ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

It may not have a LLC but it still has a vigorous MLC, this is crucial in terms of how fast it can re-intensify once it moves out of CA.

[TheStormExpert]

Another 2-3 days and SFL might be in the cone.

Um, no.

Check the latest 12z guidance to find your answer.

[Iceresistance]

Latest GFS model run shows Eta meandering all over the Caribbean before making a Florida Panhandle landfall on November 17th.

[Iceresistance]

Another 2-3 days and SFL might be in the cone.

Um, no.

Check the latest 12z guidance to find your answer.

I don't know, Eta is going to be very hard to forecast.

[SFLcane]

Another 2-3 days and SFL might be in the cone.

Um, no.

Check the latest 12z guidance to find your answer.

I know I know let’s disregard the entire euro and gefs ensemble suite right? They are outliers lol. Nhc does not shift track cause of one track model cycle. How about this let’s wait to see if anything is left north of CA.

A bit uneasy last couple of days to post something without being chewed on. Need a break

[Jr0d]

It may not have a LLC but it still has a vigorous MLC, this is crucial in terms of how fast it can re-intensify once it moves out of CA.

If Eta stays right of the forecast and re-emerges mostly intact, it will likely redevelop quickly and could be a significant hurricane.

The current forecast shows it going far enough inland for the circulation to be ripped apart by the mountains. This solution, a catastrophic event for CA, will maje it much less likely Eta will be able to strengthen significantly down the road.

We have seen the mountains do wierd things with storms though.

[aspen]

Imagine after all this — Eta likely being a Cat 5 but the NHC not upgrading it — the system redevelops in the NW Caribbean, gets stuck, and explodes into an operationally assessed Cat 5.

Not the most likely scenario, but the NWCar is still a powder keg even this late in the year.

[us89]

The TCR for this storm will be a fascinating read.

[Iceresistance]

Imagine after all this — Eta likely being a Cat 5 but the NHC not upgrading it — the system redevelops in the NW Caribbean, gets stuck, and explodes into an operationally assessed Cat 5.

Not the most likely scenario, but the NWCar is still a powder keg even this late in the year.

That would be insane. The next name is Theta.

[kevin]

Imagine after all this — Eta likely being a Cat 5 but the NHC not upgrading it — the system redevelops in the NW Caribbean, gets stuck, and explodes into an operationally assessed Cat 5.

Not the most likely scenario, but the NWCar is still a powder keg even this late in the year.

Like you said indeed a very unlikely scenario, but just out of curiosity has a hurricane ever reached cat 5 intensity on two different occasions with a landfall inbetween?

[edu2703]

Without knowing what will be left from Eta after spending days inland, we should take with a grain of salt everything what models shows on long range. NHC mentions there's a significant uncertainty in the long-range track and intensify forecast.

[underthwx]

About how far from landfall is ETA?....looks very close, but I can't tell for sure

[chris_fit]

Another 2-3 days and SFL might be in the cone.

Um, no.

Check the latest 12z guidance to find your answer.

Huh? Most 12Z guidance is not even completed yet?

[aspen]

Imagine after all this — Eta likely being a Cat 5 but the NHC not upgrading it — the system redevelops in the NW Caribbean, gets stuck, and explodes into an operationally assessed Cat 5.

Not the most likely scenario, but the NWCar is still a powder keg even this late in the year.

Like you said indeed a very unlikely scenario, but just out of curiosity has a hurricane ever reached cat 5 intensity on two different occasions with a landfall inbetween?

Irma did. It weakened to a high end Cat 4 before one of its landfalls (I think the Turks and Caicos), and then strengthened back to Cat 5 prior to striking Cuba.

[wxman57]

I'm measuring an eye diameter of 14-16 miles now. Inner small eye is dissipating. Center of eye is still 23 miles offshore.

[kevin]

Imagine after all this — Eta likely being a Cat 5 but the NHC not upgrading it — the system redevelops in the NW Caribbean, gets stuck, and explodes into an operationally assessed Cat 5.

Not the most likely scenario, but the NWCar is still a powder keg even this late in the year.

Like you said indeed a very unlikely scenario, but just out of curiosity has a hurricane ever reached cat 5 intensity on two different occasions with a landfall inbetween?

Irma did. It weakened to a high end Cat 4 before one of its landfalls (I think the Turks and Caicos), and then strengthened back to Cat 5 prior to striking Cuba.

Oh yes of course thanks, forgot about the fact that it briefly weakened to a high end cat 4. Last question so we don't go OT too much, but would you also happen to know of a case where the hurricane weakened to a TS/TD before regaining cat 5 similar to this theoretical worst-case scenario for Eta? Because I can't think of a historical example of that.

[Cat5James]

Another 2-3 days and SFL might be in the cone.

Um, no.

Check the latest 12z guidance to find your answer.

Maybe you should check the 12z ICON/ GFS... you always swear that storms can not even come near Florida

[underthwx]

I'm measuring an eye diameter of 14-16 miles now. Inner small eye is dissipating. Center of eye is still 23 miles offshore.

Wxman57, is ETA a bit south of the NHC track?....

[Cat5James]

Latest GFS model run shows Eta meandering all over the Caribbean before making a Florida Panhandle landfall on November 17th.

I see a landfall in S FL on November 8th...

[underthwx]

Latest GFS model run shows Eta meandering all over the Caribbean before making a Florida Panhandle landfall on November 17th.

I see a landfall in S FL on November 8th...

I sure hope we won't be watching our turkeys cookin with one eye...and watching ETA with the other eye...I read somewhere that ETA may not resolve until the 11th, or thereabouts...