ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[shiny-pebble]

Honestly, I'd probably go something like 918/140 or 145kts. Winds were approaching that speed when they were leaving and the pressure was dropping too, and they had a hard time getting a direct center pass with the steep pressure gradient. This one deserves a post season upgrade.

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[NDG]

No surprise that recon finds it weaker because of its EWR.

RNT15 KNHC 031142
AF307 0629A ETA HDOB 24 20201103
113330 1403N 08247W 6974 03045 9936 +106 +106 105053 054 043 007 00
113400 1401N 08248W 6969 03044 9936 +105 +105 100056 057 045 009 00
113430 1400N 08249W 6973 03029 9933 +102 +102 099058 059 048 012 03
113500 1358N 08251W 6954 03047 9927 +104 +104 100065 066 050 013 03
113530 1357N 08252W 6963 03018 9908 +106 +106 105070 072 057 029 00
113600 1355N 08253W 6972 02993 9892 +110 +110 109073 076 057 029 03
113630 1354N 08254W 6967 02982 9869 +105 +105 108075 077 061 008 00
113700 1352N 08255W 6968 02964 9844 +104 +104 109084 087 066 007 00
113730 1351N 08256W 6970 02928 9783 +108 //// 104092 095 076 006 01
113800 1349N 08258W 6968 02888 9716 +122 +112 098102 107 088 009 00
113830 1347N 08259W 6984 02819 9631 +153 +102 101108 110 095 002 00
113900 1346N 08300W 6967 02793 9587 +145 +124 104095 107 094 004 00
113930 1344N 08301W 6963 02739 9501 +166 +128 098076 085 071 002 00
114000 1342N 08302W 6960 02692 9436 +178 +132 100062 070 064 003 00
114030 1341N 08302W 6961 02650 9407 +165 +139 108041 059 046 002 03
114100 1339N 08303W 6971 02610 //// +145 //// 122016 032 028 001 05
114130 1338N 08304W 6962 02622 9391 +146 +145 286010 015 024 002 01
114200 1336N 08305W 6969 02623 9405 +148 +145 296031 041 033 004 05
114230 1335N 08306W 6962 02652 9418 +159 +143 307052 058 061 004 00
114300 1334N 08307W 6963 02685 9474 +143 +139 319073 083 093 007 03
$$
;

[Owasso]

939mb extrap.
110kt FL, 95kt SFMR.

[aspen]

A lot weaker, and it has a normal pressure gradient instead of a mix between a broad and compact one.

[wxman57]

Significant weakening due to the ERC. Hurricanes often drop 1-2 categories during an ERC. No Cat 5 for Eta. Barely may be a Cat 3 now.

[Owasso]

118kt FL, 131kt SFMR

[Owasso]

New advisory is 936mb/145mph.

[aspen]

If the models are right and a reforming Eta gets blocked in the WCar by competing/weak steering flows, we might see it rapidly intensify AGAIN next week. Or that could be Theta. Or it could be a more typical November storm in terms of intensity. Who knows.

[Nimbus]

Significant weakening due to the ERC. Hurricanes often drop 1-2 categories during an ERC. No Cat 5 for Eta. Barely may be a Cat 3 now.

And lots of spiral dry slot, best landfalling forecast possible.

[NDG]

Surprising how strong the southern eyewall is. Still far enough away from the coast for it to strengthen again before landfall.

[aspen]

If Eta becomes a remnant low and dissipates over CA, and those remnants re-develop over the NW Caribbean, would it still be Eta or would it be named Theta?

[Ryxn]

If Eta becomes a remnant low and dissipates over CA, and those remnants re-develop over the NW Caribbean, would it still be Eta or would it be named Theta?

Eta. If a low pressure separate from ex-Eta forms and develops, it would be Theta though this is looking less likely.

[aspen]

This EWRC is another victory for the HWRF. Several runs showed one beginning very close to landfall.

[Ryxn]

Appears to have really slowed down. Might be a few more hours until official landfall. Still a southerly component in movement.

[NDG]

This EWRC is another victory for the HWRF. Several runs showed one beginning very close to landfall.

Now lets see if the HWRF is correct in that Eta will stop its continuing southerly heading this morning and start moving nw towards the coast making landfall shortly after noon.

[NDG]

Same story continues, problems again with the recon's reports coming in.

[kevin]

940.6 mbar during the second pass, unflagged 127 kts FL winds.

[GCANE]

Recon reports a pinhole eye.
Circular, closed 8nm wide

[GCANE]

Rain rate nearly 90 mm/hr

[kevin]

Recon reports a pinhole eye.
Circular, closed 8nm wide

So that means the EWRC is over? In that case it might still have some time to strengthen if a landfall is delayed due to its slow movement.