ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Recon reports a pinhole eye.
Circular, closed 8nm wide

So that means the EWRC is over? In that case it might still have some time to strengthen if a landfall is delayed due to its slow movement.

Yes is over.

[wxman57]

Recon reports a pinhole eye.
Circular, closed 8nm wide

So that means the EWRC is over? In that case it might still have some time to strengthen if a landfall is delayed due to its slow movement.

No, the eyewall replacement cycle is ongoing. That inner eye is deteriorating. Pressure gradient in the core will relax as the pinhole eye disappears. Winds probably 110 kts now. Landfall will occur mid-ERC.

[Do_For_Love]

Significant weakening due to the ERC. Hurricanes often drop 1-2 categories during an ERC. No Cat 5 for Eta. Barely may be a Cat 3 now.

Well, that's good news for Nicaragua. We have had a lot of storms intensify right up to landfall this year so it's nice to see classic ERC followed by weakening into landfall pattern instead lol.

Of course, the main threat from this storm for most people down there has always been the rain. It's hitting a relatively rural area I believe and should weaken pretty fast on land, limiting the wind damage. However, it's gonna dump 2-3 feet of rain in places which is obviously going to cause major problems.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[SFLcane]

Recon reports a pinhole eye.
Circular, closed 8nm wide

So that means the EWRC is over? In that case it might still have some time to strengthen if a landfall is delayed due to its slow movement.

No, the eyewall replacement cycle is ongoing. That inner eye is deteriorating. Pressure gradient in the core will relax as the pinhole eye disappears. Winds probably 110 kts now. Landfall will occur mid-ERC.

Hey 57,

Any new thoughts on eta threatening Florida? Euro and GEFS ensembles are still active near the state.

[euro6208]

My peak intensity is 135 knots. Besides the RAW T's and CI which peaked at over 8.0 and over 7.0 and winds found during flight level of 155 knots, i don't think that is enough of an upgrade.

Cold tops were very cold yes but the eye temps wasn't even that extraordinaire. 10C?

Dvorak was only a 6.5. I think the NHC wants to see consistent data to upgrade not just one observation. ADT isn't the only metric to measure how strong a system is.

[Iceresistance]

Eta could explosively strengthen JUST before landfall, Charley 2004 did just that.

[chris_fit]

Eta could explosively strengthen JUST before landfall, Charley 2004 did just that.

Unlikely. Charley was not going through an Eyewall Replacement Cycle.

[GCANE]

Well south of forecast track.
A wobble or moving nearly direct south?

Still 8nm wide eye. High RH at 93%.

[GCANE]

I dont know.
IR indicates a pinhole. Recon reports a pinhole.
No double wind max on FL measurements.

[tolakram]

Derek Ortt suspects upwelling due to slow movement. I can't link to tweets from where I work.

[p1nheadlarry]

If Eta becomes a remnant low and dissipates over CA, and those remnants re-develop over the NW Caribbean, would it still be Eta or would it be named Theta?

Eta. If a low pressure separate from ex-Eta forms and develops, it would be Theta though this is looking less likely.

Then how did Ivan keep its name that time in 04

[Iceresistance]

If Eta becomes a remnant low and dissipates over CA, and those remnants re-develop over the NW Caribbean, would it still be Eta or would it be named Theta?

Eta. If a low pressure separate from ex-Eta forms and develops, it would be Theta though this is looking less likely.

Then how did Ivan keep its name that time in 04

Retained the circulation

[ElectricStorm]

My peak intensity is 135 knots. Besides the RAW T's and CI which peaked at over 8.0 and over 7.0 and winds found during flight level of 155 knots, i don't think that is enough of an upgrade.

Cold tops were very cold yes but the eye temps wasn't even that extraordinaire. 10C?

Dvorak was only a 6.5. I think the NHC wants to see consistent data to upgrade not just one observation. ADT isn't the only metric to measure how strong a system is.

ADT was 6.9

[euro6208]

My peak intensity is 135 knots. Besides the RAW T's and CI which peaked at over 8.0 and over 7.0 and winds found during flight level of 155 knots, i don't think that is enough of an upgrade.

Cold tops were very cold yes but the eye temps wasn't even that extraordinaire. 10C?

Dvorak was only a 6.5. I think the NHC wants to see consistent data to upgrade not just one observation. ADT isn't the only metric to measure how strong a system is.

ADT was 6.9

Remember ADT has different algorithm for the same storm in the eastern and western hemisphere so a storm crossing over from the CPAC to the WPAC will get a 0.5 reduction. A study was done on this.

So a 7.5 ADT system in the WPAC would actually be an 8.0 system in the Atlantic/EPAC. Patricia at 8.4 would likely be a 7.9 system in the WPAC. Truly a loss in meterology.

[wzrgirl1]

https://i.postimg.cc/fWxdyswL/61495583.gif
Intense lightning.

I never understand the lightning aspect. I was always told there was no lightning in warm core storms. I remember hearing there was lightning in Andrew because of the tornadoes that spun off of him. But can someone explain. Thanks.

[SFLcane]

Another 2-3 days and SFL might be in the cone.

[underthwx]

Another 2-3 days and SFL might be in the cone.

Unfortunately...I won't be surprised.... definitely needs to be watched carefully for some time to come...there are about as many unknowns as you can get with this cyclone...for now...my thoughts are with those in CA....

[SFLcane]

Another 2-3 days and SFL might be in the cone.

Unfortunately...I won't be surprised.... definitely needs to be watched carefully for some time to come

Intensity going to be very tricky.

[Jr0d]

Another 2-3 days and SFL might be in the cone.

Doubtful, Eta will likely be downgraded to a remnant low by Thursday. If it regenerates that wont be to Friday or later. Maybe Florida will be in the cone, if advisories are re-initiated by this weekend.

Eta will soon be ripped apart by the mountains of Central America. Unfortunately this also means Nicaragua and Hondorus will see an incredible amount of rain that will to widespread flooding and landslides.

[SFLcane]

Another 2-3 days and SFL might be in the cone.

Doubtful, Eta will likely be downgraded to a remnant low by Thursday. If it regenerates that wont be to Friday or later. Maybe Florida will be in the cone, if advisories are re-initiated by this weekend.

Eta will soon be ripped apart by the mountains of Central America. Unfortunately this also means Nicaragua and Hondorus will see an incredible amount of rain that will to widespread flooding and landslides.

I will side with nhc on regeneration in the nw Caribbean. Thx! As always intensity is a guessing game.

New low or eta is likely to develop.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1323634786095816704