11W HAISHEN 200904 0600 22.2N 134.3E WPAC 135 915
WPAC: HAISHEN - Post-Tropical
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Cunxi Huang
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
Sorry, next.
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
Cunxi Huang wrote:Hayabusa wrote:11W HAISHEN 200904 0600 22.2N 134.3E WPAC 140 911
noice.
they downgraded
11W HAISHEN 200904 0600 22.2N 134.3E WPAC 135 915
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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doomhaMwx
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
HWRF predicts an EWRC to occur around 18Z / ~12hrs from now. It doesn't go smoothly on the model and Haishen maintains a double eyewall structure all the way to the Ryukyus. Not good if it verifies as such structure widens the area of destructive winds.
Perhaps those are the beginnings of an outer eyewall already showing up on the latest MW passes.
Perhaps those are the beginnings of an outer eyewall already showing up on the latest MW passes.
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
They better upgrade this to a Cat 5 for the next advisory. The eye is still intact and convection is cooling; that should be enough to push Dvorak estimates over the edge.
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NotoSans
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
Latest AMSU estimate is 928mb/132kt, but as I have mentioned in previous posts, the NOAA-19 instrument seems to have a low bias recently at higher intensities, so I'd like to wait for an additional non-NOAA-19 AMSU estimate to ascertain the peak intensity. But I'd say 140kt is justifiable.
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
If this was recon, 150 to 160 knots.
Truly a loss in meteorology.
Truly a loss in meteorology.
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
euro6208 wrote:If this was recon, 150 to 160 knots.
Truly a loss in meteorology.
150 kt at the most, IMO. This hasn’t achieved the incredible CDO and cloud top temp symmetry of Dorian to justify 160 kt, but the eye is nearly as warm.
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1900hurricane
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
This is its chance. I'd probably go 140 kt for 12Z.
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
Pathetic.
140 knots seems to be the benchmark after rapidly intensifying.
We seen this many times.
Atlantic...Recon?
Think about it.
140 knots seems to be the benchmark after rapidly intensifying.
We seen this many times.
Atlantic...Recon?
Think about it.
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
Easily 150 knots. minimum...
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
No doubt a Cat 5. Recon would probably find 140-150 kt. However, while Haishen has joined the league of extremely intense "Ha"-named WPac typhoons, it's not nearly at the same level as Haiyan, Hagupit, Hagibis, or Halong. This is more of your run-of-the-mill low end WPac Cat 5, similar to Haima.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
898 mb on 06Z run 
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
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SconnieCane
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
Looks like it's going to go through the Ryukyus and then plow into one of the Koreas. Might not recurve as far east, nor as intact as thought a few days ago. Has implications for the evolution of the steering pattern for Atlantic hurricanes.
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
Here's one of the latest Dvorak images of Haishen:
Now, for comparison, here are the other Ha Typhoons with their official JTWC intensities, as well as my own intensity estimates.
Haiyan (170 kt official, 170-180 kt estimate)
Hagupit (155 kt official, 160-165 kt estimate)
Haima (145 kt official, 145-150 kt estimate)
Hagibis (peak 1: 140 kt official, 170-180 kt estimate)
Hagibis (peak 2: 140 kt official, 140-145 kt estimate)
Halong (155 kt official, 165 kt estimate based on ADT)
I think it's safe to say Haishen is around 140-145 kt. It's current satellite presentation is most comparable to Hagibis' second peak, although with a smaller eye and a less perfectly donut-shaped CDO. Its current presentation reminds me a lot of Lorenzo.
Now, for comparison, here are the other Ha Typhoons with their official JTWC intensities, as well as my own intensity estimates.
Haiyan (170 kt official, 170-180 kt estimate)
Hagupit (155 kt official, 160-165 kt estimate)
Haima (145 kt official, 145-150 kt estimate)
Hagibis (peak 1: 140 kt official, 170-180 kt estimate)
Hagibis (peak 2: 140 kt official, 140-145 kt estimate)
Halong (155 kt official, 165 kt estimate based on ADT)
I think it's safe to say Haishen is around 140-145 kt. It's current satellite presentation is most comparable to Hagibis' second peak, although with a smaller eye and a less perfectly donut-shaped CDO. Its current presentation reminds me a lot of Lorenzo.
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dexterlabio
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
aspen wrote:No doubt a Cat 5. Recon would probably find 140-150 kt. However, while Haishen has joined the league of extremely intense "Ha"-named WPac typhoons, it's not nearly at the same level as Haiyan, Hagupit, Hagibis, or Halong. This is more of your run-of-the-mill low end WPac Cat 5, similar to Haima.
https://i.imgur.com/a8khtrW.png
No disrespect to Haishen, but the Cat5's originating from the WPAC deep tropics (south of 20N and east of 130E) are a different league. Perhaps those typhoons had more potential and advantages from the get-go, given their initial position.
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NotoSans
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
We have Atlantic storms which run close to Dvorak (eg. Maria, Laura, Michael, etc.) and also some which are significantly higher (eg. Irma, Dorian, Matthew but its upgrade is strongly dependent on SFMR’s validity).
Simply throwing “Atlantic” doesn’t help. It just shows the intent to purposely overlook Atlantic storms which run close to Dvorak.
Simply throwing “Atlantic” doesn’t help. It just shows the intent to purposely overlook Atlantic storms which run close to Dvorak.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
11W HAISHEN 200904 1200 22.7N 133.5E WPAC 135 916
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
Hayabusa wrote::(11W HAISHEN 200904 1200 22.7N 133.5E WPAC 135 916
Screw it, I’m going with their original 140 kt/911 mbar estimate from the 06z best track.
How could they not upgrade it, and actually raise the pressure? Cloud tops are STILL cooling!
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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