ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sma10]

Looking at the models, it really wouldn't take an awful lot for the Keys to be in a real mess. Just the slightest right of track movement would not only put them in the crosshairs, but it would also mean a track with less land interaction.

And that's just with the slightest of rightward error. Let's not even talk about Laura moving as rightward the next 24hrs as Marco did the past 24 hrs.

[1900hurricane]

They dont show it weakening at all over Hispaniola

INIT 22/2100Z 18.0N 68.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 18.9N 70.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 23/1800Z 20.1N 74.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/0600Z 21.6N 78.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/1800Z 23.0N 81.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 25/0600Z 24.3N 84.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 25/1800Z 25.7N 87.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 29.0N 90.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 33.0N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

85 MPH is not that bullish considering it’s late-August and heading straight into the GoM. I know that could change but they’ve been pretty consistent for several advisories for now.

Maybe could be due to them considering the Euro's intensity. The Euro in prior years is notorious (at least this is true for the EPAC) to initialize Cat.4 hurricanes as 999mb TS's.

Based on past performance, I don't think NHC is going to give much consideration to ECMWF (EMXI) intensity output.

[Nimbus]

18z GFS seems to be locking onto the earlier mesovortex moving off the NW coast of PR and sliding it along the north coast of Hispaniola tomorrow. Will be interesting to see if that's accurate.

May not be much visible on the Infrared tonight, as there is some lift from winds out of the north going over the eastern hills of Hispaniola. Wasn't recon tasked with a flight north of Hispaniola once the envelope gets a little further west?

[eastcoastFL]

18z GFS seems to be locking onto the earlier mesovortex moving off the NW coast of PR and sliding it along the north coast of Hispaniola tomorrow. Will be interesting to see if that's accurate.

May not be much visible on the Infrared tonight, as there is some lift from winds out of the north going over the eastern hills of Hispaniola. Wasn't recon tasked with a flight north of Hispaniola once the envelope gets a little further west?

Recon is heading that way now from Florida

[Jr0d]

Looking at the models, it really wouldn't take an awful lot for the Keys to be in a real mess. Just the slightest right of track movement would not only put them in the crosshairs, but it would also mean a track with less land interaction.

And that's just with the slightest of rightward error. Let's not even talk about Laura moving as rightward the next 24hrs as Marco did the past 24 hrs.

I can tell you the Keys are not prepared for a hurricane. I have been getting scoffed at on social media when I try to tell folks to be prepared. Very few are concerned because it is only a tropical storm and the track shifted south yesterday.

A small jog to the right could give Laura a chance to become a hurricane before hitting the Keys. If the center reforms to the north tonight like some have suggested, that will also push the track further right.

Hopefully the storm follows the NHC's forecast, if it does as the HWRF is showing, the Keys will take a huge hit. More so than normal because of the lack of preparation.

[tiger_deF]

I've seen low end hurricanes with worse outflow patterns and banding than Laura has now

[MississippiWx]

18z GFS seems to be locking onto the earlier mesovortex moving off the NW coast of PR and sliding it along the north coast of Hispaniola tomorrow. Will be interesting to see if that's accurate.

May not be much visible on the Infrared tonight, as there is some lift from winds out of the north going over the eastern hills of Hispaniola. Wasn't recon tasked with a flight north of Hispaniola once the envelope gets a little further west?

Recon is heading that way now from Florida

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA3-0613A-LAURA_dropsondes.png

That’s another upper level dropsonde mission.

Recon is on the ground until tomorrow.

[robbielyn]

I saw geocolor sat of Laura from caribbean and zoomed out. I clearly saw the center clear PR to the nw corner now crossing over to hispaniola. it’s going west toward it, not above it. it’s crossing the mona from pr into hispaniola. the llc is at the very top of the island but not going nw at least not yet.

[sma10]

Looking at the models, it really wouldn't take an awful lot for the Keys to be in a real mess. Just the slightest right of track movement would not only put them in the crosshairs, but it would also mean a track with less land interaction.

And that's just with the slightest of rightward error. Let's not even talk about Laura moving as rightward the next 24hrs as Marco did the past 24 hrs.

I can tell you the Keys are not prepared for a hurricane. I have been getting scoffed at on social media when I try to tell folks to be prepared. Very few are concerned because it is only a tropical storm and the track shifted south yesterday.

