ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Gusts are picking up again on the oil platform. I wish it had a pressure reading.

Most recent reading was 9:20pm EST

09 14 9:20 pm NE 68.0 76.0







The closest buoy with a pressure reading showed a massive pressure drop. Pretty cool watching the winds spike and the pressure plummet at the same time. Last reading was 9:10pm est







https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42040

[Keldeo1997]

Recon getting 983MB. Strengthening seems to be underway

[Nimbus]

The new eye looks much larger which may help keep the intensity down, but that is a lot more eyewall with the heaviest rains and winds over a much larger area.

[Blown Away]

00z early guidance models have Sally with an easterly component before making landfall, I think that would mean shear beginning before landfall.

[Ivanhater]

Cloud tops warming a bit... Given the proximity to land and churning over the same shallower waters for @36hrs... Its just my amateur opinion only, I’d be surprised if Sally can maintain 100 mph status before landfall... Again, JMHO...

Exactly, and that's probably why WXMAN is only going with 85mph. I thought initially he was crazy saying that, but now it makes total sense. Upwelling has done its number on fair number of slow moving storms in the past, and this thing is going to be crawling, especially as it gets closer to the coast, where upwelling really becomes an issue. ....I'm on board on the 85 MPH at landfall as well. I'm going with 80 to 90 mph sometimes tomorrow morning, and then a 10 mph increase or so after that and dropping to 85mph at landfall. I think it's probably closer to 90 MPH right now, but I don't know if the NHC would drop the winds due to its proxmity to land.

Nonetheless Winds were never going to be a huge issue anyway,it's the considerable flooding that this is going to cause. I dread seeing the after pictures, because I have a feeling that flooding is going to be the main story....

He said 75 to 85 kts, not mph

[eastcoastFL]

Here’s a link to the Biloxi light house cam. Just traffic at the moment but it maybe of interest tomorrow

https://youtu.be/6jlkpF6-BbA

[eastcoastFL]

Looking much better on radar at the moment. A nice band of thunderstorms look like they’re trying to wrap around the eye. Overall radar presentation has improved quite a bit in the past hour

[eastcoastFL]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/755241966962212944/50210710-329C-410D-A2D5-EEB152F4B702.png

Recon getting 983MB. Strengthening seems to be underway

Looks like pressure is still maintaining since the previous advisory. It was 988mb per nhc at 8pm est. I think they’ll stick with a 100mph storm at 11pm.

[us89]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/755241966962212944/50210710-329C-410D-A2D5-EEB152F4B702.png

Recon getting 983MB. Strengthening seems to be underway

Looks like pressure is still maintaining since the previous advisory. It was 988mb per nhc at 8pm est. I think they’ll stick with a 100mph storm at 11pm.

NHC definitely will stick with 100mph at 11. They won't want to give the appearance of a weakening storm, especially because it's likely to strengthen some more before it ultimately makes landfall.

[bella_may]

Looks like it just took a SW jog

[eastcoastFL]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/755241966962212944/50210710-329C-410D-A2D5-EEB152F4B702.png

Recon getting 983MB. Strengthening seems to be underway

Looks like pressure is still maintaining since the previous advisory. It was 988mb per nhc at 8pm est. I think they’ll stick with a 100mph storm at 11pm.

NHC definitely will stick with 100mph at 11. They won't want to give the appearance of a weakening storm, especially because it's likely to strengthen some more before it ultimately makes landfall.

I think if there were some significant weakening they’d adjust it downward but they also like to see a trend over multiple hours and currently there’s no consistent weakening trend. It’s just going through the motions. I think Aric said earlier it would pulse up and down for a while.

[shiny-pebble]

Eyewall looks less organized than an hour ago.

[wxman57]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/755241966962212944/50210710-329C-410D-A2D5-EEB152F4B702.png

Recon getting 983MB. Strengthening seems to be underway

Looks like pressure is still maintaining since the previous advisory. It was 988mb per nhc at 8pm est. I think they’ll stick with a 100mph storm at 11pm.

NHC definitely will stick with 100mph at 11. They won't want to give the appearance of a weakening storm, especially because it's likely to strengthen some more before it ultimately makes landfall.

True, NHC won't indicate weakening so that coastal residents don't stop monitoring. However, plane just cannot find anything over about 60-65 kts (2 planes). By the way, I'm typing with 2 hands now, just 4 days after getting a titanium plate put in to join the 3 pieces of my radius bone. Feels good.

[Raebie]

Looks like pressure is still maintaining since the previous advisory. It was 988mb per nhc at 8pm est. I think they’ll stick with a 100mph storm at 11pm.

NHC definitely will stick with 100mph at 11. They won't want to give the appearance of a weakening storm, especially because it's likely to strengthen some more before it ultimately makes landfall.

True, NHC won't indicate weakening so that coastal residents don't stop monitoring. However, plane just cannot find anything over about 60-65 kts (2 planes). By the way, I'm typing with 2 hands now, just 4 days after getting a titanium plate put in to join the 3 pieces of my radius bone. Feels good.

Glad you're mending so quickly!

[tropicwatch]

I wonder if they will call it stationary at the next update?

[Dean4Storms]

This isn’t a crawl, it’s a stumble around.

[Fancy1001]

Just got off work and I see Sally hasn't moved much.

[wxman57]

Consensus (TVCN) shifted farther east to Mobile Bay.

[Florabamaman]

It's a very ominous feeling watching Sally sit out there and churn just south of me and still not really know with any confidence where she is gonna go.

[Hurricane Mike]

Sally looks almost stationary