ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Look how far the moisture extends from Marco on the 12z gfs. How does that play into Laura?

[FLpanhandle91]

looks like the NHC just split the difference. discussions say the center location is uncertain..


I would say as the llc north of PR gets north of the MONA passage it will gain back the southerly inflow and start to pop.

Agreed.

[OuterBanker]

I know that NHC has said NNW for Marco, but it has been riding 85 W since yesterday. It must mean NNNNW.

[Aric Dunn]

Lets do an experiment.. lets cut out the rest of the system ( so everyone is not distracted) and just look north of PR.. see any circulations. I do .. lol

[eastcoastFL]

I know that NHC has said NNW for Marco, but it has been riding 85 W since yesterday. It must mean NNNNW.

I’ve noticed every storm this year their discussion has said “lower confidence than normal”. Forecasting is just extremely tough this season and the models have been no help. It’s almost like a constant Nowcast.

[eastcoastFL]

Lets do an experiment.. lets cut out the rest of the system ( so everyone is not distracted) and just look north of PR.. see any circulations. I do .. lol


https://i.ibb.co/fpDsJZ7/10.gif

Very much so. 12z gfs seems to agree with you that the center will be NW of PR in 12hrs

[CourierPR]

Lets do an experiment.. lets cut out the rest of the system ( so everyone is not distracted) and just look north of PR.. see any circulations. I do .. lol

So you think we will see reformation north of the island?

[eastcoastFL]

Lets do an experiment.. lets cut out the rest of the system ( so everyone is not distracted) and just look north of PR.. see any circulations. I do .. lol


https://i.ibb.co/fpDsJZ7/10.gif

Looks like the gfs wants to ride just north of the islands keeping Laura from degrading but also keeping her from bombing also for now. No help for her meeting with the Florida straights and gulf.

[Jr0d]

Lets do an experiment.. lets cut out the rest of the system ( so everyone is not distracted) and just look north of PR.. see any circulations. I do .. lol


https://i.ibb.co/fpDsJZ7/10.gif

Wow...if it reforms N. of Puerto Rico, I will give the HWRF the crown that previously belonged to the EURO.

Not looking good for me if this scenario plays out, while I am prepared most of Key West is not.

[Cat5James]

Look how far the moisture extends from Marco on the 12z gfs. How does that play into Laura?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020082212/gfs_ir_watl_2.png

That moisture is actually from an upper level trough that was already in place.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think there will be pretty substantial land interaction, and this will be a wave once it hits the GOM, But I think the wave can develop quickly pretty in a day and 1/2, but we will have to see how much.

[Jr0d]

Lets do an experiment.. lets cut out the rest of the system ( so everyone is not distracted) and just look north of PR.. see any circulations. I do .. lol


So you think we will see reformation north of the island?

This was what the HWRF was showing. If it happens WOW!

Also for me in Key West, it means the probability of hurricane condition goes from less than 10% to over 50%.

[SFLcane]

Lets do an experiment.. lets cut out the rest of the system ( so everyone is not distracted) and just look north of PR.. see any circulations. I do .. lol


https://i.ibb.co/fpDsJZ7/10.gif

Hmmm....

[StPeteMike]

Open wave talk is pretty silly at this point. Some of the same posters saying it will be a wave today was saying it will be a wave yesterday..... and we can see that isn’t the case. Can we put the wave talk to rest?

[ConvergenceZone]

Looks like the gfs wants to ride just north of the islands keeping Laura from degrading but also keeping her from bombing also for now. No help for her meeting with the Florida straights and gulf.

The GFS is just being stupid. If this went North of the islands, it would possibly Bomb out as Levi and several Mets suggested it could. I just don’t see it going North of the islands at this point. It’s getting way too close already

[Cat5James]

Open wave talk is pretty silly at this point. Some of the same posters saying it will be a wave today was saying it will be a wave yesterday..... and we can see that isn’t the case. Can we put the wave talk to rest?

Latest GFS run shows tropical storm thru the FL straits... seriously doubt "open wave" comes to fruition

[eastcoastFL]

The panhandle and Alabama coast maybe looking at 4-5 days of heavy rain starting tomorrow from these two storms if the 12z gfs played out


Starts Sunday




Just keeps going

[eastcoastFL]

Open wave talk is pretty silly at this point. Some of the same posters saying it will be a wave today was saying it will be a wave yesterday..... and we can see that isn’t the case. Can we put the wave talk to rest?

Latest GFS run shows tropical storm thru the FL straits... seriously doubt "open wave" comes to fruition

The odds are shrinking for an open wave. Not 0% but not likely

[jlauderdal]

Looks like the gfs wants to ride just north of the islands keeping Laura from degrading but also keeping her from bombing also for now. No help for her meeting with the Florida straights and gulf.

The GFS is just being stupid. If this went North of the islands, it would possibly Bomb out as Levi and several Mets suggested it could. I just don’t see it going North of the islands at this point. It’s getting way too close already

before we diss the gfs run, the hwrf has liked this lets stay to the right idea for days now and to be fair its done the best so far...i rip the gfs and hwrf often but maybe they are on to something

[ConvergenceZone]

Open wave talk is pretty silly at this point. Some of the same posters saying it will be a wave today was saying it will be a wave yesterday..... and we can see that isn’t the case. Can we put the wave talk to rest?

The only open wave talk I see is if it transverses the land. Many Mets are saying the same thing. BUT if it can avoid MOST of the land, a wave is off the table