ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sanibel]

This is about to take a serious hit from Hispaniola...

[FLpanhandle91]

Could the track shift further east in that Southern Florida would have more of an impact and if so how much?

Everyone from South Florida to the Texas coast should still be monitoring this situation very closely.

[Cat5James]

This is about to take a serious hit from Hispaniola...

All that convection is going to swing north of Hispanola at the current trajectory

[DestinHurricane]

This is about to take a serious hit from Hispaniola...

How's that? Center is forming N of mona. It will miss Hispaniola.

[blp]

[St0rmTh0r]

Shear has really decreased around the storm if this avoids land chances of significant intensification is high

[eastcoastFL]

Recon is almost in the storm

[gatorcane]

This is about to take a serious hit from Hispaniola...

Indeed land interaction will certainly be an issue given where she is and headed at this point. Even if the center relocates, the tall mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba should restrict inflow and disrupt her quite a bit, maybe even open her back up into a wave. I don’t buy models that show strengthening as she moves over or near those islands. Once past the islands, conditions do look good in the Gulf. Marco will be a wild card as he could impact her a bit more than we think.

[aspen]

https://i.ibb.co/qmt5tFr/latest.png

That center is way NE of where the NHC put it for their intermediate advisory. I guess it’s already trying to go north.

[blp]

Nice pressure drop.



https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KSANTAIS2

[gfsperpendicular]

Recon is almost in the storm

I think that's an upper-level mission

[blp]

This is about to take a serious hit from Hispaniola...

Indeed land interaction will certainly be an issue given where she is and headed at this point. Even if the center relocates, the tall mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba should restrict inflow and disrupt her quite a bit, maybe even open her back up into a wave. I don’t buy models that show strengthening as she moves over or near those islands. Once past the islands, conditions do look good in the Gulf. Marco will be a wild card as he could impact her a bit more than we think.

The observations over PR are telling a story. Most likely the LLC is now aligned with the MLC will soon exit the north coast of PR. This will allow the core to remain intact and bypass most of the mountains. The NHC might need to make an adjustment and the models will need to catch up. It appears the LLC is not going to pass directly over the mountains as is currently forecasted.

Also, remember with Isaias the llc was able to tighten because it stayed enough offshore to take advantage of the land friction. So I think disruption will be minimal.

[eastcoastFL]

Recon is almost in the storm

I think that's an upper-level mission

You’re right it says upper level/dropsonde

[aspen]

Recon is almost in the storm

I think that's an upper-level mission

Yep, it’s an upper level dropsonde flight. At least it could help the models out.

[CourierPR]

This is about to take a serious hit from Hispaniola...

Indeed land interaction will certainly be an issue given where she is and headed at this point. Even if the center relocates, the tall mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba should restrict inflow and disrupt her quite a bit, maybe even open her back up into a wave. I don’t buy models that show strengthening as she moves over or near those islands. Once past the islands, conditions do look good in the Gulf. Marco will be a wild card as he could impact her a bit more than we think.

Gatorcane, you've been riding the wave even when it was no longer a wave. I think Laura's center will end up north of the DR.

[St0rmTh0r]

This is becoming a trend and really amazing how these storms recently seemingly go around PR with the island helping to consolidate a LLC. Happened last year with Dorian. This year Isaias and now Laura.

[AtlanticWind]

Laura is moving fast and the disruption to the system from Hispanola and Cuba is probably going
to be less than normal. I believe thats why the models are showing less weakening.

[MississippiWx]

Believe the HH won’t investigate Laura again until tomorrow. Saw that they couldn’t fly into it since they are in the impact zone. It was on twitter earlier.

[psyclone]

Even if our storm ends up north of the shredder and cuba, it's going to face disruption from downsloping off Hispaniola and eastern cuba due to the mountainous terrain. It's going to be an issue for awhile. we just saw this with storm I a few weeks back. Laura gets points for tenacity. that's all you need to be potential trouble down the road.

[Jr0d]

Hopefully this storm will not catch the Keys off guard as most around here are brushing it off. Many that stayed for Irma in Key West think a cat 1/2 is nothing. Unfortunatly they fail to accept that Key West was on the weak side of Irma and never went through the eyewall, we only had minimal hurricane conditions in Key West.

As of now, it appears that Laura might finally establish north west of Puerto Rico tonight, just as the HWRF depicted. While I hate to cling to one model, this is the one that has performed the best so far and takes it across the Keys as a strengthening hurricane.

If this scenario plays out, there will be a lot of people caught completely off guard.

Hopefully at this time tomorrow, the threat of a severe impact will be far less. Right now I put Key West under a medium threat...and it will be this way until the storm clears Hispaniola.