A small jog to the right could give Laura a chance to become a hurricane before hitting the Keys. If the center reforms to the north tonight like some have suggested, that will also push the track further right.

Hopefully the storm follows the NHC's forecast, if it does as the HWRF is showing, the Keys will take a huge hit. More so than normal because of the lack of preparation.

The Keys are often between a rock and a hard place due to its isolation. But the margin for error here is miniscule. Only 2 model runs ago, the HWRF had Laura a bit further away from land and hit the middle keys at 971mb, which given that area of the basin is very realistic. Hopefully for you guys it hugs land

[CyclonicFury]

May not be much visible on the Infrared tonight, as there is some lift from winds out of the north going over the eastern hills of Hispaniola. Wasn't recon tasked with a flight north of Hispaniola once the envelope gets a little further west?

Recon is heading that way now from Florida

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA3-0613A-LAURA_dropsondes.png

That’s another upper level dropsonde mission.

Recon is on the ground until tomorrow.

I thought NOAA3 was Miss Piggy, a plane used for low-level missions?

[ConvergenceZone]

I decided to trust the NHC on this. If they say that Laura will cross Hispaniola and still maintain its 50 mph, then I believe them..... They are obviously seeing something I'm not....

[alienstorm]

Mission 06 is a low level invest from Florida.


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[ConvergenceZone]

Looking at the models, it really wouldn't take an awful lot for the Keys to be in a real mess. Just the slightest right of track movement would not only put them in the crosshairs, but it would also mean a track with less land interaction.

And that's just with the slightest of rightward error. Let's not even talk about Laura moving as rightward the next 24hrs as Marco did the past 24 hrs.

I can tell you the Keys are not prepared for a hurricane. I have been getting scoffed at on social media when I try to tell folks to be prepared. Very few are concerned because it is only a tropical storm and the track shifted south yesterday.

A small jog to the right could give Laura a chance to become a hurricane before hitting the Keys. If the center reforms to the north tonight like some have suggested, that will also push the track further right.

Hopefully the storm follows the NHC's forecast, if it does as the HWRF is showing, the Keys will take a huge hit. More so than normal because of the lack of preparation.

Hopefully the keys won't have to worry about a hurricane this season. They know they don't need to worry about Laura being a hurricane in that area, but there's still quite a bit of hurricane season left though.. Hopefully if the Keys get tropical storm winds from laura,it won't be too bad.

[artist]

May not be much visible on the Infrared tonight, as there is some lift from winds out of the north going over the eastern hills of Hispaniola. Wasn't recon tasked with a flight north of Hispaniola once the envelope gets a little further west?

Recon is heading that way now from Florida

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA3-0613A-LAURA_dropsondes.png

That’s another upper level dropsonde mission.

Recon is on the ground until tomorrow.

There is a g-iv flight out there now, and another almost there, that is supposed to be a regular recon flight

[SouthernBreeze]

I decided to trust the NHC on this. If they say that Laura will cross Hispaniola and still maintain its 50 mph, then I believe them..... They are obviously seeing something I'm not....

well, they kinda said she will cross over it.../ from 5pm Discussion -

3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts
remain uncertain since Laura is forecast to move near or over
portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday.

[eastcoastFL]

May not be much visible on the Infrared tonight, as there is some lift from winds out of the north going over the eastern hills of Hispaniola. Wasn't recon tasked with a flight north of Hispaniola once the envelope gets a little further west?

Recon is heading that way now from Florida

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA3-0613A-LAURA_dropsondes.png

That’s another upper level dropsonde mission.

Recon is on the ground until tomorrow.

I think it’s a regular recon mission. It says surface to 10000

FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 43
A. 22/2330Z
B. NOAA3 0713A LAURA
C. 22/2100Z
D. 19.5N
E. 22/2300Z TO 23/0400Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[ObsessedMiami]

Hopefully the keys won't have to worry about a hurricane this season. They know they don't need to worry about Laura being a hurricane in that area, but there's still quite a bit of hurricane season left though.. Hopefully if the Keys get tropical storm winds from laura,it won't be too bad.

They know? No one can be certain. Not until it passes your location. If I lived in the Keys, I would be watching carefully the next 24 hours

[stormwatcher95]

[wicked_wx_watcher]

What is the probability, if any, of Laura making a westward jog back for a Texas landfall?

[tiger_deF]

https://i.imgur.com/56PrFDS.jpg

Is it just me or is this a good bit south of the DR?