far with its slow movement, it shows it not reaching the 80th longitude until close to midnight tonight.

[GCANE]

Hot Tower zipping east to west leaving gravity waves in the cirrus.