ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TallahasseeMan]

This is about to take a serious hit from Hispaniola...

Indeed land interaction will certainly be an issue given where she is and headed at this point. Even if the center relocates, the tall mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba should restrict inflow and disrupt her quite a bit, maybe even open her back up into a wave. I don’t buy models that show strengthening as she moves over or near those islands. Once past the islands, conditions do look good in the Gulf. Marco will be a wild card as he could impact her a bit more than we think.

I respect the double down, we'll see what happens.

[alienstorm]

No question the LLC is over PR.

[Jr0d]

Even if our storm ends up north of the shredder and cuba, it's going to face disruption from downsloping off Hispaniola and eastern cuba due to the mountainous terrain. It's going to be an issue for awhile. we just saw this with storm I a few weeks back. Laura gets points for tenacity. that's all you need to be potential trouble down the road.

Hispaniola helped spin up Isaias into a hurricane. It was dry air and shear that caused it to be downgraded as it approached Florida.

The mountains can help spin up a weak system. Aric is good at explaining why this happens.

[USTropics]

50 image loop of radar. While the radar location is 2,980 feet above sea level, given the conical beam emission as the storm approached, beam height was likely at ~1,000 feet. That's within the low-level boundary.

[Cat5James]

Even if our storm ends up north of the shredder and cuba, it's going to face disruption from downsloping off Hispaniola and eastern cuba due to the mountainous terrain. It's going to be an issue for awhile. we just saw this with storm I a few weeks back. Laura gets points for tenacity. that's all you need to be potential trouble down the road.

Hispaniola helped spin up Isaias into a hurricane. It was dry air and shear that caused it to be downgraded as it approached Florida.

The mountains can help spin up a weak system. Aric is good at explaining why this happens.

The mountains will kill off whatever remains of the weak llc that the NHC is clinging to and force consolidation with the newly formed circulation we all see on radar heading NW over PR

[eastcoastFL]

This is about to take a serious hit from Hispaniola...

Indeed land interaction will certainly be an issue given where she is and headed at this point. Even if the center relocates, the tall mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba should restrict inflow and disrupt her quite a bit, maybe even open her back up into a wave. I don’t buy models that show strengthening as she moves over or near those islands. Once past the islands, conditions do look good in the Gulf. Marco will be a wild card as he could impact her a bit more than we think.

Gatorcane, you've been riding the wave even when it was no longer a wave. I think Laura's center will end up north of the DR.

It’s never a guarantee that the mountains will open a storm up. Just last month Isaias avoided the mountains and ended up strengthening into a hurricane while passing along the coast. I’d say Laura has just as good of a chance at surviving.

[eastcoastFL]

No question the LLC is over PR.

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/752/PMQcfe.gif [/url]

Im not sure it. It kinda looks like it’s in the Mona passage on visible. But I’m not sure. I give up lol

[cheezyWXguy]

No question the LLC is over PR.

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/752/PMQcfe.gif [/url]

Im not sure it. It kinda looks like it’s in the Mona passage on visible. But I’m not sure. I give up lol

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/data/AL132020/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-AL132020-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif?hash=33735

I think its more likely we have two competing llc's at this point. You both can be right! - for now

[Nuno]

At this angle and rate movement, Laura's circulation over PR will likely move into a position that could minimize interaction with Hispanola.

[tolakram]

They moved the floater but you can see the MLC taking over near the end of the loop. Big question is if it wins out or not once NW of PR.

https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/grb/meso_vis/meso1_60.html

[ConvergenceZone]

This is about to take a serious hit from Hispaniola...

Indeed land interaction will certainly be an issue given where she is and headed at this point. Even if the center relocates, the tall mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba should restrict inflow and disrupt her quite a bit, maybe even open her back up into a wave. I don’t buy models that show strengthening as she moves over or near those islands. Once past the islands, conditions do look good in the Gulf. Marco will be a wild card as he could impact her a bit more than we think.

I agree gator. I mean how many times do we see a system approaching the islands and we are all commenting on how it's going to get shredded apart. But when Laura is forecast to potentially go over the same mountainous landmass, it's somehow going to be fine? That just doesn't make much sense to me, and contradicts what we usually know will happen....

[psyclone]

at long last we have a TC that looks like one. the system is a fighter for sure

[galaxy401]

No question the LLC is over PR.

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/752/PMQcfe.gif [/url]

Im not sure it. It kinda looks like it’s in the Mona passage on visible. But I’m not sure. I give up lol

To me I'm seeing the spin that is over Puerto Rico on that loop. Looks like it's becoming the dominant center.

[ConvergenceZone]

This is about to take a serious hit from Hispaniola...

Indeed land interaction will certainly be an issue given where she is and headed at this point. Even if the center relocates, the tall mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba should restrict inflow and disrupt her quite a bit, maybe even open her back up into a wave. I don’t buy models that show strengthening as she moves over or near those islands. Once past the islands, conditions do look good in the Gulf. Marco will be a wild card as he could impact her a bit more than we think.

The observations over PR are telling a story. Most likely the LLC is now aligned with the MLC will soon exit the north coast of PR. This will allow the core to remain intact and bypass most of the mountains. The NHC might need to make an adjustment and the models will need to catch up. It appears the LLC is not going to pass directly over the mountains as is currently forecasted.

Also, remember with Isaias the llc was able to tighten because it stayed enough offshore to take advantage of the land friction. So I think disruption will be minimal.

If what you are saying is correct, then yes, I agree that it will be fine. I guess we'll just have to see if it goes north of most of the islands or just skims them or goes down the middle lengthwise.

[sma10]

At this angle and rate movement, Laura's circulation over PR will likely move into a position that could minimize interaction with Hispanola.

Also, in regards to Hispaniola, it appears that the LLC will avoid directly impacting the more mountainous areas of the island, as well as having at least some portion of the circulation still over water. Not an ideal scenario for strengthening, but at the same time should allow her to maintain

[aspen]

At this trajectory, Laura will track right along the coast of the DR and have its weaker, southern center killed off — very similar to Isaias. Maybe the HWRF’s more northern solution isn’t too crazy anymore.

[ConvergenceZone]

Hard to believe the "apparent" spinning center is almost 1/2 way through Puerto Rico already. Gonna move back offshore before you know it.

[Blown Away]

50 image loop of radar. While the radar location is 2,980 feet above sea level, given the conical beam emission as the storm approached, beam height was likely at ~1,000 feet. That's within the low-level boundary.

https://s7.gifyu.com/images/radarloop-1.gif

Based on 2pm position, the NHC’s position should be @18N/68W which is W of PR in the Mona passage moving @WNW... The MLC is over Central PR moving NW... We should know soon how this unfolds.

[bella_may]

At this trajectory, Laura will track right along the coast of the DR and have its weaker, southern center killed off — very similar to Isaias. Maybe the HWRF’s more northern solution isn’t too crazy anymore.

Yeah doesn’t look like it’s gonna go south of the islands like some of the models said yesterday

[AtlanticWind]

This is about to take a serious hit from Hispaniola...

Indeed land interaction will certainly be an issue given where she is and headed at this point. Even if the center relocates, the tall mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba should restrict inflow and disrupt her quite a bit, maybe even open her back up into a wave. I don’t buy models that show strengthening as she moves over or near those islands. Once past the islands, conditions do look good in the Gulf. Marco will be a wild card as he could impact her a bit more than we think.

I agree gator. I mean how many times do we see a system approaching the islands and we are all commenting on how it's going to get shredded apart. But when Laura is forecast to potentially go over the same mountainous landmass, it's somehow going to be fine? That just doesn't make much sense to me, and contradicts what we usually know will happen....

Many storms have crossed the greater Antilles and survived ,Georges is one example