ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blinhart]

That wind field recon is finding indicates that the center is actually SOUTH of the DR. Wow.

Are you sure? I had interpreted that as an eddy with the real center inland on the east DR. The winds near the more south shift were much, much weaker and do not correspond to any sort of pressure fall. I think they flew close but east of the center here:

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/744994799861366868/746889570812952727/recon_NOAA3-0613A-LAURA.png?width=509&height=564

I'm actually shocked they are flying in there right now with the majority of the storm over land, all they can do is do dropsondes at the edge of all the islands. A lot of data is not going to be seen, of course I could be wrong.

I know I have seen other systems actually get their act together over Hispaniola because of the Mountains, so Laura might do this, the question is will it be on the North or South side of the islands.

[Nimbus]

Lowest pressures recon found so far were 1003.3 mb along the north coast of the DR mostly above 1006 mb's with 50 knot winds in the Mona passage. See if they find anything below 1006 mb's south of the DR, some of that convection was from the circulation going over the mountains but if they find a southern vort with a pressure drop..

Have they tagged a center yet? Looks like the last recon flight into Marco found lower pressure then Laura but Laura seems to have higher winds. The highest wind I saw on Marco was 45kts last flight unless I missed something

I doubt they will find a sharp pressure drop indicating a LLC tonight.
The winds over the mountains have lifted convection and after the mountains the winds south of DR have been real light thus far. And just as I post the recon pressure drops to 1005.5 mb's probably marking a southern vort..

[Jr0d]

They found a LLC south of the Dominican Republic, maybe it will establish itself. It is looking less likely one will form on the north side of the island.

[hipshot]

So the nhc is putting the center on the SE tip of DR?



SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 68.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

Using my uncalibrated eyeballs, it looks more like the NE tip of DR.

[Keldeo1997]

So if that LLC reformation is for real then Gustav though not a Major in the Gulf, becomes a Analog

[eastcoastFL]

My fav local met Lauren Olesky posted this on Twitter regarding our current situation

[TJRE]

Loop

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

I will let the experts chime in ....my guess is the envelope for Laura keeps a LLC to the north???
or just too crude a tool to project that????

[SouthernBreeze]

Loop

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

I will let the experts chime in ....my guess is the envelope for Laura keeps a LLC to the north???
or just too crude a tool to project that????


https://imgur.com/9bD3eEv

I dunno, look where its sending Marco!

[SoupBone]

They found a LLC south of the Dominican Republic, maybe it will establish itself. It is looking less likely one will form on the north side of the island.

Hmmm, so the question is how far off from previous runs is this location versus where the models initiated?

[Kazmit]

If it doesn't gain much latitude, I wonder if it's possible for the center to thread through a valley which separates the northern and southern mountain ranges. This valley is easily visible on this map as an area of very low elevation which almost appears to cut the island in two. But then again, it may be too close to the mountains to make a difference.

[SouthernBreeze]

Sure is blowing up S of DR tonight

[TJRE]

Loop

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

I will let the experts chime in ....my guess is the envelope for Laura keeps a LLC to the north???
or just too crude a tool to project that????


https://imgur.com/9bD3eEv

I dunno, look where its sending Marco!

Understood.... SB
lets see who chimes in on this.....

[eastcoastFL]

Loop

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

I will let the experts chime in ....my guess is the envelope for Laura keeps a LLC to the north???
or just too crude a tool to project that????


https://imgur.com/9bD3eEv

Here’s a close up version. I see what you’re saying but I just can’t tell where the llc is for sure.

[CaribJam]

If this westward trend continues, there may be need for watches to go up for Jamaica...

What do you think?

[CaribJam]

If this westward trend continues, there may be need for watches to go up for Jamaica...

What do you think?

OR warning.

[eastcoastFL]

If it doesn't gain much latitude, I wonder if it's possible for the center to thread through a valley which separates the northern and southern mountain ranges. This valley is easily visible on this map as an area of very low elevation which almost appears to cut the island in two. But then again, it may be too close to the mountains to make a difference.

https://img.techpowerup.org/200823/pia12492-hires.jpg

I think the friction between the mountains would cause issues but Laura may be too disorganized to really be effected by this.

[Nederlander]

Loop

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

I will let the experts chime in ....my guess is the envelope for Laura keeps a LLC to the north???
or just too crude a tool to project that????


https://imgur.com/9bD3eEv

Not an expert, but that moisture should keep wrapping around. The dominant ll feature is south of DR over water

[SouthernBreeze]

If this westward trend continues, there may be need for watches to go up for Jamaica...

What do you think?

OR warning.

I did find it odd that NHC only issued warnings for northern half of Hispaniola - nothing for southern half

[eastcoastFL]

They found a LLC south of the Dominican Republic, maybe it will establish itself. It is looking less likely one will form on the north side of the island.

That’s quite a way south too

[wx98]

I think pulling out random storms with similar paths and calling them analogs isn’t really the smartest thing. Every storm is different. And all of those storms had different situations and paths. Unless the pattern is identical, a path will not follow the same way (or really close). Intensity will most certainly not be the same, so throwing up Cat 4s on here doesn’t mean this will be a Cat 4 in the same place, or even at all. Not to say for certain that Laura won’t be a Cat 4, but guidance at the current time is against that.