ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

-75C to -80C and deeper convection has almost fully wrapped around the center, with only a bit of the E side lacking it. Just one hot tower there should be enough to complete the <-75C ring and close to eyewall.

It’s crazy that Delta is still intensifying and still this impressive despite far lower SSTs than when Laura was in the Gulf.

[USTropics]

Can someone who knows what they are talking about (unlike me, lol) comment on the status of the steering? Is it still looking to make the predicted northeast curve at some point? Is anything weaker/stronger/faster/slower than it should be at this point?

Here is the 12z GFS forecast for about right now. Delta is on the western periphery of the high pressure area located over Florida (in red). This is preventing Delta from moving towards the east and will eventually begin to allow the system to move a bit more NNE as it rounds the periphery. Over Texas, we have an evident trough (easier to see in 500mb but denoted in pink here). This will also induce a SW to NE flow once Delta rounds the periphery of the ridge. What to still watch for are wobbles here and there and when it exactly rounds the periphery and begins to move NNE, but the current track (yellow) is of high confidence given the steering parameters.

[kevin]

Eyewall has become really solid. Next recon mission should find a major.

https://i.imgur.com/bI2Fe4o.jpg

Speaking of recon, when will the next plane arrive at Delta?

[xironman]

Both planes are heading out now. When is the next mission scheduled?

AF headed out now.

[supercane4867]

-75C to -80C and deeper convection has almost fully wrapped around the center, with only a bit of the E side lacking it. Just one hot tower there should be enough to complete the <-75C ring and close to eyewall.

It’s crazy that Delta is still intensifying and still this impressive despite far lower SSTs than when Laura was in the Gulf.

Ocean conditions under Delta are not much cooler than they were under Laura. SSTs are over 29C at Delta's current position and OHC is probably even higher than Laura had when it was CAT4.

[tiger_deF]

Feel free to correct me if I am totally off base but I think that while the SST's are somewhat lower than when Laura was in this part of the basin, upper level conditions are more ideal and Delta is taking more energy from atmospheric interactions and CAPE/TPW than Laura did

[northjaxpro]

This is a significant hurricane. 100mph winds is nothing to take lightly.

Again my concern is because this is 'only' a cat 2, aome may not take it as serious as Laura, especially surge wise. Given the large windfield the surge could potentially be as high if not higher than Laura in a lot of areas and this may catch people off guard.

Very, very good points, Jr0d. I'd bet that anyone who went through the "non-major" Hurricane Ike would agree with you whole-heartedly while trying to shake off bursts of PTSD.

This is the TENTH Forecasted storm tracking for Louisiana so far this year! My Goodness, we are all suffering Hurricane PTSD, Hurricane Fatigue, JUST DANG SICK OF HURRICANES SYNDROME... right now.

But in all seriousness. Im pretty certain I have weather PTSD from the 2016 floods. Heck we had no warning, that was just a simple summer rainstorm, and pretty much everywhere in a 50 mile radius from me was underwater, and I live in a place that had never flooded prior to that, besides March that same year, which was ALSO from just a rain storm. I dont trust any weather anymore. And ironically, my Nickname Stormgodess has nothing to do with this forum, I picked it all the way back in the early days of the net in 1995, when sitting on my porch enjoying a rain storm.

Yeah, I certainly understand your weariness, as well as everyone out there in Louisiana this season. My heart goes out to all out there! It just has been insane indeed this activity this season. I am praying for everyone out there and all I can say is to be safe and Godspeed during this crisis with Delta!! This too shall pass, and God willing you and everyone in the path of this dangerous cyclone will persevere!!!

[aspen]

-75C to -80C and deeper convection has almost fully wrapped around the center, with only a bit of the E side lacking it. Just one hot tower there should be enough to complete the <-75C ring and close to eyewall.

It’s crazy that Delta is still intensifying and still this impressive despite far lower SSTs than when Laura was in the Gulf.

Ocean conditions under Delta are not much cooler than they were under Laura. SSTs are over 29C at Delta's current position and OHC is probably even higher than Laura had when it was CAT4.

It may be over a nice spot of high SSTs and OHC, but compared to when Laura bombed out, the Gulf has been massively cooled. Delta has gotten lucky with its position.

[Hurricane Mike]

I'm not seeing any shear over Delta right now. It's definitely taking advantage of whatever it can.

[FLpanhandle91]

Absolutely perfect outflow.

[supercane4867]

[ElectricStorm]

https://i.imgur.com/mvzKUih.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/fPqUF9H.gif

Should be a major pretty soon I would think

[northjaxpro]

https://i.imgur.com/mvzKUih.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/fPqUF9H.gif

Should be a major pretty soon I would think

I think it is already there.

[aspen]

Recon will arrive at Delta roughly 3 hours or so after the last center pass, which means there’s been enough time for a significant pressure drop. It could be as low as the high 950s based on Delta’s improving structure.

[MississippiWx]

The importance of SSTs is sometimes overrated. Yes, they help tremendously, but upper level winds and dry air mean so much more in how they affect a hurricane. It’s why we can see major hurricanes in the subtropical Atlantic. A slow moving hurricane is also a lot different than a fast moving one. SSTs won’t affect Delta as much as increasing shear and dry air. Combine that with declining SSTs and you have a recipe for a weakening storm. Don’t think it’s going to weaken as much as we would like, though.

[GCANE]

Oohh $h!t

The cold pool just significantly deepened.
Appears COAMPS was correct.

[kevin]

Wow, Delta looks like a textbook cat 3 hurricane at the moment. Goes to show how much of a difference an eye can make. I'd be surprised if recon doesn't find at least a minimal cat 3, tbh I expect it to perhaps even be a high-end cat 3 by the time they get there.

[GCANE]

Appears to still be a slight thermal inversion below 1 km.
If that breaks, the cork pops

[tomatkins]

-75C to -80C and deeper convection has almost fully wrapped around the center, with only a bit of the E side lacking it. Just one hot tower there should be enough to complete the <-75C ring and close to eyewall.

It’s crazy that Delta is still intensifying and still this impressive despite far lower SSTs than when Laura was in the Gulf.

Sure - but Laura also maxed out at like 40 mph stronger than Delta is right now.

[GCANE]

Big north eyewall tower going off.
If we get another, I would say the cork popped.