ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SouthernBreeze]

NOAA still sticking with W motion - skimming to the south of most of Hispaniola still could be possible

[ConvergenceZone]

Let’s all hope Laura struggles with dry air and shear like Marco is when it enters the Gulf or else it could be a significant storm.

Nope, 2 of the mets already confirmed this won't be an issue. The trough that will have been effecting Marco will be long gone and wxman mentioned that Marco is too small of a storm to effect laura much. Also, Marco will be moistening up the atmosphere, basically priming it for Laura's arrival....

[Kingarabian]

I think the NHC will bump the intensity forecast to show a Cat.2 for the next update.

[Kazmit]

I think the NHC will bump the intensity forecast to show a Cat.2 for the next update.

Possibly, but they will probably stay pretty conservative for now until it becomes more clear that it's not going to fall apart into a wave over the GAs.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think the NHC will bump the intensity forecast to show a Cat.2 for the next update.

I think they will bump it up too, but I think they won't bump it until tomorrow morning, just my prediction...

[eastcoastFL]

Recon finding impressive winds, but they may be enhanced by the Mona passage.

Is it typically really windy there?

[Hurricane Mike]

Georges deepened alot over the Mona Passage.

[FLpanhandle91]

That wind field recon is finding indicates that the center is actually SOUTH of the DR. Wow.

[shiny-pebble]

I wouldn't be surprised if the southern center dissipates as it runs onto DR, and new one forms more north. I think the HWRF might have showed this but I may be wrong. Just my opinion

[tiger_deF]

I have no idea what's going on with this storm

[Hammy]

Recon finding impressive winds, but they may be enhanced by the Mona passage.

Is it typically really windy there?

Think of it the same way as winds blowing between buildings, it's condensed and can accelerate. As far as I know this can also help storms spin up.

[Uptownmeow]

Here in New Orleans watching very closely. Finished up stocking up for a stay through both and tanks full of gas in case we need to bug out at some point.

[Nimbus]

Lowest pressures recon found so far were 1003.3 mb along the north coast of the DR mostly above 1006 mb's with 50 knot winds in the Mona passage. See if they find anything below 1006 mb's south of the DR, some of that convection was from the circulation going over the mountains but if they find a southern vort with a pressure drop..

[eastcoastFL]

[Ken711]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL132020_wind_probs_34_F120+png/234740.png

Not something you see very often.

[Keldeo1997]

3 Analogs for Gulf Coast Major's that Tracked over GA's

[gfsperpendicular]

That wind field recon is finding indicates that the center is actually SOUTH of the DR. Wow.

Are you sure? I had interpreted that as an eddy with the real center inland on the east DR. The winds near the more south shift were much, much weaker and do not correspond to any sort of pressure fall. I think they flew close but east of the center here:

[eastcoastFL]

Lowest pressures recon found so far were 1003.3 mb along the north coast of the DR mostly above 1006 mb's with 50 knot winds in the Mona passage. See if they find anything below 1006 mb's south of the DR, some of that convection was from the circulation going over the mountains but if they find a southern vort with a pressure drop..

Have they tagged a center yet? Looks like the last recon flight into Marco found lower pressure then Laura but Laura seems to have higher winds. The highest wind I saw on Marco was 45kts last flight unless I missed something

[eastcoastFL]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/746893015259283547/Laura_Analogues.png

3 Analogs for Gulf Coast Major's that Tracked over GA's

And all of them look like they were tropical storms when they entered the gulf

[Hammy]

Lowest pressures recon found so far were 1003.3 mb along the north coast of the DR mostly above 1006 mb's with 50 knot winds in the Mona passage. See if they find anything below 1006 mb's south of the DR, some of that convection was from the circulation going over the mountains but if they find a southern vort with a pressure drop..

Have they tagged a center yet? Looks like the last recon flight into Marco found lower pressure then Laura but Laura seems to have higher winds. The highest wind I saw on Marco was 45kts last flight unless I missed something

Looks like it's pretty clearly closed now and a bit south of 18N 69W.