ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NWSSanJuan/status/1297224540175634432

[blp]

Surface obs support this might be at the surface.

[eastcoastFL]

Interesting...https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200822/9602bc315c36f377b0a9e4fa6859473e.jpg

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That’s what I’ve been looking at. But I guess it’s the MLC?

[Kazmit]

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/lC31tfS.gif

That swirl is really gaining some latitude.

[SconnieCane]

Almost looks like a tiny eyewall south of Guayama. If that's it, going to get disrupted by PR but will miss Hispaniola and Cuba on that sharp NW heading.

[eastcoastFL]

Almost looks like a tiny eyewall south of Guayama. If that's it, going to get disrupted by PR but will miss Hispaniola and Cuba on that sharp NW heading.

That might be a worse case scenario playing out

[Nimbus]

It needs to pull up north fast or else it’s got a battle on its hands. Those mountains are no joke. They took Erika and 2015 and beat the crap out of it. Same with Debby in 2000....and those were a lot stronger than this. So I’m not convinced with these models that this thing survives if it takes the long track over the GA. A short track skirting it to the north and it can.

If a storm has a large enough radius of wind rotating at tropical storm speeds the mountains can take out the core of the system so there is no sharp pressure gradient once it gets back out over the water. The surface pressure is flat lined across the whole storm so there isn't a lower pressure central updraft or any inflow feeding one. A weaker system that gets back out over water doesn't have that inhibition and can blow up into a hurricane as easily as it could from the low surface pressure of an open wave.

That is why we like to see the monsters shredded by Hispaniola, problem this time is we don't have a monster yet.

[crimi481]

Moving nw now. PR may be last landfall until Keys or n gulf coast. I do believe

[eastcoastFL]

HWRF showed the low where the mlc is and then crosses PR heading NW as it appears to be doing. Looks like the 12z HWRF forecast is playing out right now on radar

[USTropics]

It's likely the MLC has sustained enough deep convection to work the vorticity down to the surface, seems the LLC on mesoscale has either been dragged towards it or has dissipated.

[Hammy]

It needs to pull up north fast or else it’s got a battle on its hands. Those mountains are no joke. They took Erika and 2015 and beat the crap out of it. Same with Debby in 2000....and those were a lot stronger than this. So I’m not convinced with these models that this thing survives if it takes the long track over the GA. A short track skirting it to the north and it can.

This is where angle of approach comes in--Erika came out of the SE which is the worst possible direction for a storm to be able to maintain itself.

No doubt now the MLC is rotating around and will eventually win out and be the dominant one once the llc crashes and burns over DR. HWRF scenario playing out quite excellent right now.

CMC has been hinting at this over the last several runs as well--does it enhance the spin or simply allow the MLC to take over?

[Cat5James]

Interesting...https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200822/9602bc315c36f377b0a9e4fa6859473e.jpg

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That’s what I’ve been looking at. But I guess it’s the MLC?

The MLC seems to be the dominant circulation, and may reestablish a llc north of DR

[northjaxpro]

Well, I tell you, I will be glad when this suspense of whether or not Laura will clear Hispaniola will end. We will get our answer in the next 24 hours one way or the other. This back and forth debate about this is getting weary. I understand how critical this aspect is, but man some of you are really relentless about this.

[eastcoastFL]

Ok it really looks like the storm is wrapping around that mlc location. I’d love to hear what a pro met or Aric thinks

[blp]

Levi is onboard with the idea

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1297225552995201025

[eastcoastFL]

Well, I tell you, I will be glad when this suspense of whether or not Laura will clear Hispaniola will end. We will get our answer in the next 24 hours one way or the other. This back and forth debate about this is getting weary. I understand how critical this aspect is, but man some of you are really relentless about this.

North Jax what’s your thoughts on the MLC taking over?

[Ritzcraker]

I’m in North LA wondering if I should be prepping for Cat 1 impacts. My mom on the other hand is down in Southeast LA and is not sure if she wants to leave for the week. The uncertainty is causing a ton of anxiety with folks down there.

[northjaxpro]

Well, I tell you, I will be glad when this suspense of whether or not Laura will clear Hispaniola will end. We will get our answer in the next 24 hours one way or the other. This back and forth debate about this is getting weary. I understand how critical this aspect is, but man some of you are really relentless about this.

North Jax what’s your thoughts on the MLC taking over?

It is plausible. In most occasions the MLC usually stacks vertically with the LLC in usual instances. But, this year 2020 as we all know, has been as atypical as I have seen it in my years of analyzing weather in the tropics. So, I would not be shocked if the MLC were to take over. It would follow the craziness that is 2020.

[eastcoastFL]

I’m in North LA wondering if I should be prepping for Cat 1 impacts. My mom on the other hand is down in Southeast LA and is not sure if she wants to leave for the week. The uncertainty is causing a ton of anxiety with folks down there.

I’d prepare for Cat 1 or worse and a lot of rain. The last HWRF run has a 115kt cane coming in just west of Nola so I’d try to get mom to come stay with you until these storms pass and you know it’s safe for her to be at home.

[Aric Dunn]

Surface obs on the NW coast and north coast are still out of the SSE and south.. while over DR they are out of the NOrth and NNW..

the surface circ is moving north of the MONA passage.