BoB: AMPHAN - Post-Tropical

[Highteeld]

First vis shots this morning

[Yellow Evan]

[Chris90]

A secondary eyewall is trying to form around the tiny, tight inner one. Will an EWRC start to take hold within the next 12 hours, or will that bit of shear from the east delay it?
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020io01/amsusr89/2020io01_amsusr89_202005172307.gif

Shear can delay or disrupt formative eyewall cycles too, as we saw with Hurricane Michael.

130 kt seems reasonable, although I think the pressure is probably more like 935 mb.

Didn’t the same thing happen with Dorian? I thought I heard its EWRC was prevented by a bit of shear, allowing it to bomb out before landfall.

I know with Dorian I remember a pro-met theorizing on Twitter that they thought dry air to his north might be preventing outer rain bands from fully establishing themselves to get the ERC process kicked off.

[aspen]

Looking a little squished:

[shah83]

pretty firm ridge to the east, no?

[1900hurricane]

A secondary eyewall is trying to form around the tiny, tight inner one. Will an EWRC start to take hold within the next 12 hours, or will that bit of shear from the east delay it?
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020io01/amsusr89/2020io01_amsusr89_202005172307.gif

Shear can delay or disrupt formative eyewall cycles too, as we saw with Hurricane Michael.

130 kt seems reasonable, although I think the pressure is probably more like 935 mb.

Just because I'm curious, why do you think the pressure is considerably higher? I actually think I prefer the lower pressure in this case.

[CrazyC83]

A secondary eyewall is trying to form around the tiny, tight inner one. Will an EWRC start to take hold within the next 12 hours, or will that bit of shear from the east delay it?
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020io01/amsusr89/2020io01_amsusr89_202005172307.gif

Shear can delay or disrupt formative eyewall cycles too, as we saw with Hurricane Michael.

130 kt seems reasonable, although I think the pressure is probably more like 935 mb.

Just because I'm curious, why do you think the pressure is considerably higher? I actually think I prefer the lower pressure in this case.

I think the reason is because it's near a ridge and it's at a very low latitude.

[1900hurricane]

Overall shape actually reminds me of Hagupit '14 somewhat.

[Kingarabian]

Yeah I agree that this is leaning towards that monster that we know in Haiyan -- IF it ever warms that eye further. I see a lot of similarities simply with this insane amount of CDG. But this is just in terms of intense CDG. Definitely not as a graceful as Patricia though. I hope everyone on the Bengaly coast is preparing.

[1900hurricane]

Shear can delay or disrupt formative eyewall cycles too, as we saw with Hurricane Michael.

130 kt seems reasonable, although I think the pressure is probably more like 935 mb.

Just because I'm curious, why do you think the pressure is considerably higher? I actually think I prefer the lower pressure in this case.

I think the reason is because it's near a ridge and it's at a very low latitude.

At 13ºN, it is fairly low latitude (about that of Guam), but ridging in this case appears to be an upper level feature in the 200-400 mb layer. It doesn't even show up in 500 mb charts. Environmental pressures are also very low with the switching monsoon if model output is to be believed. I actually think JTWC's 919 mb pressure is a straight KZC rip.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1262208661184819201

[Kingarabian]

Overall shape actually reminds me of Hagupit '14 somewhat.

[Astromanía]

I really wonder how evacuation will take place with this currently pandemic, I'm afraid an huge cluster of cases will appear after this monster make landfall, so not only the devastation this Cyclone will produce by itself but now it's indirectly effects expanding the Coronavirus, a premonition what will happen in the Américas this hurricane season, a disaster

[Jr0d]

This is a very serious situation. Not only are the winds severe, this area is incredibly vulnerable to storm surge and the forecast takes it to densely populated areas with poor infrastructure....not to mention the pandemic.

This is a catastrophy unfolding. Worse than anythingbwe can imagine in the US from a hurricane.

[Highteeld]

Eye temp increasing

[CrazyC83]

This is a very serious situation. Not only are the winds severe, this area is incredibly vulnerable to storm surge and the forecast takes it to densely populated areas with poor infrastructure....not to mention the pandemic.

This is a catastrophy unfolding. Worse than anythingbwe can imagine in the US from a hurricane.

It's literally the worst case scenario in many ways - both from direct and indirect deaths - if it holds up like this. Emergency managers surely have their hands all tied right now. But the cyclone is a much bigger threat than the virus.

[Jr0d]

It's literally the worst case scenario in many ways - both from direct and indirect deaths - if it holds up like this. Emergency managers surely have their hands all tied right now. But the cyclone is a much bigger threat than the virus.

I know what past storms have done to that area. Hopefully the warning is out and people are moving to high, stable ground with a strong structure.

This may be the worse storm I have ever seen in terms of potential damage and fatalities.

[aspen]

I think the eye might be starting to cool a bit again.

[shah83]

The ICON 00z run is terrible--the storm *stalls* over the Himalayan foothills in Darjeeling and Assam and keep raining for a while.

[doomhaMwx]

IMD forecasts a supercyclonic storm within the next 12hrs (for those unfamiliar, that is the highest on the IMD TC scale).

TC ADVISORY
TCAC: NEW DELHI
DTG: 20200518/0000Z
TC: AMPHAN
NR: 09
PSN: N1312 E08618
MOV: N08KT
C: 950HPA
MAX WIND: 100KT
FCST PSN+06HR: 18/0600Z N1400 E08624
FCST MAX WIND +6HRS: 110 KT
FCST PSN+12HR: 18/1200Z N1436 E08630
FCST MAX WIND +12HRS: 120 KT
FCST PSN+18HR: 18/1800Z N1512 E08636
FCST MAX WIND +18HRS: 125 KT
FCST PSN+24HR: 19/0000Z N1554 E08648
FCST MAX WIND +24HRS: 120 KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20200518/0900Z
TOO: 180800HRS IST