ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
SconnieCane
- Category 5
- Posts: 1005
- Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:29 pm
- Location: Madison, WI
Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
For those who missed...further intensification into a Cat. 5 and re-intensification into a tropical storm after re-emergence both explicitly forecast on the new advisory.
2 likes
Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
Probably 135 kt/922 mbar based on this pass.
2 likes
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
-
ElectricStorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 5065
- Age: 24
- Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
- Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK
Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
SconnieCane wrote:For those who missed...further intensification into a Cat. 5 and re-intensification into a tropical storm after re-emergence both explicitly forecast on the new advisory.
It's not very often NHC explicitly shows a Cat 5 forecast...
3 likes
B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25
Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
aspen wrote:Probably 135 kt/922 mbar based on this pass.
I don't know about the wind speed of 135 knots but the pressure has to be lower than 922.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
SouthDadeFish
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 2835
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
- Location: Miami, FL
- Contact:
Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
One has to wonder if the very slow forward motion will lead to upwelling issues at some point.
3 likes
Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
Blinhart wrote:aspen wrote:Probably 135 kt/922 mbar based on this pass.
I don't know about the wind speed of 135 knots but the pressure has to be lower than 922.
There was an unflagged SFMR reading close to 135 kt.
0 likes
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
-
Kazmit
- Category 5
- Posts: 2125
- Age: 22
- Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
- Location: Williamsburg, VA / Bermuda
Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
This thread absolutely died after that first pass 
9 likes
Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
Neither planes have reported for 20+ minutes. Dual transmissions issues?
1 likes
-
ElectricStorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 5065
- Age: 24
- Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
- Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK
Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
Owasso wrote:https://i.postimg.cc/RZrRkzBm/image.png
A gust?
Likely a gust but GEEZ
Although it is pretty consistent with the wind a little higher up so we'll see.
Last edited by ElectricStorm on Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25
Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
-
Hypercane_Kyle
- Category 5
- Posts: 3359
- Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
- Location: Cape Canaveral, FL
Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
2 likes
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
Owasso wrote:https://i.postimg.cc/RZrRkzBm/image.png
A gust?
Oh wow....special advisory coming? That could be enough to upgrade to a Cat 5 (not a high end 5, just a normal 5).
0 likes
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
Dropsonde measured 155 knots at the surface.
940mb (27.76 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 25.8°C (78.4°F) 25.1°C (77°F) 135° (from the SE) 155 knots (178 mph)
940mb (27.76 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 25.8°C (78.4°F) 25.1°C (77°F) 135° (from the SE) 155 knots (178 mph)
0 likes
-
Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 9290
- Age: 21
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
That is a undoubted CAT 5.
1 likes
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
Iceresistance wrote:Hypercane_Kyle wrote:https://i.imgur.com/Fa6Nx91.png
That is a undoubted CAT 5.
Not quite yetttt but with more sampling this will def be a Cat.5 pretty quick.
0 likes
-
Hypercane_Kyle
- Category 5
- Posts: 3359
- Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
- Location: Cape Canaveral, FL
Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
155 knots was a gust, but the average wind over the lowest 150 meters of the sounding was 154 knots. Good case for Cat 5, IMO.
0 likes
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
Last edited by Owasso on Mon Nov 02, 2020 10:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
-
ElectricStorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 5065
- Age: 24
- Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
- Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK
Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
Iceresistance wrote:Hypercane_Kyle wrote:https://i.imgur.com/Fa6Nx91.png
That is a undoubted CAT 5.
A lot of times dropsondes are gusts but it's pretty much a certainty this will be a Cat 5 now/soon.
0 likes
B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25
Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
-
Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 9290
- Age: 21
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
It looks like the Tropical Tidbits Recon site has crashed!
0 likes
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
These eyewall drops remind me of Dorian. Strongest winds seem concentrated in the lowest layer of the eyewall, so SFMR exceeding flight level would make sense.
2 likes
Solar Aquarian
Lunar Cancerian
Sagittarian
Lunar Cancerian
SagittarianWho is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests