ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ozonepete]

SFMR 135 knots. Pressure down ~2mb extrapolated.

And that's in the SE quad. Wouldn't that be the weakest in a SW moving storm?

Generally yes. The slower the motion the less it matters, of course.

[skyline385]

Is it stalling?

[CyclonicFury]

Remember, at extreme intensities, NHC does not trust SFMR that much, so for NHC to upgrade to Category 5, a blend of flight level winds at 90% reduction and SFMR winds will likely need to average to >137 kt.

We likely won't see Eta upgraded to Category 5 unless recon finds some >150 kt flight-level wind values.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Remember, at extreme intensities, NHC does not trust SFMR that much, so for NHC to upgrade to Category 5, a blend of flight level winds at 90% reduction and SFMR winds will likely need to average to >137 kt.

We likely won't see Eta upgraded to Category 5 unless recon finds some >150 kt flight-level wind values.

I disagree, the NHC went pretty much verbatim with SFMR at the 10pm EST advisory.

[RL3AO]

922 extrap with some winds. Still rapidly intensifying it seems.

[SouthDadeFish]

922 mb extrap... Still rapidly intensifying.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

922.4mb extrapolated. Still dropping like a tank. Winds likely Cat 5 in the south quad.

[NDG]

I was wrong, NW eyewall weakest.

[CrazyC83]

922 mb extrap... Still rapidly intensifying.

That's a drop of 5 mb in less than an hour.

[StAuggy]

https://i.postimg.cc/RVr3LCmc/image.png

Forecast to re-emerge and intensify to a Tropical Storm now.

Let’s hope it doesn’t stay on that trajectory of the last two depression plot points. I don’t want to think about it if this manages to skirt the coast and split the channel on its way to the gulf should it head more north instead of east

Hopefully it doesn’t survive. It’s unfortunate and devastating what’s about to happen to folks in CA over the next couple of days. Hopefully the mountains tear it apart and it fizzles out fast.

Yes. Please pull a Goni! But why would they forecast it to re-enter and strengthen knowing it’s going to traverse over mountainous terrain and would most likely not survive? Is this a cautionary forecast or is there more to the story

[skyline385]

I was wrong, NW eyewall weakest.

They turned and went for NE eyewall.

[Aric Dunn]

really really.. why.. why fly out the NE quad.. its like Zeta all over again.. lol

[us89]

I was wrong, NW eyewall weakest.

They didn't even go through the NW eyewall. That last pass entered from SE and exited to the NE.

[Hammy]

I was wrong, NW eyewall weakest.

Didn't go through the NW, they turned NE for some reason.

[aspen]

Deepening rate is exactly 4 mb/hr. If this keeps up for just two more hours, Eta will surpass the 1932 Cuba hurricane as the strongest November TC in the Atlantic.

Only 3-4 hours of this and it’ll be in the Top 10.

[ClarCari]

Next recon is also booking it to Eta!

This will be an interesting overnight!

[MississippiWx]

We have to be past the point of rapid intensification. Surely this qualifies as explosive deepening/extremely rapid intensification.

[Blinhart]

I was wrong, NW eyewall weakest.

Didn't go through the NW, they turned NE for some reason.

Might not have permission to go into that air space.

[skyline385]

Convection seems to be waning off slightly

[ElectricStorm]

We have to be past the point of rapid intensification. Surely this qualifies as explosive deepening/extremely rapid intensification.

Oh yeah for sure!