ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nimbus]

The reported SECTORES SIN SERVICIO stats for PR are not too bad yet but seem focused on the west end of the island. The way the mid level echoes are moving any offshore low level vort is going to get dragged northwest through the Mona passage?

[eastcoastFL]

Surface obs on the NW coast and north coast are still out of the SSE and south.. while over DR they are out of the NOrth and NNW..

the surface circ is moving north of the MONA passage.

So in that case what effect does the mlc moving onshore of PR have on the storm as a whole?

[St0rmTh0r]

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/lC31tfS.gif

That swirl is really gaining some latitude.

Being pulled towards the LLC to the NW

[FLpanhandle91]

If the MLC ends up taking over, it is going north of the 00z forecast plot by the NHC very soon. The LLC that Aric has been pointing out is already north of that point.

[Blown Away]

2:00 PM AST Sat Aug 22
Location: 17.9°N 67.5°W
Moving: W at 18 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

NHC not agreeing with the MLC moving NNW into Central PR. The 2pm position is offshore the SW corner of PR.

[Cat5James]

If the MLC ends up taking over, it is going north of the 00z forecast plot by the NHC very soon. The LLC that Aric has been pointing out is already north of that point.

and will be in more favorable conditions sooner then later

[eastcoastFL]

Surface obs on the NW coast and north coast are still out of the SSE and south.. while over DR they are out of the NOrth and NNW..

the surface circ is moving north of the MONA passage.

I think I see what you mean. on visible I see what appears to be some kind of inflow towards where you say the circulation is

[Highteeld]

 https://twitter.com/NWSSanJuan/status/1297224540175634432

[Beef Stew]

Should the MLC end up taking over and skirting north through the Mona Passage, the HWRF would've nailed the reformation. We'll see in a matter of hours if this comes to fruition.

[eastcoastFL]

2:00 PM AST Sat Aug 22
Location: 17.9°N 67.5°W
Moving: W at 18 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

NHC not agreeing with the MLC moving NNW into Central PR. The 2pm position is offshore the SW corner of PR.

Makes sense. Radar was deceiving but visible shows some clouds that seem like inflow coming in Around that position. I really wish recon would get there already

[FLpanhandle91]

I'm usually never one to question the expertise of the NHC, but just for discussion's sake, is it possible they are using ONLY ASCAT data for their center fix? Both radar imagery and surface obs say that the LLC is north of the Mona Passage and maybe the MLC working down to the surface. Neither one of those support the ASCAT fix.

[Ritzcraker]

I’m in North LA wondering if I should be prepping for Cat 1 impacts. My mom on the other hand is down in Southeast LA and is not sure if she wants to leave for the week. The uncertainty is causing a ton of anxiety with folks down there.

I’d prepare for Cat 1 or worse and a lot of rain. The last HWRF run has a 115kt cane coming in just west of Nola so I’d try to get mom to come stay with you until these storms pass and you know it’s safe for her to be at home.

I’ve been trying. She’s stubborn lol

[eastcoastFL]

I’m in North LA wondering if I should be prepping for Cat 1 impacts. My mom on the other hand is down in Southeast LA and is not sure if she wants to leave for the week. The uncertainty is causing a ton of anxiety with folks down there.

I’d prepare for Cat 1 or worse and a lot of rain. The last HWRF run has a 115kt cane coming in just west of Nola so I’d try to get mom to come stay with you until these storms pass and you know it’s safe for her to be at home.

I’ve been trying. She’s stubborn lol

I’ve been through it a dozen times with my grandmother and lost every battle lol. They think they’ve seen and survived it all so it doesn’t matter. Good luck you’ve got a few battles ahead of you.

[eastcoastFL]

Here’s a good wide shot and you can clearly see the clouds flowing into the llc where the NHC and Aric have the center near the Mona passage

[blp]

Another met is convinced.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1297233514044239872

[Blinhart]

I'm sure the forecasters at the NHC are looking at each other, saying can you believe what is going on right now. I think that they both might be upgraded to Hurricane at the same time. Has that ever happened before, 2 systems being upgraded at the same time??

[HuracanMaster]

Levi is onboard with the idea

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1297225552995201025

Strong winds in gust now hitting my location, mlc entering the island between ponce and guayama municipalities now.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

[ColdMiser123]

Levi is onboard with the idea

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1297225552995201025?s=20

The beam height at that area of spin is close to the surface, no longer looking in the mid-levels at ~1000 feet up.

[wzrgirl1]

Could the track shift further east in that Southern Florida would have more of an impact and if so how much?

[StormSkeptic]

Have been looking at that "MLC" that has been moving across PR and noted that it is very close to the radar site so must be close to the surface. But then looked it up and the radar site is at almost 3,000 ft. So, while I agree it looks like the MLC is working its way down to the surface (the surface obs on the east side of the Island are mostly from the south) that feature as depicted by radar is still at about 925mb.