ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[FLpanhandle91]

Man recon sure would be nice right now.

[ConvergenceZone]

Looks like the gfs wants to ride just north of the islands keeping Laura from degrading but also keeping her from bombing also for now. No help for her meeting with the Florida straights and gulf.

The GFS is just being stupid. If this went North of the islands, it would possibly Bomb out as Levi and several Mets suggested it could. I just don’t see it going North of the islands at this point. It’s getting way too close already

before we diss the gfs run, the hwrf has liked this lets stay to the right idea for days now and to be fair its done the best so far...i rip the gfs and hwrf often but maybe they are on to something

I’m just referring to the GFS not potentially Bombing it out like the professionals were saying could happen if it stays North of the islands

[St0rmTh0r]

I agree with the poster/posters who show the circulation north of Rico. Once convection fires the MLC will either follow or die off

[eastcoastFL]

Gfs brings Cat 1 Marco east of Nola and 964mb Laura west of Nola in consecutive days...

[Cat5James]

Last few frames of IR look like Laura might be ready to actually gain some latitude... could be wrong

[eastcoastFL]

Shouldn’t recon be in the storm pretty soon?

[eastcoastFL]

Last few frames of IR look like Laura might be ready to actually gain some latitude... could be wrong

Looks like it on here too.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 403&y=7101

[crimi481]

Miami to Ft Meyers need to watch this. Anything possible at this stage.

[galaxy401]

Special update.

Tropical Storm Laura Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1200 PM AST Sat Aug 22 2020

...LAURA STRENGTHENS SOME...

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the maximum
sustained winds in Tropical Storm Laura have increased to near 45
mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. These winds are occurring mainly
in a band to the south of Vieques and eastern Puerto Rico.


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM AST...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 67.2W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WSW OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[St0rmTh0r]

Gfs brings Cat 1 Marco east of Nola and 964mb Laura west of Nola in consecutive days...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020082212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_18.png

That would be insanity to the max! Then there's always the chance these storms can get stronger than expected

[captainbarbossa19]

I am watching this storm closely. Even though the GFS shifted east, I would not be surprised if the ridge is stronger than currently anticipated. Laura needs to go away.

[Blown Away]

Looks like the gfs wants to ride just north of the islands keeping Laura from degrading but also keeping her from bombing also for now. No help for her meeting with the Florida straights and gulf.

The GFS is just being stupid. If this went North of the islands, it would possibly Bomb out as Levi and several Mets suggested it could. I just don’t see it going North of the islands at this point. It’s getting way too close already

before we diss the gfs run, the hwrf has liked this lets stay to the right idea for days now and to be fair its done the best so far...i rip the gfs and hwrf often but maybe they are on to something

HWRF crossroad is next 12 hrs, will it jump N and follow it’s way R outlier track well above the big islands or will it come in line and go through or skirt big islands... We should know maybe 12z or 18z...

[tolakram]

saved loop

[FLpanhandle91]

Interesting to note that the banding coming up through the BVI area is still obviously rotating around the LLC to the northwest of PR. I would imagine that, as Aric said, once it gets north of the Mona Passage, banding may pick up around that LLC before it takes over.

[blp]

Special update.

Tropical Storm Laura Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
1200 PM AST Sat Aug 22 2020

...LAURA STRENGTHENS SOME...

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the maximum
sustained winds in Tropical Storm Laura have increased to near 45
mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. These winds are occurring mainly
in a band to the south of Vieques and eastern Puerto Rico.


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM AST...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 67.2W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WSW OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Pasch

I am sorry I just don't see llc at that location. With Radar data why is this location being used? IMO we either go with the MLC which I think is reached the surface or the llc north of PR. Either one would fine for me but its not at 17.8N 67.2W.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/TJUA2/loop.html

[stormwatcher95]

T#s climbing again, weakening flag off for the first time since yesterday afternoon.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 AUG 2020 Time : 155021 UTC
Lat : 17:51:14 N Lon : 67:01:18 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 / 995.8mb/ 35.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.8 3.0

Center Temp : -49.7C Cloud Region Temp : -55.4C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.75 ARC in LT GRAY

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 180nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES16
Satellite Viewing Angle : 22.9 degrees

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1297203187565428737

[northjaxpro]

Interesting to note that the banding coming up through the BVI area is still obviously rotating around the LLC to the northwest of PR. I would imagine that, as Aric said, once it gets north of the Mona Passage, banding may pick up around that LLC before it takes over.

Yeah, clearly you can see the inflow well with the LLC near the Mona Passage .
.

[tolakram]

Nice big image loop with both storms.

https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/vis_sqrt/goes16_gulf.html

[MGC]

Laura's MCL is clearly moving WNW per San Juan radar. Should pass over SE tip of PR then traverse north shore of DR. I'm expecting the LLCC to reform in the Atlantic off the coast of Hispaniola later tonight or tomorrow. Once the cyclone clears Hispaniola it should start to intensify at a steady rate. Still a threat to the Keys and north gulf coast. Just my opinion and not an official forecast.....MGC